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Claude Resources, Inc. Message Board

ultraific3 717 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 12, 2014 4:38 PM Member since: Oct 7, 2013
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  • ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 12, 2014 4:38 PM Flag

    I told you it was the distribution-capture arb game being played.

    There are probably several more million shares still short as a result of this game since about 15% of the tMEDS didn't take the tender deal, and a portion of them were probably institutions (still). But the smarter money took the deal (with it's kicker), and exited stage left.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 12, 2014 4:32 PM Flag

    Do you work?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hiccup Effect

    by blakeeric619 Jul 11, 2014 5:55 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 12, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    It was not the interest that was associated with the tMED, that was attractive.

    It was the quarterly distribution, and it consisted largely of return of principal on a self-amortizing note embedded into the tMED, coupled with some minor interest.

    Whenever you can find a security (with a cashflow stream attached to it), that is fully convertible into common of the same issuer, you will find the dividend-capture arbitrage game being played by the fixed-income crowd, esp. the hedge funds, since the strategy creates a 'low net equity' position, which when measured against the cash-flow stream, yields an off-the-charts high ROI.

    Of course I was right about that that strategy being employed. The short interest leap off the charts beginning in June 2012 (within a month of tMED issuance). It wasn't rocket science to connect the dots, with that confirmation of the game being played.

    At closing, all the new common shares were (or will be) delivered against the box, and whatever extra shares are left over (Perron's kicker), will likely be liquidated by these distribution-capture arb guys. It's probably already past tense at this point.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    BMO raise Q2 EPS estimate to 0.10$

    by reg_got2 Jul 11, 2014 11:11 AM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 11, 2014 12:40 PM Flag

    Reggot:

    I was looking for FCX production/sales equivalent numbers last night, but realized they don't publish them in advance of their quarterly disclosures. Wanted to get a feel for how robust their moly sales were, to compare to TC's. FCX numbers, when they come, will provide a useful guide on pricing that TC realized for Q2.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    BMO raise Q2 EPS estimate to 0.10$

    by reg_got2 Jul 11, 2014 11:11 AM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 11, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    ....so the 'low price excuss' needs to be tossed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    BMO raise Q2 EPS estimate to 0.10$

    by reg_got2 Jul 11, 2014 11:11 AM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 11, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    Reggot:

    A dime is reasonable. That's about where I was landing.

    Everyone is expecting NO SALES OF TC MOLY next year. Those sales won't dry up as fast as analysts assume. You know that too.

    This is where TC will insert some messaging, I suspect, to buy more time on the ultimate c&m question.

    At some point, TC mgmt needs to formally disclose the EIS process in conference call, point that out as an obstacle to Phase 8 (and stripping of it, thereof). However, later this year, they'll have enough information at hand to know where they are at in the process (which is almost over anyway - since they meet with BLM every two weeks in the Chalis field office).

    This will be where they insert their plan to mitigate 'production gaps', which the analysts fear. Their under no obligation to genuflect to the BLM by maintaining the c&m issue in advance of formal release of EIS, etc. from the BLM.

    They just need to say we expect this 'permitting process' to be resolved early 2015, and then stripping will proceed, subject to completion of this process. Breaking down and articulating the exact stripping plans and costs by quarter would be useful, as well. The 2011 technical report had Phase 8 West (wall) activity economic at $10/lb. Prices are clearly above that, and likely will be by later this year, as well - so the 'low price excuss' needs to be tosses.

    I see this disclosure happening in Q3 CC in Nov.

    But at this point, the c&m charade is clearly holding us back.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 11, 2014 4:38 AM Flag

    And how.

    The dominos will start falling as they start laying out steps to produce at TC next year, in advance of bringing up decision on Phase 8 and stripping.

    The next domino to fall will be disclosure of pit tactics to scratch up more ore from Phase 7 (pretty easy really....just dig down another bench at the bottom of the pit. It's mining, not rocket science). Cleaning up all the raveling laying on the benches on the East Wall will add to stockpile as well.

    I suspect they'll be running the mill (with reasonable output) thru April 2015. And we still have several million lbs. of TC material in FG inventory, collecting dust in warehouse.

