EXEL gets bashed here quite a bit but absent news, (and no earnings), it behaves in synch with a handful of other similar pharmas. ACRX, ARIA, AVEO, INFI, SNTA and EXEL were all down today. Collectively, they averaged down 3.17%. Pull EXEL out of this group (EXEL was down 2.4%) and these were down over 3.2%. So we got that going for us! Point is simply this. We ALL KNOW we have little earning to look forward too. We ALL KNOW (maybe you don't) that EXEL has 14 on-going clinical trials underway in varying stages (5 are in phase 3, 1 is in phase 4, 1 approved for marketing). We ALL KNOW that some top-line data on some of these is imminent. We ALL KNOW EXEL has enough cash to see most of these trials through to fruition. We ALL KNOW that the ONLY catalyst that will move this stock is news on the trials, PERIOD. So for all those who continue to hammer the stock now, my question is, by what criteria? Tell us what a POS this stock is once we get some results on the clinical trials. If the results are a disaster, then pound away. If the results are good and the stock goes nowhere, then pound away. But otherwise you can't be that stupid, or be that stupid to think that we are (with exception to that 5 year old with a load in his pants who wants someone to change his diaper).
I saw this comment after reading an article about Puma's meteoric rise the other day. AF apparently was not a PUMA fan..
"Sounds like and Adam Feuerstein story to me. Let's see, Puma, Mannkind and INO are all dogs. How's that working for you AF. Maybe you'll get one right soon and can brag about your expertise for another five years."
i am arguably the most ignorant when it comes to these matters so please excuse me if my question is just off the charts stupid. I pose this question to the more erudite posters...
OK, in COMET-1, the patients were a very sick population having been previously treated with Trivago and Expedia (whatever it was) with no improvement. I mean, not to sound crude, but the only population that could possibly be sicker were already dead.. Am I right? So Cabo fails in that the PFS was not significantly better than Prendisone. My question... Does that necessarily mean that if Cabo was used as the FIRST line of defense (much earlier in the diseases progression), that Cabo would be as ineffective?
What am I missing?
I've been long (large) a long time now... And I can't remember...ever... the PPS going north after we announce earnings. Please correct me if I'm wrong. And regarding today, I don't see anything different. All the royalties and partnership income is virtually gone. The only revenue will come from Thyroid cabo. It was never predicted to be large anyway, maybe pay for the subsidized cafeteria. Even so, if this small revenue surprised to the upside, how much could it be? It will have zero impact. If it surprises to the downside, it will have an impact as investors will see it as poor execution, or impacting cash flow, etc. IMO
And for anyone looking for some type of announcement on Comet I also believe they will be disappointed, and that disappointment will impact to the negative. The biggest item that will impact PPS, IMO, will be cash burn. Absent any news, a surprise to the downside (faster cash burn than estimated) will hit the PPS hard, IMO, as the next conversation that will dominate this board will be around raising more cash, another offering, dilution, etc.
And anyone looking to acquire us would also know this and that puts the leverage in their pocket, putting EXEL in a position of weakness. I hope I'm wrong. If I am not, I'm committed to let it play out anyway. I don't have the balls to start trading now to take advantage of this swing down, lest I get caught missing some news or whatever. i wish you all luck regardless. And hoping I'm wrong, big time..
You said: "I'll give you the condensed version. Lower than expected revenue,[REVENUE OF $6.6M EXCEEDS AVG ANALYSTS ESTIMATE OF $5.6M BY $1M] higher than expected costs, [R&D OF $51M ACTUALLY DECREASES COMPARED TO LAST QTR BY $3.8M FROM $54.8M] , cash burn exceeded estimates [CASH BURN BELOW ESTIMATES, WITH $352M CASH ON HAND, ENOUGH TO FUND FOR 2+ YEARS] . Dilution needed to raise capital to continue research. [DILUTION NOT COMING ANY TIME SOON] Stock tanks 50% from here.[REMAINS TO BE SEEN, BUT IF IT DOES, ITS NOT BECAUSE ANY OF YOUR PREDICTIONS CAME TRUE] . GOOD LUCK.. YOU SHORT? OR JUST #$%$ ON EXEL?
I jumped all over you earlier as your seeming reply to my post was way off base ( I thought you were drunk ) and you threw a shot at me along the way. What I realize now, was that at the time, for reasons maybe Yahoo could explain, there were several posts missing and your reply was to someone else, semanresu I believe, and not mine. Now i see the entire thread.. including those that did not appear earlier and there I am shooting my mouth off at you when you weren't talking to me in the first place. My very bad...and my apologies..
If nothing you are an enigma...On August 9th you posted this, "MilkMan, take it from someone who relentlessly bashed this stock right down to the lowest of lows, Its time to turn it around buddy. All the bad news is out and there is nothing but upside. This has turned the corner and the trend is your friend. Don't fight it. Hop on."
