less than 20 days ago you said, "I really expect a JV announcement in 2015 and I am building my investment strategy around that assumption".. What changed?
That somewhat differs from what Ernie has previously said (see Nov 6 posts). At the time I was saying no JV announcement until full approval, and Ernie emphatically shot that down pointing out that any partnership needs to hit the ground running and it was his opinion it could (likely?) happen before 2015 year end. He also cited several examples of JVs and BOs occurring before an impending approval of a particular drug You said 'we won't see a hint of outside support till revenue is queued up.' But don't you have to believe they already know/analyzed that (revenue estimates)? I think Ernie's point was, they (EXEL and its partner) can't wait that long...
Wildman: If you were to handicap the chances of a JV announcement within the remainder of 2015, where does you betting line stand? 80/20? 60/40? 50/50? less? I may as well throw that out to other more erudite posters than me as well..
Throwing this question out to all, what is your opinion? Is the COBI market in the US closer to 50% of $790M, 50% of $300M or something else? The $790M number was the highest I have read, or recall anyway..
From a Motley Fool contributor Todd Campbell of TM Capital dated November 14th, basically, throwing damp water on EXEL, not killing it, but negative overall, citing increased competition in EXEL's two approved/soon to be approved indications, financials, and most of the recent news being baked in, "Overall, Exelixis recent run higher means its $1.3 billion market cap is at levels that already reflect the positive impact of both Cometriq and Cotellic and given that Exelixis has $371 million in long-term debt, I think a good argument can be made that this stock is a bit ahead of itself and that it may need to digest some of its big move higher." Todd Campbell just a few days earlier form this article, posted by MF, talked about why EXEL dropped a few days ago.
But on that same November 14, MF posted another article, this time written by a different contributor (Article Title, "Stocks that could Double in 2016",) said among other things, that, .."The cobi/Zelboraf combination has enormous potential to become the standard-of-care therapy for BRAF-mutated melanoma patients. At least one analyst has projected a possible $790 million revenue opportunity just in the U.S., where Exelixis has a 50% profit share. "
50% of $790M is about $400M in US alone. The estimates I have recently seen here, have estimated as low as $150M, and it seemed to me that that was in part corroborated by the numbers Roche itself had indicated in one of their slides. I'd love to believe the former but I'm skeptical..
now Debbie.....:) JV announcement coming tomorrow, followed by BO next week at $20/share. You just need to be a little patient, and be a bit more positive..
Something not lining up...Announcement comes from FDA and EXEL/Roche seem off guard. Stock trading halted. Then EXEL press release comes out and 9 out of 10 here could have largely written it, very litle we didn't know, with exception to the little tidbit regarding V/C and D/B OS comparison..So it would seem to me some were expecting more news.. The 'more' news not forthcoming, but PPS doesn't tank, goes up a few % points. Perhaps, the 'early' announcement by the FDA did catch them off guard and EXEL 'forced' to at least acknowledge it with a PR. But maybe, as I take another sip of kool aide, the plan was to announce the approval along with something bigger, JV, BO what ever, bigger investment, etc. And so this bigger announcement comes after market closes, which was the plan the entire time.. That was a big drink! What do you think?
I don't know Ernie... After all this, it would seem as Buffalo Springfield said, "Everybody's right, yet everybody's wrong". So the selling before the news is unwarranted, news announced, trading halted, opens up and market doesn't sell the news but yet stock only up 2.5% on that good news.. Also reminds me of a Seinfeld episode when George touts his new mentee who is a solid "C" student.."not getting ahead, but not falling behind"..
Homeslice is right. Fear. Selling BEFORE the news instead of on the news based on the bio market tanking at the moment. If you have confidence, and believe all the upside arguments, good time/ great time to wade deeper in the pool.
Geez is right. All these things people throw at you and you are upset about being called a Debbie Downer? I can list them here but I'd run out of the 2,000 character limit! :) I know what your technicals tell you and respect that. But technicals can be surprised by the unforeseen as you know. See Citrons neutron bomb dropped on Valeant or he impact of the d bag Schrelli on all bios. Point is, the news the next 2 days has the real chance, in my opinion anyway of surprising to the upside. it will likley be more than, "hey Cobi finally approved in the US and we made some money" As Geico says, "everybody knows that". But what may move the bar is more details of the marketing activities in place, more results of the trials, more partner news, update on Meteor activities, maybe the other trials. I think there may be a real possibility of the upside surprise, not because I drink the kool aid as you like to point out, but because it seems to be setting up that way. But, then again this EXEL . Good luck Homer!
due by November 11th. Don't be such a Debbie downer. I think you may be on the wrong side of this trade again. Maybe in the short term any way. Not hedging long at all?
meant to be a compliment for anyone who cares..and a congratulatory note on his 35% gain on his LXRX ; 'Good to be you' .... That's why I keep harping that the potential JV for Cabo will be a potentially more important share price catalyst than Cobi"....
He had mentioned he has core and trading shares like others here have mentioned. So he buys in this AM at $6.03, remarkably close to the low of the day and sells about an hour later for I'm guessing between 6.10 and 6.20. Lets say 6.15 for sake of discussion. That's a quick $0.12/share in one hour. Not sure how you can fault a guy for doing exactly what he said he would do, executes on his strategy, and makes a profit along the way. That's what traders aspire to do. We'd all be heros if we could trade on stock prices now from an hour prior.
Hurtful Ernie, vert hurtful...Funny, but very hurtful :) I get it...you are a smart and a funny man. Did you see my latest last reply? (just seeing this now).
"One of the things you are missing is that Cabo .." That's the point entirely! LOL. This entire dialogue was predicated on me thinking the JV we all were discussing was tied to the pending COBI approval not CABO. How F******stupid am I? Talk about embarrasing. I'm stupid, bit not that stupid. Then again, this is a walking example of empirical data of stupidity, so I can't argue that either! Sigh.....