You guys seem to go at it hard, then a thaw comes and I think , hey maybe these guys will stop riding each other. I haven't been on the boards much lately so don't know what's going on. How did 'he' get your email?
How you been? Not sure of the motivation, or intent of this post, but some perspective then you can tell me. I believe this article was published not by Motley Fool, but by Sirius Capital(?). Not sure if it was Sirius or some other hedgefund, but almost certain it wasn't Motley Fool. Secondly, this was published just a few weeks, if not days before the Meteor results were announced. And you omitted (purposely?) the key conclusion they arrived at, something to the effect that ' for all these reasons we believe that the Meteor Trial will not meet its endpoint'. So if you (sirius) go through all these gyrations to define voo doo medicine, trash EXEL, trash the trials, and conclude that the pending trial which arguably was the most significant of EXEL to date, will fail, only for it to not only meet its endpoints but by large margins, and be granted break through status, then what does that say about their analysis? Using this article to make your point is akin to Carl Rove pontificating how Romney will win the election after Obama already won. So I guess its a long way of saying, I don't get your point. Hey Licky has a real hardon for you, and I mean that in the literal sense. Keep your pants on..
A whole lot of GREAT analysis again provided by this board. So very impressive. I have been trying to do my best to sort it all out.. Assuming that the BIOs don't tank enmase again Monday and beyond, Mr. Market will ultimately open the envelope and announce the winner. Still, whether 2nd or 3rd line, or even shared with Opdivo, there's still a lot going for EXEL. Its not like this was a COMET fiasco, where the result there was we still had no product/drug. There is still COBI approval coming, Celestial, and a likely JV, maybe a BO. Frankly, all this talk about HC and lowering prescription costs, likely creates more of a sense of urgency for JVs and acquisitions as the acquirers and JVers scramble for a piece of a pie that may be shrinking. Its better, not worse for EXEL if that is what you were hoping for...
Are you announcing you are a moron? Or calling Ernie a moron? Why would you call Ernie a moron? Or calling home slice a moron for advocating taking some profit which is what 99.99% of any financial analyst, advisor, expert, kindergartener would say is prudent and smart? And btw Ernie by his post is apparently doing himself. So just curious who are you calling a moron?
Big Volume, big gain, on a big down day for market, down day for BIOs, on a Friday...No one ever seems to want to hold that big gain over the weekend, yet here it is, and AH going strong to. Especially considering the market sold off and BIOs/Pharma largely down as well. All this uncertainty in the market where EXEL typically gets dragged along for the ride, EXEL doing anything but....Oddly odd indeed!
A while back you mentioned you had 'trading shares' of EXEL. Maybe I misunderstood but I thought you were saying you had a certain % of shares you reserved to trade and/or actively trade while holding a majority long. Was I right? I was curious to know what that % is. I have done very little trading of EXEL but certainly have a healthy # of shares that I could do the same.
Here's the link...
And this is one of his conclusions from his "Valuation Section".
"Based on these assumptions, the fair value for EXEL comes to $9.18 per share. This represents an upside of 65% from current levels."
I see a handful and I'm sure there are many more, of BIOs with valuations and market cap 4X EXEL, that aren't even out of phase 1 or 2 yet, some with no product at all. I'm not equipped to make a detailed valuation estimate like this guy did, but base on all the analysis I see here, and other articles my first guess is this guy is way off.. Didn't I just see a similar analysis by Ernie the other day that had EXEL pegged at $12? I'd believe Ernie before this guy, but even at $12 I'd be very disappointed...I need to revisit that post.
Didn't see any comments from the board yet... Good article, hits all the salient points, them makes a stab at EXELs valuation. Backs it all up with his research and calculation. After you read the article, and before reading his valuation conclusion, you say, 'wow, what a company, what great potential, etc., etc.'. The valuation conclusion? $9.18. I've been looking for the home run. At $9.18 that's a run down between 1st and 2nd..
"As far as revenue and timeline, I think we can all agree that based on current revenue, EXEL is definitely over valued."
No question, but EXELs PPS and its 'value' is all (mostly) attributed to its pipeline and its near term prospects, specifically of pending approval of COBI and CABO in RCC and ongoing MTC revenue. I think very typical of a pharma of this size and pipeline. There is also the built in expectation of a JV which takes more risk out the equation and of course a potential BO. I have said several times in the past, that is my opinion, that there will be no BO until at least COBI is formally approved, and maybe even after CABO RCC submission accompanied with more data (coming). In any event, like I said, EXEL is all about potential at this point, and recent events have surely increased its 'potential value' and correspondingly lowered risk. I'm hoping any way...
If a buy out is in the cards, I have some doubts it would occur before a formal FDA approval for COBI or CABO for RCC. I'm sure there are many examples of acquisitions of companies before approval, but in EXEL's case they have only one revenue source, CABO for MTC, and its relatively small. So as much as EXEL has an impressive pipeline, and impressive results with CABO in METEOR, and COBI, nothing is approved yet (save for COBI in Switzerland). So I'm not sure any board would authorize an acquisition, until the bird is in hand, lest you pay a lot of money for company that has but one small revenue source. They may have a deal already negotiated pending approval, or maybe in active negotiation now, but I'd be surprised to see an acquisition without approvals. As an example, take a look at Valeants acquisition of Sprout Pharma (Lady viagra)...It was announced the day after Sprout won approval (and only after approval) and similar to EXEL Sprout had little or no other revenue source.
"The market fluctuates, and some of the volatility may be due to shorting and short covering, but know that the stock will in the long run be valued based on market perception of its intrinsic value." Exactly..All those short positions held by those convert holders, will definitely weigh on the PPS but not indefinitely.. So, those holding EXEL long will need to be a bit more patient in contrast to similar stock, in similar position, but without the converts. That's the short of it..