    All this will mean TC will be selling TC Mine-produced material next year....lots of it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Waiting another quarter for something good.

    by superlithe Jul 10, 2014 5:37 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 10, 2014 6:11 PM Flag

    Blah, blah, blah......

    Always blah, blah, blah with you....

    There is no issues w. gold recoveries. Grades in Q1 were higher than the feed in Q2. TC said all along gold recoveries would lag copper recoveries.

    Quit trying to manufacture bad news.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Waiting another quarter for something good.

    by superlithe Jul 10, 2014 5:37 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 10, 2014 6:08 PM Flag

    Yes, he briefly mentioned in last CC a week (or so) in June for maintenance, other.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 10, 2014 5:40 PM Flag

    The numbers are good enough for the beat. The important thing is the TC moly. 73% of the moly sold in Q2 came from TC. This will drive a solid earnings beat. That and they recognized stockpile milling at TC once Phase 7 mining stops, officially. First time they've mentioned this, expressly. So that's progress.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 10, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    That operation need a solid a@@ kicking, as do the staff.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 9, 2014 4:55 PM Flag

    Maybe we get some numbers today.....that would be nice.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Canaccord Upgrade

    by reg_got2 Jul 9, 2014 3:12 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 9, 2014 4:54 PM Flag

    Light:

    The primary addbacks for Q2 should be limited to forex (line item in income statement) less the associated tax expense/benefit associated with that forex.

    In the past, items like fixed asset or intangible impairments, tax impact of such impairments, P&L impact of stock purchase warrants have been included as adjustments to derive 'adjusted' income.

    The stock analysts coin-of-the-realm is 'adjusted' earnings, so this is communicated to the company by the investment community, generally.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Canaccord Upgrade

    by reg_got2 Jul 9, 2014 3:12 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 9, 2014 3:28 PM Flag

    Reggot:

    "Our new 2014E - 2016E adjusted EPS forecasts are US$0.12, US$0.18, and US$0.29"

    "We are forecasting a Q2/14 adjusted EPS of US$0.01 "

    Q2 YTD will almost equal their full year 2014 estimate.

    Their going to look dumb in a month, I'm afraid, as I suspect moly sales volumes were more robust than they are allowing for.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 9, 2014 2:00 AM Flag

    More on this topic of steel worker contract negotiations involving IG Metall - apparently this has been going on for most of June.........
    ==============================================================================

    IG-Metall warns of strikes in north Germany for 1-4 July

    16 Jun 2014
    Posted in: Germany, industrial relations

    German trade union IG-Metall is considering warning strikes, after it believes poor progress was made in the second-round of current pay negotiations. Action could hit steel workers across Bremen, Lower Saxony, and North Rhein-Westphalia, according to notices posted by the trade union’s NRW (North Rhein-Westphalia) branch.

    This could affect 75,000 workers, Kallanish understands. The union is demanding a 5% annual wage increase as of 1 June.

    IG-Metall says action will go ahead from 1-4 July, if the steel employers’ association fails to make a satisfactory wage offer in the third round of talks, which are due to take place on 30 June in Düsseldorf.

    =================================================================================
    Look like this potential problem (strike threat) for German steel makers had been brewing since at least June (now resolved). Seems to have sapped some demand for moly in the European market since early June. German industrial production was off in May as well (disclosed today), so that probably didn't help June steel activity in Europe's largest economy, either.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • LONDON Asian Metal 8 Jul 14 - The European ferromolybdenum 65%min market saw a surprising pickup in offering prices on Monday, following two weeks of sustained downward pressure and weak market sentiment. Following a period of brief stability on Friday where prices were seen steady between USD31.70-32.20kg Mo in warehouse Rotterdam, traders who spoke with Asian Metal on Monday revealed that offers had moved up by around USD0.40kg Mo and were hovering between USD32.10-32.60kg Mo in warehouse Rotterdam. Sources claimed that a near two week long period of short selling in the inter-trade market had now turned in on itself.
    =================================================================================
    MAYBE THINGS ARE STARTING TO TURN AROUND NOW THAT GERMAN UNIONS HAVE ACCEPTED A DEAL, AND STOPPED STRIKING AT SOME OF THE LARGEST STEELMAKERS OPERATIONS IN GERMANY. BUT I SUSPECT AUGUST WILL BE BETTER AS OTHER DISTRACTIONS ABOUND FOR THE EUROPEAN STEEL INDUSTRY, IN GENERAL.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Excerpts from Reuters article:

