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Pioneer Natural Resources Co. Message Board

tyroneyeah 33 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 14, 2014 2:57 PM Member since: May 4, 2001
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  • Now that we know the freeze-related loss in PXD's production and their Q4 total production was only 173 BPOE, let’s see how that impacts earnings...

    I'm guessing the following:

    1) Their prior Q4 guidance in the Nov 3rd Earnings Report was for 179 MBOEPD to 184 MBOEPD. Midpoint of that guidance would be 181.5 MBOEPD.

    2) If their revised guidance indicates that they averaged only 173 MBOEPD, that’s 8.5 MBOEPD less than guidance. Or 8.5/181.5 = about 4.7% LESS THAN guidance

    3) Last quarter (Q3) coincidentally averaged 173 MBOEPD, so for that amount of production, Oil & Gas revenues were $908M.

    4) So Q4 revenue estimates need to be reduced by about 4.7% for the lower production rates mostly due to the November freeze: $908M X 4.7% = $42.7M LESS in revenues based on revised production rates.


    5) One would think that would be a fairly good estimate for revenues for Q4, however the price of WTI was high during Q3 and had dropped about 7-9% on average for the Q4 period. This means Q4 WTI revenues might be 7-9% less due to lower selling price per BOE. But some of PXD’s production is Nat Gas and NGL’s. Those prices were slightly higher in Q4 vs. Q3, but not enough to balance out the lower WTI selling prices. Some reports have pegged PXD’s Nat Gas and NGL production at about 38% of total. Their hedging may have mitigated some of this loss in expected revenues, but perhaps not.

    6) Therefore, for now, assume the estimate for Q4 revenue need not be significantly discounted for lower Q4 WTI pricing by a nominal 2% less (e.g. $908M X 2% = $18.6M)

    7) Combining the $42.7M (Q4 production shortfall) with the $18.6M revenue decline due to declining WTI product pricing yields $61.3M less than the $908M revenues last quarter.

    8) Now, on to INCOME: Last quarter's Q3 Net income attributable to common stockholders was $91.1M for the same 173 MBPOEPD production rate as in Q4.

    (Continued)

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Feb 10, 2014 2:18 PM Flag

    (Continued...)

    9) So (if expenses the same as Q3) we would normally subtract the production shortfall revenues and lower product prices from Net Income last quarter: $91.1M - $61.3M = $29.8M Net income in Q4...

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Feb 10, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    $29.8M is only 21c EPS, not 99c! Huge miss!

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Feb 10, 2014 3:04 PM Flag

    The forgoing scenario doesn't even take into account that EXPENSES were HIGHER in Q3 because PXD had to repair/replace damaged assets from the Nov. freeze. So it could be a Breakeven or Loss on the quarter.

  • tyroneyeah by tyroneyeah Feb 10, 2014 4:32 PM Flag

    They reported $809M "Oil & Gas Revenues" in Q4 VERSUS $908M revenues last quarter.

    That's $99M LESS quarter over quarter!

    Then they "pad" this quarter's income with a strange new line item called "Sales of purchased oil and gas" for $139M.... What's that about? Since when is PXD in the business of PURCHASING oil and gas??

    And then they have a HUGE $1.5B writedown for "Impairment of Oil & Gas Properties" that wasn't on the Q3 report either.

    My sense is Analysts will issue downgrades based on the recent run-up and the fact that production decreased substantially. Have to wait another quarter for the company to prove itself.

  • Reply to

    Huge Revenue MISS!

    by tyroneyeah Feb 10, 2014 4:32 PM
    tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Feb 10, 2014 10:40 PM Flag

    Maybe an analyst will ask a probing question in the CONFERENCE CALL about the strange new line item called "SALES OF PURCHASED OIL & GAS" which added $139M to "revenue."

    Without that $139M of "revenue," the company would have missed EPS estimates by a longshot (EPS WOULD BE ONLY BREAKEVEN rather than non-GAAP stated $1.00/share EPS). This is because their Non-GAAP income was $140M, same as the "SALES OF PURCHASED OIL & GAS" revenue.

    But now I see, they had $139M of "PURCHASED OIL & GAS" on the expense side too!! So buying & selling oil & gas was a wash, but it deceptively makes it look like the company's revenue didn't have a sequential decline -- when in fact it did!!

