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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

uggs8788 137 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 16, 2015 11:35 AM Member since: Feb 20, 2014
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  • Reply to

    Uber fined over 7million

    by fukarwechief Jul 16, 2015 8:05 AM
    uggs8788 uggs8788 Jul 16, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    big deal. This is equivalernt to a taxi driver getting a ticket for going through a light. Not a big deal at all. UBER earns that in revenue in a few hours.

    Z

  • uggs8788 by uggs8788 Jul 13, 2015 12:03 PM Flag

    60% minimum upside. Companie has excellent cash flow, new product coming out along with 2.0 brewing system for ALL k-cups. Bargai with increasing dividend going forward.

    Z

  • uggs8788 uggs8788 Jul 13, 2015 11:38 AM Flag

    youtube /watch?v=hFgAsUQXYAA

    z

  • Reply to

    short interest soars to 3.32M, 13.6%

    by dbtunr Jul 12, 2015 7:23 AM
    uggs8788 uggs8788 Jul 13, 2015 1:37 AM Flag

    yea, "the shorts are complete idiots". It doesn't matter if UBER gets occasional bad press....the reality is they ARE taking revenue conitnually away from taxi's or that would otherwise be taxi's.

    Bottom line, taxi drivers ARE working harder to make the same revenue they were doing a year ago and two years ago.

    UBER cars are prolific throught NYC. There is money in the streets but it is being dispersed among a larger pie of drivers many of whom are not driving yellows. My garage is sitting on half their cars every night these days. Could be the summer or it could be new reality. Either way, a 700,000 valuation is out of touch with the new reality for medallions. Drivers have other options. Passengers I speak to say they have used UBER and it wasn;t bad, same experience more often than not as a yellow cab. So again, why does the UBER driver need to use some garages medallion? They can now make their own hours more so than if they operated out of a garage.

    Z

  • Reply to

    if anyone started a new long position this week

    by tv107 Jul 10, 2015 10:23 AM
    uggs8788 uggs8788 Jul 10, 2015 11:44 AM Flag

    Target: 220/share based on continued growth and cash flow resulting from K-cup sales over the next 5-10 years along with adoption of KOLD system beating expectations.

    People will continue buying the k-cups(over 9b sold last year) and people who have a keurig will likely give the KOLD system a shot if they are soda drinkers as well.

    Market has sold off and thrown up a stock to the level of taking off all risk going into KOLDs introduction. One still gets a company for reasonable value just for the KEURIG system and the K-cups...and one is getting PAID to take a risk with the introduction fo the KOLD system.

    Z

  • Reply to

    Another head fake today

    by swordfishpro Jul 9, 2015 10:28 AM
    uggs8788 uggs8788 Jul 9, 2015 10:31 AM Flag

    so it takes a year to recover.....who cares....the point is this is a rock bottom price. 9B+ k-cups sold.

    Z

  • Reply to

    This is $40 at MAX, I repeat $40

    by listen_jockers Jul 8, 2015 1:44 PM
    uggs8788 uggs8788 Jul 8, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    with a 1.8B revolving credit facility along with minimal debt, free cash flow north of 300M along with new innovative products. Yea, not happening. Management bought back 675M of stock from lanazza.

    You are delirious. Easy double of this price over the next 4 years. 25% return YOY.

    Z

  • uggs8788 uggs8788 Jul 8, 2015 12:48 PM Flag

    For a workhorse who doesn;t care about having a life, "great deal", but for those who don;t want to lose flexibility, it is a horrible deal. I drive 6 days a week most weeks...but whenever I want to take off, I do it, be it a day or multiple weeks. A owner-operator takes a lot of risk in doing the same thing. His mrotgage is due whether he drivers or not, as a daily driver, I only pay and get paid whenever I drive.

    Z

  • uggs8788 uggs8788 Jul 8, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    At the end of the day, at 550,000 it is as cheap to won as it is to rent and that would make movement on the transactions. But as of right now, in the 700K level, it is MORE expensive to own than it is to rent with a lot of headaches, and with new competetion by UBER, there is less demand to own and more risk to one's business. Once the medallion becomes as cheap to wonas it is to rent, you will see more movement. But right now, with 10% down, one's mortgage will come out to 3700/month just for the medallion, another 500+ month for a car loan and insurance, and another 600/month for gas. A lot of overhead.

    Z

  • uggs8788 uggs8788 Jul 8, 2015 3:02 AM Flag

    I am not saying that a medallion is worth 0. Even with UBER out there, if one drives for them, one is forever giving away 30% or more of their revenue to UBER whereas the idea of owning a medallion is that one day, far in the future, one no longer has to do so and gets to keep everything.

    The question is what is a medallion worth when you now have 19,000 drivers who drive for UBER who in the past would have been interested in buying or partnering to purchase a medallion to build equity and eventually own all their profits, who can now make the same living as a taxi driver with a hood on his car?