And now 2 weeks later you are predicting a collapse in the pps.. What changed? Do you strictly trade this stock or do you have any inclination to buy and hold at all? I ask because at times your posts are in fact inciteful, but if two weeks later you are back to bashing, it certainly calls into question the validity and sincerity of whatever incites you may have previously offered. So are you more inclined to short the stock, buy the stock or trade it?
You are posing this question to the 'intelligent people on this MB' which is a small number and certainly would exclude me.
my quick two cents, voiced earlier today, i don't believe the top-line results of Comet 1 will be announced today. I believe the stock price reflects the majority sentiment that when announced the results will either not be good or not compelling, certainly at a minimum it reflects the perceived risk of being long on the heels of the 'disappointing' decision of the interim analysis to continue vs. stop early.
I'm not sure how you conclude that if EXEL "does not communicate COMET 1 results tonight this would reassure you that they are not sitting on bad data" If they have to delay the announcement to 'clean and lock the database' ( I have no idea what that means, but OK), I'd assume they'd have to go thru this process regardless of the results good or bad. Or am I missing something?
In any event, The current price reflects the risk associated with owning this stock. I'd be shocked if a financial earnings announcement alone will move this upward (but would love it if it did). I can't imagine it will be too pretty, but no expects it to be. That's not why you own it. News on the results will move this, and that's what I'm waiting for...but I'm nervous like everyone else..
All this going back and forth with socialidiocies, trying to determine when final results will be posted is mind numbingly brutal. Why not simply call investor relations? Or send them a short e-mail asking for clarification? Do you expect Top Line data results for Comet 1 and 2 in 2014? Or just some type of update? Ask them to clarify or be more specific when they say 'expect 2014 data' or however they have expressed it in press releases or website or conference calls. is it top line data or some interim update or whatever? Someone be a hero and ask the source for all of us...PLEASE! Enabler?, Socialidiocies?, Wilderguide?, Wildbiftek? Username?, Metro? Stocklooking?, someone???
This from the Q2 Earnings Release:
r. Morrissey continued, “As we enter the second half of 2014, Exelixis is focused on delivering top-line results for three additional pivotal trials of cabozantinib: COMET-1 and COMET-2 ....
It would seem that the CEO of EXEL is telling the world that his company is "focused on delivering top-line results for three additional pivotal trials of cabozantinib: COMET-1 and COMET-2 ."
So, why all the debating????
my God, where does this statement come from? opele offers an incredibly benign opinion, absent any type of malfeasance what so ever and you, with your anonymous internet or beer muscles calls him trash? He should go to prison? Pretty harsh don't you think? I think an apology is in order.
I meant OS not PFS. So I'll ask the question again... So Cabo fails in that the OS was not significantly better than Prendisone. My question... Does that necessarily mean that if Cabo was used as the FIRST line of defense (much earlier in the diseases progression), that Cabo would be as ineffective?
Could you possibly be a bigger douche bag? I'll GUARANTEE I hold more shares than you and 90% of everyone else on this board. I challenge you to find ANY post of mine that would indicate I am a trader or anything but a very long time holder, who has more incentive for this to go up than most. And those here who are long who recognize me, and frankly those here who are short who also recognize me would validate that. You are a F********* idiot, plain and simple.
Duh....Amazing. One of the 14 on-going trials announces positive top-line results and stock jumps 12% in pre-market. Hey user et. al., what were you guys thinking? Who's gonna change that big load in your diaper now...especially when its about to get a whole lot bigger?
Clarification: When I said "And for anyone looking for some type of announcement on Comet I also believe they will be disappointed, and that disappointment will impact to the negative.." I was trying to say people will be disappointed on what I believe will be 'no news' announced regarding Comet. I believe (again hoping if not praying), that when results are announced they will be good. My opinion (guess) is that we won't hear about it today, and for those who were expecting news will be disappointed, and maybe that disappointment of 'no news yet' will negatively impact PPS. Hope that clears that up. Also, message to Milkman, probably an oversight on your part but 'm not Metro (don't know if that's good or bad..I'm just not that person), message to mruyog, you're still an idiot.
everyone so sensitive. I did my due diligence. i know the answer. As far as I was concerned if the company says results in 2014 directly in a press release and in a con call, what else do you need? I was only trying to end this dialogue once and for all by asking someone (preferably socilaidiocies) to call the company, ask them directly, and put it this dialogue to bed once and for all. Why don't I call? I really don't care I guess. Lighten up Homer..
Socialidiocies is anything but stupid unlike your silly name calling. He making reasonable assumptions based his interpretation. They may be wrong but I guess I'm saying why guess? call EXEL, pose the question directly..
What the f*** are you talking about? Is your comment a reply to my question, because your comment has nothing to do with it. The question was simply did anyone ask EXEL if they need more funding.. That's a yes or no question. You should also consider buying the book "Basic Sentence Structure and Grammar for Dummies", or maybe a few remedial courses on how to communicate a thought...."How many more clues do I need to figure these out?" Apparently you need a lot..