    On the expense side for Q4 as compared to Q3:

    --"General & Administrative" ballooned 30% from Q3 to Q4 (increase of $23M)

    --"Other Expense" almost TRIPLED from Q3 to Q4 up $47M from $25M in Q3

    In other words, EXPENSES INCREASED DRAMATICALLY in Q4, while revenues declined significantly.

    I hope analysts drill down and find out what's going on, especially with the "SALES OF PURCHASED OIL & GAS" line item.

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Feb 20, 2014 2:31 PM Flag

    ThisRavi, have you read anything that would indicate the timeframe for lawsuit dismissal?

    My guess is it could drag along for weeks or months...

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Mar 3, 2014 6:01 PM Flag

    Today was the 4th day of short margin calls. Most have been forcibly liquidated, so no more short-buy-to-cover activity starting tomorrow.

    Lot of air below.

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Mar 4, 2014 9:40 AM Flag

    Ummm, the truth hurts? Why do you think Morgan SCAMley has to come out with more hype to support the house of cards they created. Just imagine all the class action lawsuits in the future like the ones hitting SCTY in the past few days... TSLA is next.

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Mar 5, 2014 12:31 AM Flag

    Even at the low bond interest rate, convert interest payments on $2B will continue to make it unlikely that TSLA will show a profit.

  • As much as I like GOGO, today was probably smart money getting out before earnings...

    GOGO will really have to impress the Street with blowout numbers for the stock to rally from here. I think, Q4 earnings will be lackluster and Q1 guidance will disappoint bigtime and the stock could go below $20 tomorrow again. Here's my rationale:

    1. Q4 revenues have been adversely impacted by airport closures due to bad weather.

    2. HUGE Flight Cancellations all the way through Q1. Because they're reporting so late, Q1 is almost already over, they already have knowledge about 2.5 months of the 3 month quarter's worth of revenues.

    3. There were NO SIGNIFICANT CUSTOMER WIN ANNOUNCEMENTS DURING ALL OF Q1!! They lost the Canadian Westjet deal to Panasonic, which wasn't a big deal, but I'm concerned that the pace of customer deals seems to have slowed.

    I was bullish on GOGO, but have decided this quarter isn't going to be the blowout I had hoped for so I sold before earnings.

    Would like to hear comments from others..

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Mar 13, 2014 12:30 AM Flag

    All good points, but again, I don't hear any explanation for the conspicuous LACK of ANY SIGNIFICANT CUSTOMER WINS IN THE LAST 3-4 months.

    Don't forget that a lot of GOGO revenue is on new plane installs too.

    Comments anyone?

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Mar 13, 2014 12:32 AM Flag

    Nope, noob. You can react tomorrow to what I said.

    I'm not here to help you or to only post my ideas during trading hours. Geez.

    Are you a socialist?

  • Reply to

    "Explosive Demand" = new $105 target

    by metawampe Mar 5, 2014 7:38 AM
    tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Mar 17, 2014 2:56 PM Flag

    Ummm, moron, that was a pump & dump upgrade THE DAY BEFORE FEYE issued a secondary and diluted the shareholders.

    Wash, Rinse & Repeat Cycle...

    For now, the stock is going down for Lockup expiration.

    --

    March 6, 2014
    07:11 EDT FEYE FireEye files to sell 14M shares of common stock
    FireEye filed to sell 5.58M shares of common stock and holders filed to sell 8.417M shares of common stock. Morgan Stanley, Barclays, JPMorgan, Goldman, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Pacific Crest and Nomura are acting as joint book running managers for the offering.

    March 5, 2014
    07:26 EDT FEYE FireEye volatility elevated, shares at record high

    07:23 EDT FEYE FireEye price target raised to $105 from $90 at FBR Capital

  • March 11, 2014, 01:43 pm

    By Julian Hattem

    Lawmakers on the Senate Intelligence Committee are getting “very close” to a new cybersecurity bill, according to the panel's top Republican.

    “As you know we have been working on a cyber bill for years now,” Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) told President Obama’s nominee to lead the U.S. Cyber Command and National Security Agency, Vice Adm. Michael Rogers, in a hearing on Tuesday.