    There is less demand and more supply and again, 60% of medallions are owned by fleet owners. The game doesn't change. That level will likely remain. At this new price range for medallions and lower, we will likely see more wealthy people come in and play the fleet owner game and keep the price at a reasonable level as a return can be made. Just a question of how much that return is today when 19,000 drivers have opted for another way of earning their living driving and it isn;t with a piece of metal on the hood of their car and their car ain't yellow.

    Z

  • Writing on the wall folks. It is going down. Take a look at NYC medallions for sale. Just type that into google and it will come up.

    Z

  • uggs8788 uggs8788 Jul 7, 2015 12:30 PM Flag

    Why does it make sense to charge a transfer fee to begin with? At this point, the TLC should be happy someone actually makes a market for these guys, instead of charging a 5% transfer fee now based on 550,000 which is still steep. But it is telling that they have lowered it to 550,000 as that seems a more current value price and more REASONABLE price to pay.

  • Reply to

    so today was the bottom til earnings report

    by tv107 Jul 7, 2015 12:14 PM
    uggs8788 uggs8788 Jul 7, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

    why not? It has been extremely sold off to the point that one is getting a product loved by consumers and is working on new technology. One is getting a great and GROWING company for half off from 1 year ago. Tremendous deal.

  • that the TLC transfer fee is no longer based on 850,000 but on a price of 550,000. The TLC had previously said that any transfer of medallions regardless of price below 850,000 would be charged a transfer fee based on 850,000. They have now reduced it 300,000 to 550,000, no matter the transaction price. At least according to another driver I spoke to at the garage today. What does that say?

    Z

  • uggs8788 uggs8788 Jul 7, 2015 10:54 AM Flag

    what are you talking about? I said $1,000/week after car expenses in the case this guy was overinflating his 1500 number AFTER expenses.

    So let me ask you michael simon who seems to believe $1,000/week isn't enough? Uh...brother, the average american income is either on par with that or BELOW that figure. This guy is able to use the car he is using for UBER for all his other driving needs.

    Bottom line, if you don;t believe UBER is effecting taxi revenue....go drive a cab for a day these days. Medallion is not worth remotely close to 700,000.

    Z

  • Reply to

    Is this some sort of joke?

    by fasbmaster Jul 6, 2015 3:29 PM
    uggs8788 uggs8788 Jul 7, 2015 1:47 AM Flag

    take a look at deckers stock from 2011-2012...went down about 81% in about 10 months. Story was lack of growth and increased costs in sheepskin.

    If you believe in a company, say coca cola and believe 10 years from now more people will be drinking coca cola, you buy coca cola if its stock has sold off.

    Keurig will still be here in 10 years from now. 9B+ k-cups sold will be a big joke then as it will likely be over 20B sold by then as international growth continues. People love coffee and this company allows people to brew their favorite coffee in 2 minutes.

    Z

  • Reply to

    3 NYC transfers in June

    by dbtunr Jul 6, 2015 1:09 PM
    uggs8788 uggs8788 Jul 6, 2015 1:55 PM Flag

    how do 3 transfers squash a shorts case when there 13,666 medallions out there and more in foreclosure than JUST 3. HOW?

    Ever see a stock trade higher one day and then a month later stock is worth 25% less? Why is this any different? The trend is DOWN. Just because someone or 3 people buy a medallion at this overpriced rate in the 700's doesn;t mean 3 months from now the "market" says they are worth that much.

    Plenty of people make bad decisions like people who bought medallions over a million the last 3 years.

    Z

  • No...buy with both hands. 9B+ k-ecups sold last year.

    Z

  • uggs8788 uggs8788 Jul 4, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    his sign said UBER. I have no idea whether he was UBERx or UBER. Cars driving around the city for UBER just have an UBER sign. no distinction.

    Z

  • Guys on this board who don't CURRENTLY drive taxi's have no idea how UBER has made a difference. I stopped a driver today for UBER, asked him how much he was pulling in a week. He said 1500. I asked "your pocket, meaning profit". He said yes. Now lets say he is lying and he is making 1000/week.

    This is still another way for someone to make a good living driving in NYC without a medallion on his car with even more flexible hours than the taxi business and with one's own reliable car day in and day out, along with this UBER drivers words "its safer".

    Tell me how a piece of overinflated metal is worth 700,000 without taxi fleet owners owning 58% of medallions? If individual drivers were given the right to buy one, what would the real value be without big money not driving coming in? Its a moot point anyways because an UBER driver doesn;t need the overpriced metal on the hood of his car to go out and make a similar living.

    So people paying off a 700,000+ loan are likely never to get that money back when they try to sell it...who is going to buy it? Me?? I can driver for UBER and make the same money as driving a cab. Learn this business people. This stock is dog$$$$.

    Z

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