say what you will about him, but he was short from $8 down to $1.5, or so he said. So he covered, made a bundle, and said good bye. Good for him. can't say I ever enjoyed much his hateful spite filled, insecure, vitriolic rehetoric. But when he just stuck to analyzing/predicting stock movement, he did OK.
Obviously a lot of speculation about whether Genentech/Roche will buy EXEL and when. I have no idea but I'll throw out these comments for debate:
1. I can't believe that G/R would let their little partner die on the vine. But as long as EXEL limps along, they get the milk without buying the cow.
2. If they enter into talks now, the value of EXEL is the cash, less debt, plus value of Cobi sales, thyroid Cabo, etc. There is also the 'potential' value of Cabo Meteor and Celestial. Exel will want $X for that, but its really unknown, and I don't see G/R buying on the come for those.
3. If Meteor crashes, then G/R can buy EXEL for pennies on the $.
4. If Meteor launches, and G/R was still inclined to buy EXEL, though they would pay more, at least they are buying a known quantity, no risk.
5. If G/R, however, had insight, felt strongly, 'knew' more about Meteor, and they were convinced it will succeed, only then would they step in now, otherwise, why pay the premium for something that is still very speculative (some would say at best speculative).
6. So is this a reasonable case to conclude that G/R, if inclined to buy EXEL, will wait first to see the Meteor results? What do you think?
Thanks again for the great posts. It would appear you are not of the opinion that the Cabo PFS results do not portend a good outcome with Cabo RCC, in fact based on this statement, you may be saying the opposite. "Looking at Gefitinib (progenitor to Cabo) does not shine a good light on Cabo for RCC". Can I ask you for the layman I am, to explain this (again?), why it does not shine a good light? Thanks.
Thanks for the response. I'll try to answer your questions, but from the outset, I am certainly not qualified in the science of all this. I was simply trying to get educated from the many here who are (or seem to be), some of which hold different opinions but no matter what opinion, are more educated than me. So based on the responses to my original question, I summarized them, (mostly from Duckduffer) and offered for pier review my understanding, and yes a few conclusions of which again, was hoping for the more educated to comment. Again. i want to be educated, not berated by the mindless (not you btw). So here goes..
"Are you saying that because the PFS was "good" in comet, the PFS should be good in RCC?" I was asking if my conclusion holds any merit at all. I said, 'one might logically conclude' that there is a good probability. (read my point 6 above). Would love to hear the counter argument.
"It's not built for renal. .... I'd like to know exactly what MM said instead of through a filter of a third party". If I understand correctly, that is what MM said, or words to that effect...apparently. So yes, It was through a 3rd party, and I'd love to confirm that either way. That would be asignificant little gem of info to know if true. Of course believing MM for some here would be a different animal altogether.
"I agree that the MOA for the RCC is geared for success" Its certainly a lower bar to hurdle, I think we agree.
"...but that does not guarantee success based on other issues." I don't believe I said guarantee anything only asked if ' one might logically conclude, that there is a very good probability (I didn't say high) that Meteor will meet its end point of 50% PFS improvement".
Love to hear your opinion...Thanks!
If anyone followed the narratives that came from my question asking about the insights one may draw from the success of Cabo in MTC and its failure with CRPC Comet-1 when trying determine its outcome in Meteor (renal), there was some great answers, Thank you for a lucid discussion absent the rancor. But I thought I'd post a new thread here based on dialogue going back in forth with Duckduffer as I was afraid it may not be seen deep inside the threads. Great insights. So this is my summary. Duck, et.al., feel free to clarify.
Duck, thanks again..And thanks for those clarifications. Helped a lot
WOW. This is news to me and would seem to be pretty significant, at least to the extent I have a different understanding now...which is:
1. Comet- 1 end point was NOT PFS, only an exploratory endpoint
2. Comet -1 showed a statistically significant improvement over the comparison arm (100% or doubled from 2.8 to 5.5 month). You said 50%, but 50% would be 4.2 months, no?)
