We will never know the why for fidelitys actions. It could be benign or not they could be selling because they own ISIS for example or they decided to reduce smaller cap names or a hundred other reasons that have nothing to do with OXGI,s prospects. In does under score one glaring weakness with OXGI that is a complete lack of major buy side coverage.Small cap names can be pushed around there was a bunch of new names who showed up on the buy side . MDVN lost 30 percent of its value before it announced their results.
The filings are trickiling in and my suspicions of Fidelity being the seller have been confirmed. They have reduced holdings by almost 500K from Dec 31 to end of March. The uptick in shorting may just be someone front running fidelity or other reasons we will never know until its too late.Two days ago saw the largest non news related volume in 2 years, it may have been fidelity dumping or not again we will not find out until the end of the next quarter. This name is close to the Russell cut off hope mgmt is aware.
Scott has given nymerous presentations this year re upcoming catalysts for OGXI. Has any one here done any work at what point in the calender these events may be expected to occur. There is the year end target for the Synergy trial, but there are a lot of trials being conducted right now and I do not have a clear idea as to when results might reasonably be expected.
If MOS is in fact increasing with prostate trials does this potentially put the year end data release date in question. I understand the pressure an increasing MOS in control places on trial success. Will it push out final data dates?
Fidelity was the largest shareholder and has been the biggest seller according to filings. At the same time we have seen a significant uptick in the short position and a very large uptick in the open interest in puts. It is impossible to determine the rational for fidelity sales it could be benign or not. We have the Russell rebalance and lack of Asco participation and potential dilution as all reasons for potential bear strategies. I worry more about the Russell rebalance. I suspect OGXI is close to the edge for getting booted from the Russell.
Box car passing a futility test is under most circumstances a relatively low hurdle. Summer has speculated that the bar may have been set higher than normal thru a desire on on Tevas part to to kill the trial if success was not likely.. Regardless of Summers speculation you can now surmise that certain negative results are now extremely unlikely. You should, expect similar results if the hypothesis is correct. Phase 3 trials fail to meet their primary end point with greater frequency than just chance would project however.
Thanx Summer for your reply to my post. Your contributions and insight are greatly appreciated.
Anyone here planning on going to the AGM?
Summer it appears that mgmt has listened to your comments re keeping investors in the dark. It has been far too long since I cracked open a statistics text book however has not the probability of the success of the Synergy trial just increased with this tid bit of data. The interim etficay look has not been done , what does this say about the control arm longevity if any thing?
TNK NO bad news in this trial design IS good news .The trial will not be halted early for good results only for negative results.
tnk Please read something about futility analysis, 011 has passed the first interim look and the trial was not halted and the trial design indicated that the trial would only be halted for negative outcomes. There for the odds are considerably better than 50 50 for 011 reaching its goal. It appears that your argument is the tumors are not shrinking therefor the drug is not working. Reading subtle changes on Xrays is fraught with problems which is why the FDA asks for OS as the gold standard for P-3 trials. Aspirin has been taken by billions for 100 years and its method of operation has been poorly understood until very recently. More drugs fail P-3 trials than one would expect but not many fail that have well designed P-2 trials with robust results. Only GOD knows what the TRUE odds are but I am betting they are better than 50-50.
Fidelity was a biggish seller during the 2012 last quarter. Fidelity was the largest holder the short position was declining up until recently but jumped about 100k in the last 6 weeks and the number of bearish option bets also upticked in the same time frame. It is unlikely that the bearish bets could be based upon knowledge of failed trial results as the data was not available. Fidelity liquidation could be one reason for the weakness and the reason could be no more than the same concerns that have been stated here. As I have stated it does not take a lot of dough to move this stock around . I worry about the possibility of a Russel deletion in the interim. I added very recently for FD.
Howard while this was a well written report and it does outline the good things going on with OGXI it is a site that is publishing company promotion whole with no on the other hand analysis what so ever. Some one bought 1700 OCT 10 puts last week @ 90cents so at least one investor thinks that a run up is not likely. It will not take a lot of dough to move this thing one way or the other. Keep your eye on the Russell rebalancing as this can cause pretty large price swings and OXGI is a little closer to the cut off than they were. Hedgies have been known to short names close to the edge and then lean on the price to push them over and then cover on the annual rebalance it is a pretty profitable trade if u can pull it off.