    “We’re getting very close to an agreement within the Intelligence Committee between the chairman and myself, on a cyber bill that is much needed. One of the key provisions, and kind of the last remaining obstacle we’ve got, is the immunity provision or the liability protection provision.”

    Lawmakers have for years pushed for a comprehensive bill to protect American financial markets, transportation systems and the electric grid in the event of a massive cyber attack.

    “I believe one of our greatest vulnerabilities is cyber attack,” said Sen. Angus King (I-Maine). "I think the next Pearl Harbor is going to be cyber. And the problem is we’re more vulnerable than many other places.”
    ....

  • Have switched from short to long becasue:

    a) There was only 15M shares in the IPO and,
    b) not all are able to sell (postponed selling due to secondary), AND
    c) Almost 3M shares traded today
    d) Not all of those eligible to sell will sell today/this week. Many will continue to hold

    THEN, one can assume much of the IPO Lockup selling has already hit the tape.

    In most IPO lockup expiration trades, there is much selling in anticipation of the Lockup expiration and postponed buying.

    That will reverse today or tomorrow, so expect upside from here.
    --

    IPO Profile. IPO Date. 09/19/13. Offer Price. $20.00. Offer Shares. 15.2 mm. Lead Manager(s). Morgan Stanley Goldman Sachs J.P. Morgan. All Underwriters.

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Mar 19, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    Again, you completely missed the point mentioned above regarding volume analysis:

    a) Many of the potential lockup sellers will have sold (4M shares traded today against 15M total in the IPO, of which not all WILL sell and not all CAN sell).

    b) The company and the underwriters will defend their secondary at $82. Expect either an upgrade by analysts tomorrow or positive company press releases in the next day or two.

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Mar 19, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    I was short and covered because the stock seems to be holding well here. I was expecting $70 or below today and it's not looking like that's going to happen...

    Finally, note that there are institutions that liked FEYE at $82 a few weeks ago. They will most certainly like FEYE at $74 and are probably waiting for the FED statement today before buying volume here. They're also waiting to see the dust settle today -- and sure enough it's looking stable between $73-$74.

    I wouldn't' want to be short going into tomorrow because there is no telling what the company or analysts may do to support the stock.

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Mar 19, 2014 2:23 PM Flag

    Nice try Marg, but you sure DID miss the point on volume analysis... 5.5M shares now traded and there were only 14M in the IPO. How do you think IPO lockup selling will run "over the next several weeks??" That's nuts to say that with swagger. The markets have a way of humbling those who think they know everything...

    At the current rate, we'll have over 6M shares traded by the close today. Granted not all are IPO lockup selling, but one would bet at least 50%.

    You're also overlooking the fact that there are a lot of shorts (like I was) hoping for more downside. When they realize they're not getting the downside they expected, that'll be bigtime fuel to the upside.

    If you watch the tape, you would have seen at 1:59 pm, a block of 539,000 shares went through at $72.25, the low of the day. Bid at that time was around $73.30 and stayed there, and no other trades in the Time & Sales showed a print even below $73.

    What does that tell us?

    It tells us that the institutions in control of the stock had an institutional IPO lockup seller and they crossed the trade where they could find liquidity at that point in time, but they HELD THE BID above $73. That means they didn't want the stock to trade below $73. Smart money is accumulating today.

    You posted earlier today that you want to get long on FEYE. Good luck getting a lower entry, Noob, but you might realize you've been too chicken to wade in and the trade will get away from you... Dumb money is wringing their hands on the sidelines today, smart money is buying.

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Mar 19, 2014 11:46 PM Flag

    Yep, the market doesn't stay constant, so what held intraday is subject to change. I was correct for a few hours because FEYE rebounded from the block sell at $72.25 to well above $74, before some larger seller(s) entered the market toward the close). Dog eat dog world...

    As for IPO lockups that rally, you need look no farther than YELP's expiration. It rallied 20% because fear of the lockup expiry had put into place the seeds of a relief rally. You must not trade lockup expirations often. It's not as uncommon as you think.

    I still maintain that a relief rally is extremely likely here with FEYE. There is lots of short fuel to burn if the stock begins to rally.

PXD
203.31+3.00(+1.50%)Apr 17 4:04 PMEDT

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