3. But PFS is not an approvable endpoint in mCRPC (why? because other drugs already do that today?)
4. Meteor end point is 50% improvement of PFS
5. If we got the same results from Comet-1 as in Meteor, it'd be a huge home run as in Comet-1 the PFS doubled 100% and the end point for Meteor is only 50% PFS improvement
6. And finally, if Cabo is 'built' for renal C (as you said, and MM has said), and based on the fact that Comet-1 already showed a 100% PFS improvement, one might logically conclude, that there is a very good probability (I didn't say high) that Meteor will meet its end point of 50% PFS improvement
Where is the fault in this logic? What am I missing?
You said, 'Meteor has a PFS topline. Cabozantinib had stat sig positive PFS in the Comet 1 trial' can you explain the difference between ' PFS topline and stat sig positive PFS'? I'm guessing that PFS topline is a lower bar, correct? If so, how is it determined where to set the bar? Why was Comet -1 stat sig positive PFS vs. PFS topline?
Correct me if I am wrong but CABO is 1 for 2, batting .500 so far. First successful with MTC, approved drug and selling. 1 for 1. Then fails with COMET-1, for CRPC. So 1 for 2. yes COMET-2 also failed but for most everyone here that was largely expected based on COMET- 1 failure, and basically part of the same study at least as far as I was concerned. So most reasonable people would say, 'OK, I'm with you, so far CABO is 1 for 2, batting .500'. So now METEOR and CELESTIAL coming up (renal and hepatocellular). It would appear that at least the investors at large are saying, "We think that the chances of CABO succeeding with renal and hepat is not good based on CRPC outcome". No one seems to be betting on a positive outcome based on the positive MTC outcome. So my question for the clinical side of this message board is why? Is renal and hepat similar in, whatever metric used, to CRPC (or more similar) than MTC? Does the CRPC failure provide a better insight to the renal/hepat chances of success than the MTC success? I'm guessing yes, based solely on the PPS action, but maybe someone can educate me, what the science says here.. Thanks
LOL indeed..So you guys seriously would see no value in a positive Phase III announcement? C'mon you can't be serious. In fact you are saying that EXEL would lose half its value? If I didn't value your opinions, I would not have asked.
Keep in mind I'm not voting for you, I'm not buying anything from you, I'm not inviting you to Thanksgiving. So there should be no need to dance around it, hedge it, CYA, qualify it, I'm not sure why you people think my question was so nefarious, and why answering it would be equally as nefarious. 19 responses with everyones BS and no one answered the question.
Again, I'm looking for a single number
I'll ask it again. The stock is $1.76 today. If tomorrow the METEOR results were announced positively, where does the stock go to? Why is that so difficult? A number....I'll make it even easier. Where does it go to in day 1? 1? 2? 3? 4? 5? 6? 7? 8? 9? 10? Pick one. There are 10 numbers. Pick One
I'll open this up to everyone. But I am particularly interested in the short guys as they are the only ones that picked right so far. A NUMBER!!!!
Thank you, BUT.....i was, like, asking a yes or no question and you you turned into a politician at a debate (I said with tongue in cheek). I appreciate your commentary and will take it into consideration (why wouldn't I?). But in fact I'm asking for a number, and that's really all I was asking. Your prediction.
I'll ask it a different way....If the METEOR results came out tomorrow, and they were positive (assume very positive for the purpose of my question) what happens to the PPS? That's the question. It's a number. It's 2 now. Where does it go? A number...
Just the the the type of comment I was trying to avoid. I'm looking for some civil answers absent the rhetoric. that's all. Shouldn't be that hard
I'm sure you can list a litany of reasons why you are short the stock, from MM's incompetence, to perceived cash burn etc. I'm not asking you to list them here (not yet anyway). But like most early stage pharmaceuticals its seems that it's phase III results, more than anything else seem to drive PPS (large(r) price swings up or down). I think most would agree. We saw that when COMET -1 interim results disappointed, the PPS went from 6 to 4. Then when top-line results failed the PPS, went from 4 to now languishing below 2.
So my question has to do with METEOR and the top line results we are expecting in 5 months or so.
