If the product launches are on track to meet mgmt's. June/July target, we go up. If we can't get meaningful Triferic sales by the 4th quarter, then Brean Capital's view will get the nod and we will go down. It is all up to RMTI's mgmt. team. Like you, I hope that mgmt. will surprise us with good news on/before the May conference call
I have read your posts for a long time. You seem to know what is going on in the industry. Triferic was approved by the FDA; so, I don't have any concerns about patient safety. I am trying to get some actual data about the status of both Triferic and to a lesser extent the Calcitriol launch. Mgmt. stated that both products would be launched by June/July. So, where do we stand regarding the launch?
Citi Research issued a very bearish report on iron ore this morning. The bank now sees the price of iron ore to fall to $37 per tonne in the second-half this year, which is bad, and that the low price will stay at $40 per tonne until end of 2018, which is worse. Ore closed at $47.53 on Friday and Citi’s new price target implies another 22.2% downside.
Oversupply is a big problem. “Production plans of Big 4 miners remained largely intact with Rio and BHP revving up expansions and Vale’s southern expansion starting up. Roy Hill and Minas Rio will also be ramping up production of nearly 80 Mt/y of combined capacity,” wrote analyst Clarke Wilkins and team.
Global deflation is another problem. Falling diesel prices and lower freight cost are bringing down production cost, which makes whose who remain in the market “increasingly resilient.” “FX movements have also helped iron ore producers, with currencies of virtually every significant exporter having depreciated versus the USD.” In other words, the iron ore producers’ margins are firmer than thought.
I've heard that technology has improved such that $50+ WTI can be produced at a good profit in the Baaken
I prefer XOP and recently bought some at $47. WTI should be at $70+ within 12 months
Do you have a view on copper?
Unfortunately, he was correct in predicting Vale's price decline. What is your view regarding the current and future outlook for iron ore (IO62) pricing?
I welcome views from both bears and bulls
How many buyers are like Kellerman, i.e., waiting for more data before purchasing. The Brean Capital analyst argued that the future Triferic sales potential was greatly overstated.
We need to see actual sales for Triferic. Once we get this, the share price will go up. I am still hopeful that RMTI mgmt. will launch Triferic by June/July
The May conference call should provide an update on Triferic launch status
I remember when you were very bullish on Vale and SDRL. When you turned bearish, also got bearish on iron ore and got out last October at $11.
It still looks like there is more supply of iron ore than demand. When do you think the supply/demand imbalance will change?
Are things getting any better in Brazil?
What are your thoughts on Seadrill?
I currently have no position in Vale nor Seadrill, but will get back when the bottoming process is reversed
There better not be an announcement of a delay. WS will punish the share price and you will see single digits again. I'm hoping to get news of a Triferic license agreement before the CC
I am just as disgusted with the price action as your are. I also own PCYC and Perrigo. Both are being bought out and both have had great price action. I only hope that we don't have any more launch delays. There is absolutely no accuse for Calcitriol not launching on time. Originally, Calcitriol was supposed to be launched by last December. These tiny companies just don't have much personnel expertise and launching a product is a big job. I've had this well over 2 years now and will be happy to see $15 again
I agree. With these smaller biopharma. cos., they will move only when they show tangible sales results. The successful Triferic launch will definitely move the price up. I eagerly await some positive license agreement news
I would take a lot less than $30 and run. This industry has been out of favor. Just look at GILD and CELG...even the big boys are getting trashed.
I am hoping that mgmt. makes good on their goal of launching both calcitriol and triferic by July. If that happens, the share price will go up.
I've owned this stock for over 2 years and I would like to see the price going up. I understand the long term approach to investing, but I am disappointed that we have not taken out the previous $15 high by now. It is very troubling that the short interest is so high. I expect mgmt. to successfully launch Triferic and Calcitriol by July (per their February conf. call). I believe that if we got some news of a signed Triferic license agreement that the share price would go up a few points. If Baxter offered $20, I would take it and agree that " a bird in the hand....)". Good luck
I await the May conference call
The price will not go up until we get solid, verifiable news on Triferic sales. I'm as irritated as you are, but until I read something negative regarding Triferic, I am holding an unhedged position in RMTI. I expect news of a Triferic license agreement to happen soon and the shares will then go up
License agreement to sell Triferic would be nice to hear. Only positive sales related news will really make a difference and not some numbers on a chart
Who knows why a stock makes a short term move, but if we get news of a Triferic license agreement signing, you will see a lot more up days
You might be correct, but be very careful until the 10:30 inventory numbers come out