I am long and have been , now for over 3 years. I will be happy when we start seeing Triferic sales. If we get Triferic sales, then the price goes up and that will make me happy. I am eager to see actual sales, not more promises. I still want to know why Calcitriol has not been launched and I believe that mgmt. should explain why at the next CC.
I am not whining, but I do expect mgmt. to perform by bringing some good news about Triferic sales during the next CC. I invest in companies to make money, plain and simple. I do not bash nor am I a pumper like you. I care about mgmt. beating targets. If RMTI can generate healthy Triferic sales in 2016, I will be pleased because that should translate into a higher share price. If we don't get a good outlook for 2016 sales, I will be unhappy with mgmt. If you considerate that whining, so be it. I considerate it holding mgmt. accountable.
By the way, why has Calcitriol not been launched yet? I expect Rob to address this at the next CC as well
I agree that off shore production will be required. Additionally, the depletion rate for shale is something like 30% the 1st year; so, you have to keep drilling. If OPEC decides to cut back (doubtful), then we would see oil spike and NE would also go up. I think the next mtg is Dec 4
I listened to the COP conference call. Their logic is that they can produce oil cheaper from shale and decided to cancel future deep water projects (per their CEO).
I believe :
1) Demand will continue to increase at least 1 million barrels/day for the next decade (minimum)
2) Existing oil reserves will continue to be depleted annually
3) The big majors are cutting back on exploration and within a couple of years, you will see demand supply and crude will be back over $80+ again.
In the mean time, specifically, 2016, it will be hard to expect much from NE and other off shore drillers. My hope is that NE can extend contracts, accept lower day rates, etc to maximize earnings in a bad market. I hope that NE can produce $2 eps in 2016, but I admit that this is probably high considering the existing market. That's why I wanted pismire's opinion as he seems to understand the industry better than I do
good luck...I'm holding for a couple of years
Have you made an eps estimate for 2016?
The analyst consensus estimate has 2015 eps dropping from about $2.50 to about $1.20 (Credit Suisse to $1)
and then significantly lower in 2017.
I see that COP is going to cut out deep water drilling and am interested in hearing from XOM and CVX later today
What is your take?
I'm also looking at some oil plays. What do you like in the energy space?
By the way, since I got out of Vale, it still seems the right (lucky) call on my part. IO has dropped
Some of these posters need to take a basic course in financial analysis in their local community college before embarrassing themselves further
From today's CC:
Conoco said it would further cut its 2015 capital budget, to $10.2 billion from $11.0 billion.
On a conference call with analysts, executives said Conoco planned to exit all deepwater exploration by 2017 as other projects win out in the budgeting process. Currently, it has deepwater operations in the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Senegal, Angola and Canada.
"Within our portfolio, (deepwater exploration) doesn't look like an opportunity that competes for capital," Chief Financial Officer Jeff Sheets said in an interview.
I suggest that you take an entry level course on stock market investing. The share price of a company's common stock goes up when they increase their earnings over time. WMT has told the world that earnings are going down the next 2 years. That's why the share price is going down. Amazon is eating their lunch
This was a fantastic qtr and we should be up tomorrow. CC is in the morning and the guidance will probably dictate price direction, but this was a great qtr
The long term value of any stock is completely dependent upon the company's future earnings. Off Shore Drillers are in a very cyclical industry and this creates a lot of uncertainty. Right now, I doubt if anyone knows how long the day rates for drillers will continue to deteriorate. Like you, I have heard that there will be more rigs cold stacked and the projected price of oil is from $20 (Goldman Sachs) to $70+ (T Boone Pickens).
I try to look at the long term economics of the industry and surmise the following:
1) Oil demand will continue to grow at 1%+ per annum, just as it has for the last 50 years. The world's population grows by about 70 million per year and we need oil
2) Once oil is consumed, that oil is gone. The existing oil wells have depletion rates ranging from 2% to 40%(shale). That alone says that you will need more oil
3) The big oil companies have slashed there 2015 and 2016 exploration budgets and that will reduce future oil supply coming to the market
4) OPEC is pumping at a maximum rate right now, but it is true that Iran will come on line in the 2nd half of 2016
Wall Street does not like uncertainty, but as soon as WS sees things start to turn around, the Off Shore Drillers will pop. The WS vultures will swoop in and start buying before the actual earnings have improved. I'm betting that will start in late 2016, but it is a guess. It will happen, but it is hard to own and hold out of favor industry securities