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Vale S.A. Message Board

typea1949 294 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Dec 20, 2002
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  • Reply to

    Entire industry out of favor

    by typea1949 21 hours ago
    typea1949 typea1949 19 hours ago Flag

    rpal3,
    All of these stocks are trading a multi-year lows. I believe that in the 4th qtr, if NE decides to cut the dividend, they may go after Atwood. They have won a $136 million settlement and the NE CEO stated that he expects to be paid without further litigation. That will give him more funds to go after an acquisition or to just ride out this storm, which will eventually clear
    good luck

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Entire industry out of favor

    by typea1949 21 hours ago
    typea1949 typea1949 21 hours ago Flag

    Thanks,
    I'm getting ready to go out of the country for a few weeks and if you read something of value, please post here of NE board
    thx

    Sentiment: Hold

  • I own NE, but this entire industry is out of favor and will continue to be so until the day rates start to recover. If you look a t a chart for SDRL,RIG,ATW,NE,ESV, etc. , you will see that we are close to all time lows on a split adjusted basis

    It takes a steel nerve to hold these stocks until the cycle swings in favor of the drillers. It will swing, but there is a lot of uncertainty concerning how long that will take . This weeks reports from BP,XOM,CVX,TOT all paint a pretty bleak outlook for the price of crude for the foreseeable future. I'm selling calls and using the revenue to buy puts

    good luck

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Taking its toll

    by typea1949 Jul 31, 2015 4:56 PM
    typea1949 typea1949 Aug 1, 2015 7:46 AM Flag

    It is possible and I will be buying some puts to protect me on the downside the next time we get an uptick

  • Reply to

    Taking its toll

    by typea1949 Jul 31, 2015 4:56 PM
    typea1949 typea1949 Jul 31, 2015 7:24 PM Flag

    tru
    When you :
    1) see day rates start to go up
    2) crude prices go up
    and basically when the balance between demand and supply eliminates the current 2 mm/day supply excess

    No one knows the answer to that, but when the majors cut exploration capex, that reduces future supply. Depletion has a natural reduction in supply every year . When the shale drillers cut back production because they can't make money and get a loan for new leases/drilling
    All of these things are happening and they will all have a positive effect on future off shore drilling requirements

    This is a cyclical industry and the cycle will move back in favor, but it will take some time unless some exogenous event (war,hurricanes, etc) take place

    Sentiment: Hold

  • typea1949 by typea1949 Jul 31, 2015 4:56 PM Flag

    Virtually all of the oil majors and super majors announced personnel and capex cut backs. The shale E&P companies are also being pummeled by low oil prices. Negative sentiment abounds and almost all pundits are calling for lower oil

    I would say that 1 more push down and we will have hit the bottom for WTI. I doubt that it will see a 3 handle

    NE is a long term investment for me and I will wait for the eventual turn in the cycle.

    good luck

    Sentiment: Hold

  • The number of US oil rigs in use rose by 5 this week to 664.

    This marks the second straight week of an uptick in the rig count, and the 4th time in 5 weeks the number of rigs in use has risen. Last week, the number of oil rigs in use rose by 21 to 659.

    The number of natural gas rigs in use fell by 7 this week, bringing the total US rig count — which combined oil and gas rigs — to 874, down 2 from last week.

    On Friday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was down more than 2% at around $47.50 a barrel. Last week, WTI fell into a bear market after stabilizing through late spring.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • typea1949 typea1949 Jul 31, 2015 1:16 PM Flag

    That what I've been told by some Drs. that are in the field. In any event, I sold enough at $14 to pay for my remaining shares. I've been wideky criticized on this board for doing so, but in these small biotech companies a lot can go wrong and the share price can be very volatile
    good luck and let's hope that the CEO has good things to say on the upcoming CC

    Sentiment: Hold

  • typea1949 typea1949 Jul 31, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    The pumper think that as soon as it is launched that the share price will skyrocket. I hope that it does, but the big price move will come once we can see how much profit that Triferic will make in 2016/17
    good luck

    Sentiment: Hold

  • typea1949 typea1949 Jul 31, 2015 8:50 AM Flag

    Exxon and other oil majors are cutting capex. Unless they could get a super bargain, I seriously doubt that Rex Tillerson would buy any of FCX oil holdings at this time

  • Reply to

    NE will begin to.....

    by doktorpink Jul 30, 2015 11:04 AM
    typea1949 typea1949 Jul 31, 2015 8:29 AM Flag

