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Pioneer Natural Resources Co. Message Board

tyroneyeah 33 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 14, 2014 2:57 PM Member since: May 4, 2001
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  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Mar 13, 2014 12:32 AM Flag

    Nope, noob. You can react tomorrow to what I said.

    I'm not here to help you or to only post my ideas during trading hours. Geez.

    Are you a socialist?

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Mar 13, 2014 12:30 AM Flag

    All good points, but again, I don't hear any explanation for the conspicuous LACK of ANY SIGNIFICANT CUSTOMER WINS IN THE LAST 3-4 months.

    Don't forget that a lot of GOGO revenue is on new plane installs too.

    Comments anyone?

  • As much as I like GOGO, today was probably smart money getting out before earnings...

    GOGO will really have to impress the Street with blowout numbers for the stock to rally from here. I think, Q4 earnings will be lackluster and Q1 guidance will disappoint bigtime and the stock could go below $20 tomorrow again. Here's my rationale:

    1. Q4 revenues have been adversely impacted by airport closures due to bad weather.

    2. HUGE Flight Cancellations all the way through Q1. Because they're reporting so late, Q1 is almost already over, they already have knowledge about 2.5 months of the 3 month quarter's worth of revenues.

    3. There were NO SIGNIFICANT CUSTOMER WIN ANNOUNCEMENTS DURING ALL OF Q1!! They lost the Canadian Westjet deal to Panasonic, which wasn't a big deal, but I'm concerned that the pace of customer deals seems to have slowed.

    I was bullish on GOGO, but have decided this quarter isn't going to be the blowout I had hoped for so I sold before earnings.

    Would like to hear comments from others..

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Mar 5, 2014 12:31 AM Flag

    Even at the low bond interest rate, convert interest payments on $2B will continue to make it unlikely that TSLA will show a profit.

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Mar 4, 2014 9:40 AM Flag

    Ummm, the truth hurts? Why do you think Morgan SCAMley has to come out with more hype to support the house of cards they created. Just imagine all the class action lawsuits in the future like the ones hitting SCTY in the past few days... TSLA is next.

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Mar 3, 2014 6:01 PM Flag

    Today was the 4th day of short margin calls. Most have been forcibly liquidated, so no more short-buy-to-cover activity starting tomorrow.

    Lot of air below.

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Feb 20, 2014 2:31 PM Flag

    ThisRavi, have you read anything that would indicate the timeframe for lawsuit dismissal?

    My guess is it could drag along for weeks or months...

  • Reply to

    Huge Revenue MISS!

    by tyroneyeah Feb 10, 2014 4:32 PM
    tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Feb 10, 2014 10:40 PM Flag

    Maybe an analyst will ask a probing question in the CONFERENCE CALL about the strange new line item called "SALES OF PURCHASED OIL & GAS" which added $139M to "revenue."

    Without that $139M of "revenue," the company would have missed EPS estimates by a longshot (EPS WOULD BE ONLY BREAKEVEN rather than non-GAAP stated $1.00/share EPS). This is because their Non-GAAP income was $140M, same as the "SALES OF PURCHASED OIL & GAS" revenue.

    But now I see, they had $139M of "PURCHASED OIL & GAS" on the expense side too!! So buying & selling oil & gas was a wash, but it deceptively makes it look like the company's revenue didn't have a sequential decline -- when in fact it did!!

    On the expense side for Q4 as compared to Q3:

    --"General & Administrative" ballooned 30% from Q3 to Q4 (increase of $23M)

    --"Other Expense" almost TRIPLED from Q3 to Q4 up $47M from $25M in Q3

    In other words, EXPENSES INCREASED DRAMATICALLY in Q4, while revenues declined significantly.

    I hope analysts drill down and find out what's going on, especially with the "SALES OF PURCHASED OIL & GAS" line item.

  • tyroneyeah by tyroneyeah Feb 10, 2014 4:32 PM Flag

    They reported $809M "Oil & Gas Revenues" in Q4 VERSUS $908M revenues last quarter.

    That's $99M LESS quarter over quarter!

    Then they "pad" this quarter's income with a strange new line item called "Sales of purchased oil and gas" for $139M.... What's that about? Since when is PXD in the business of PURCHASING oil and gas??

    And then they have a HUGE $1.5B writedown for "Impairment of Oil & Gas Properties" that wasn't on the Q3 report either.

    My sense is Analysts will issue downgrades based on the recent run-up and the fact that production decreased substantially. Have to wait another quarter for the company to prove itself.

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Feb 10, 2014 3:04 PM Flag

    The forgoing scenario doesn't even take into account that EXPENSES were HIGHER in Q3 because PXD had to repair/replace damaged assets from the Nov. freeze. So it could be a Breakeven or Loss on the quarter.

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Feb 10, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    $29.8M is only 21c EPS, not 99c! Huge miss!

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Feb 10, 2014 2:18 PM Flag

    (Continued...)

    9) So (if expenses the same as Q3) we would normally subtract the production shortfall revenues and lower product prices from Net Income last quarter: $91.1M - $61.3M = $29.8M Net income in Q4...

  • Now that we know the freeze-related loss in PXD's production and their Q4 total production was only 173 BPOE, let’s see how that impacts earnings...

    I'm guessing the following:

    1) Their prior Q4 guidance in the Nov 3rd Earnings Report was for 179 MBOEPD to 184 MBOEPD. Midpoint of that guidance would be 181.5 MBOEPD.

    2) If their revised guidance indicates that they averaged only 173 MBOEPD, that’s 8.5 MBOEPD less than guidance. Or 8.5/181.5 = about 4.7% LESS THAN guidance

    3) Last quarter (Q3) coincidentally averaged 173 MBOEPD, so for that amount of production, Oil & Gas revenues were $908M.

    4) So Q4 revenue estimates need to be reduced by about 4.7% for the lower production rates mostly due to the November freeze: $908M X 4.7% = $42.7M LESS in revenues based on revised production rates.


    5) One would think that would be a fairly good estimate for revenues for Q4, however the price of WTI was high during Q3 and had dropped about 7-9% on average for the Q4 period. This means Q4 WTI revenues might be 7-9% less due to lower selling price per BOE. But some of PXD’s production is Nat Gas and NGL’s. Those prices were slightly higher in Q4 vs. Q3, but not enough to balance out the lower WTI selling prices. Some reports have pegged PXD’s Nat Gas and NGL production at about 38% of total. Their hedging may have mitigated some of this loss in expected revenues, but perhaps not.

    6) Therefore, for now, assume the estimate for Q4 revenue need not be significantly discounted for lower Q4 WTI pricing by a nominal 2% less (e.g. $908M X 2% = $18.6M)

    7) Combining the $42.7M (Q4 production shortfall) with the $18.6M revenue decline due to declining WTI product pricing yields $61.3M less than the $908M revenues last quarter.

    8) Now, on to INCOME: Last quarter's Q3 Net income attributable to common stockholders was $91.1M for the same 173 MBPOEPD production rate as in Q4.

    (Continued)

PXD
197.32-0.79(-0.40%)Apr 23 4:04 PMEDT

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