1. If METEOR top line results meet or exceed the primary endpoints, what happens to the PPS? Assume for the moment that leading up to the announcement the PPS is 2. NOTE: I'm not asking you about its chance of succeeding, only what happens to PPS if it does (yes its a hypothetical question). In fact so you don't take into consideration anything else that could happen between now and then (greater cash burn than anticipated, poorer than anticipated revenues, etc.), assume that these positive top-line results come out tomorrow. what happens to the PPS?
2. What chances do you give that METEOR will succeed?
3. What are the top two (2) reasons you are short (or for those who are not short but otherwise are very negative on EXEL). Short answer please, i.e., incompetent management?, debt load?, cash burn?, lack of hand driers in rest rooms/, whatever..
Finally, please understand the spirit of the intent of the question. You guys afterall have been right so far. I value your opinion. So if you can't answer without attacking those who may be long, don't bother. I'm interested in you BUSINESS opinion only. thanks!
There is an on-going trial sponsored by the U of Michigan entitled "Trial of Cabozantinib (XL184) in Castrate-Resistant Prostate Cancer Metastatic to Bone". Its estimated completion date is November 2014. Its Primary outcome measures:
1. Efficacy of cabozantinib in patients with castrate-resistant prostate cancer metastatic to bone.
2. Efficacy will be measured by the proportion of participants who remain progression-free at 12 weeks after initiation of the study.
Its secondary outcomes measure Toxicity, effects on bone lesions, PFS, and a few more.
Correct me if I am wrong, but this sounds a lot like COMET -3. What am I missing? Is this studying primarily effect on bone metastasis? I don't hear much about this study, but it would appear with a completion date of November that results would be out in a few weeks, months?
Also, the website has little or no info about Comet-2 other than to say they continue to follow those enrolled and that's it. This is the only mention I see:
"We are also continuing to follow patients enrolled in COMET-2, our phase 3 trial of cabozantinib in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC), and we anticipate data from that study before the end of 2014."
During the summer I went to the website (and posted about it) that they had an entire page of all the ongoing trials, different phases, etc, perhaps a dozen or more. Now it appears to basically only mention Meteor and Celetisal, and not much else. The website much different.
At 6:36AM DNDN files for bankruptcy. Only 30 minutes earlier ZACKS posted the following. What a scam these guys are. Does anyone really trade based on these idiots guidance? This is not the entire report but some comical tidbits along with a hilarious conclusion.
Investors are always looking for stocks that are poised to beat at earnings season and Dendreon Corp. (DNDN) may be one such company.
That is because DNDN is seeing favorable earnings estimate revision activity as of late, which is generally a precursor to an earnings beat. ....
Why is this Important?
A positive reading for the Zacks Earnings ESP has proven to be very powerful in producing both positive surprises, and outperforming the market. Our recent 10 year backtest shows that stocks that have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better show a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and have returned over 28% on average in annual returns (see more Top Earnings ESP stocks here).
Given that DNDN has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and an ESP in positive territory, investors might want to consider this stock ahead of earnings. Clearly, recent earnings estimate revisions suggest that good things are ahead for Dendreon, and that a beat might be in the cards for the upcoming report.
yes its true and a useful feature when you'd like to tune out the rude, the obnoxious, the nasty, and all those with unfounded arrogance, and especially those cowards who hide behind the anonymity of the internet including these message boards. So just put them on ignore. I use it extensively. Its gotten so bad here that I only see my posts..And I'm considering ignoring myself as I'm sure so many others have. But seriously, using this feature can make for a more civil board. Truth be told, these boards (no matter what stock), are is a Long vs. Short battle and far far too often no one can make a statement without making it personal, or without virulent hate filled nonsense. A very sad commentary. Can't say honestly i haven't been sucked into it myself. Its an abyss of worthless sewage at the end of the day. A shame because many of those who partake have valid commentary but its tough to hear the message when all you hear is the messenger. I'm sure this message will have its share of rude commentary as well. But just ignore. it's a beautiful thing..
Seeking clarification.. I'm not sure what your conclusion is here. In you opinion, is the scenario you described good or bad for the long investor? Are you saying that if this large short position was looking to cover, they would find difficulty finding a seller at these prices? i'm wondering for whom is this a conundrum..