    German steel workers agree pay rise - union
    By Reuters | Economic Indicators | Jul 08, 2014 05:47 GMT

    GELSENKIRCHEN Germany (Reuters) - German trade union IG Metall has reached an agreement with steel companies to raise the pay of 75,000 workers in northwestern Germany by 4 percent in two steps, ending a dispute that had prompted strikes last week.

    Last week IG Metall called strikes at plants operated by steel companies including ThyssenKrupp, Salzgitter, ArcelorMittal and Finland's Outokumpu.
    =================================================================================

    Excerpts from an April 22,2014 Bloomberg article:

    German Workers Deserve a World Cup Break

    Kavitha A. Davidson
    Apr. 22, 2014 6:01 PM EDT
    By Kavitha A. Davidson

    German workers have their priorities straight.

    The Guardian reports that union bosses in Germany are calling on employers to shift working hours to accommodate World Cup matches. Accounting for the time difference between Germany and host country Brazil, group stage matches start as late as 9 p.m. Berlin time, while matches in the round of 16 would kick off after 10 p.m. should Germany advance that far. With many early shifts in industries such as mining and recycling beginning at 6 a.m., unions are asking for a later start to the work day following World Cup matches. German-language Bild newspaper notes that several employers have already agreed to the accommodations.

    =================================================================================

    Connect the dots. Summer slowdown in steel industry (usually for maintenance and seasonal flow of orders), German steel workers union threatening strikes, and soccer impacting business and productivity, I suspect this explains a little bit on why moly demand dropped sharply last four weeks (esp. in Eurozone), taking prices down a peg or two. Germany alone is Europe's biggest steel-producing country.

    This will come to pass, come fall.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 8, 2014 4:53 PM Flag

    By all means..........you (and you alone) should run for the hills !!!

    Sell now.....!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    FCX's gain is TC's loss?

    by seabrook7001 Jul 7, 2014 4:00 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 7, 2014 11:41 PM Flag

    "My theory is that the analysts are too busy/disinterested/sloppy to see..."

    Indeed.

    Most brokerage firms research on TC is very poor.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Looking at molybdenum charts.

    by superlithe Jul 7, 2014 6:15 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 7, 2014 7:25 PM Flag

    Excerpt from a Metal Page report on minor metals markets, dating from several weeks ago.....

    ======================================================================

    WEEK IN REVIEW: Summer time and the trade is not easy

    LONDON (Metal-Pages) 20-Jun-14. As the football fever heats up in Brazil, the markets are starting to cool down in Europe and the US, as the metals industry enters the quieter summer season. This week saw public holidays in parts of Europe, including Germany, Austria and Switzerland, disrupt the flow of weekly business. July will be soon upon us, and in the ferro-alloy markets in particular both last minute restocking by steel mills and stock liquidation by traders were in evidence this week on both sides of the Atlantic. Some of the downward movement, particularly in ferro-vanadium, took the market by surprise. Against this background there was a distinct lack of volatility in minor metal prices, where trading is thin.
    ======================================================================
    Note for Stupidlith: Steel industry is always busy in later Q1 & Q2, as construction steel is always in high demand. Construction steel accounts for anywhere from 30-45% of steel consumption (depends on region), and construction is normally slower in the northern hemisphere's winter months. As for European vacations, the effect on industrial output is well documented. A simple Google search might clear up this 'revelation' for you......Regarding the World Cup, the sport is quite popular in the world, and the event happens every four years. That commodity researchers are mentioning it as having a dampening influence on industrial activity (particularly in Europe) is quite reasonable, as the majority of working age adults the world over are glued to the TV's (largely found in bars) and are watching 'futbol' vs working....

    That you are unaware of seasonality in the steel market is not unexpected. You are unaware of specifics on many subjects that effect TC..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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