    I own the stock and sell calls to increase my returns while I wait for it to eventually get back to $20+ in a couple of years. If day rates for future contracts plummet, they will have to cut the dividend. In the conf. call, the CEO hinted that the drillers would cut out the older rigs and day rates should still be good. The analysts are now modelling lower day rates in their eps projects. 2016 consensus eps for most off shore drillers is down quite a bit compared to 2015 results. If we get better than projected results for 2016, we might have a chance at $20 next year. Right now, it is a big guessing game. Eventually, the industry will be back in favor and large returns will be made for those that hold
    good luck

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    NE will begin to.....

    by doktorpink Jul 30, 2015 11:04 AM
    typea1949 typea1949 Jul 31, 2015 6:54 AM Flag

    I did, but the article came out before the CC. Shell seems to have changed their opinion with their CEO stating that he now is expecting lower prices to last longer

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    NE will begin to.....

    by doktorpink Jul 30, 2015 11:04 AM
    typea1949 typea1949 Jul 30, 2015 11:08 PM Flag

    Read the prior post. It is 55% in 2014

  • Reply to

    New Credit Suisse report

    by typea1949 Jul 30, 2015 4:37 PM
    typea1949 typea1949 Jul 30, 2015 6:29 PM Flag

    I agree. I am more concerned that the analysts consensus eps estimates for 2016 are way below 2015 numbers. Once we get to Oct/Nov we should have a better view of 2016

  • typea1949 typea1949 Jul 30, 2015 6:26 PM Flag

    The launch is not the issue. ISince the CEO said in the last CC that Triferic would launch by August, I assume that it will.

    Here is the issue:
    With bundled pricing, how much profit will Triferic yield in 2016 and subsequent years. Eventually, this company will trade on fundamentals...sales and profits. At this stage, I have no idea what level of sales/profits that one can expect in 2016

  • Reply to

    Is there still a dividend for NE

    by racer115867 Jul 30, 2015 6:16 PM
    typea1949 typea1949 Jul 30, 2015 6:21 PM Flag

    racer, read the conference call transcript and make up your own mind. The question was asked by the CS analyst (Greg Lewis) and addressed by the NE CEO

  • Reply to

    New Credit Suisse report

    by typea1949 Jul 30, 2015 4:37 PM
    typea1949 typea1949 Jul 30, 2015 6:19 PM Flag

    I agree, and I posted the analysts' commentary so that a discussion could be started.

  • Reply to

    New Credit Suisse report

    by typea1949 Jul 30, 2015 4:37 PM
    typea1949 typea1949 Jul 30, 2015 4:39 PM Flag

    CS is predicting that earnings will drop from $2.40/share in 2015 to $.15/share in 2017. Ouch

  • It Is Good To Have Backlog
    ■ Adjusting Earnings. We are increasing our 2015 EPS estimates to $2.40
    (from $2.24) to account for the Q2 earnings beat. Our 2015/2016 EPS
    estimates are 10%/18% above/below consensus estimates. We are rolling
    out our 2017 EPS estimate at $0.15 (consensus is $0.35). Tough trajectory.
    ■ Better Positioned Than Most For Downturn. Backlog stands at $8.7B
    (down from $9.4B in Q1) which should provide solid cash flows through
    2016 and into 2017. Additionally, asset quality matters and with 10 (6G+)
    floaters (63% of floaters) and 10 high spec Jackups (67% of jackups), NE
    looks well positioned for the current down-cycle and the eventual up-cycle.
    ■ Cash Flow In Focus. NE should generate $1.2B in OCF in 2014 (cash flow
    before dividends/CAPEX) which points to a 30% payout of OCF to fund the
    dividend. We expect OCF of $900M in 2016 and $700M in 2017 which
    pushes the 2017 payout ratio to 50%. That leaves CFO of $350M in 2017
    leaving room for maintenance CAPEX (no newbuilds) and debt repayments.
    NE has a $350M note maturing in August which NE expects to retire with
    cash and its revolver. It then has $600M in maturities through March 2017.
    ■ Not Me, You. Industry generally believes ~50 floaters need to be retired to
    balance the market. The problem is twofold, 50 floaters have already been
    removed from the marketed fleet (low hanging fruit) and managements
    generally feel their fleets are right sized. However, should the market remain
    weak (what we expect) we see the potential for NE to stack another 2-3
    floaters – what the market needs. NE has 1 floater idle but also has 3 sub-
    6G floaters rolling off contract over the next year. The other problem is the
    world needs midwater rigs which means a squeeze is coming – most likely
    on the less capable Deepwater floaters. This will take time.

  • When BP came out yesterday and said that we would have lower oil prices for a long time and Shell concurred this morning, the entire sector went down. Both companies announced employee cutbacks and reduction in exploratory capex budgets.

    Tomorrow, Exxon and Chevron report. If they also announce further cutbacks, the drillers will go down again.

    NE is a well run company, but it might not recover until 2016/7.

    good luck

    Sentiment: Hold

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