Uncle "Lost/Missed" another $30k on chicken; danmm dead chicken can really Fly!
Well, no guts no glory.
Uncle is unloading some American Solar today, Sick and Tired of playing "You lose, me win" game, they better work out a "win-win" plan similar to the EU's forcing the Chinese to sell above 75c/w.
Now Playing ....
Spot checking ASP in USA now between $75-80c/w, companies like TSL, JASO and JKS might have bigger sales to USA ahead of CVD ruling. The Chinese solar prices will remain volatile short-term, everything should be back to "normal" after August, believe it or not.
26.33% AD and 18.56% CVD, after adjustment is about 29.3%, period.
Still, the final will be LESS.
They couldn't charge Taiwan for subsidy, the stupid MA government does not support solar since electricity is almost government monopoly, by giving Taiwan high AD so they can't compete here. TSL ain't too agressive here, they ain't YGE or STP, so they get cheaper rate. Uncle believes TSL has push out large shipment ahead of CVD, and they will do provision only in Q3 since they must pay cash deposit at little over 10%. The key is how much they sold to China and at what price in Q2. TSL will beat shipment and revenue in Q2, not that it matters to the share price in short term...
//2015 will be like 2013//
Butt, 2014 won't be like 2012 for sure. Shanghai rooftop subsidy is out, commercial .25/kwh, private .40/kwh, on top of federal 0.42/kwh. China must speed up with the distributed solar ASAP, and the low ASP in Q2 will slowly recover.
This is not a recommendation to buy on the dip or "buy till you drop", all players should only buy for very long term slowly but surely. TUrn off you computers for a couple of days if one can't take pressure.
Still TSL got the lowest rate of 26.33%, SOL and JKS were treated as one company at 58.87%, very weirdly.
Immediate impact will be cash deposit of 10.74% for TSL, 55.49% for SOL and JKS.
Most got Preliminary rate of 42.33%, and 20.38% cash deposits.
It's 26.33% to 58.87% for China, and 27.59% to 44.18% for Taiwan this time.
Taiwan got into "trouble" selling cells to China? What sort of Anti-dumping is that?
2012 version of Anti-dumping was "31.14% to 249.96%" vs "26.33% to 58.87%" this time? How the hell did they come up with the numbers? TSL's AD final was 18.32% last time vs the 31.14% during Preliminary.
They're all nonsense numbers to discourage people from investing on Chinese Solars and forcing the Chinese to continuously lower their ASPs (and get hurt big). Don't mean sheet to Uncle, the conspiracy will bring the Final to probably the same as last round, main purpose is to force the Chinese from outsourcing to 3rd parties to avoid the "penalties". Bottom line, the Chinese will not have Price advantages over US and Other Solars, this is a disaster and conflict to our Energy Policy.
ps, Please listen, this is not a final at all, it's nothing but showing the World how stupid we are. EU at least waited till they got enough installation before they took action, let SEIA works out their Resolution, probably the EU model, later.
//The JKS I sold yesterday shot up today. And the SPWR I bought today at 37.83, //
Actually if you did them right at the close today, the net effect will probably be little better?
American love to eat, they also love IPOs.
Me no tell and won't feel guilty LOCOing for a day, shoot the danmm chicken at open and ask question later.
ps, Missing few pennies selling too early as usual, Ha!
from SEIA e-mail for members; they still expect the rulings Today.
There's a Webinar to be held on July 29 on "China & Taiwan: Commerce's Preliminary Antidumping Determination", so don't be surprised they made their announcement as you "Expect" after market is closed.
Please EXPECT more Good things in the Future, Uncle likes your fortune telling.
WTO has already given them good excuse to delay their rulings; good deal for them to take.
Even by upholding their unfair 2012 rulings is 100% sinful and shameful, it's total waste of our effort in promoting energy policy.
//I feel like I should just hop in Apple on a red day and wait for $102.//
Not Apple or Google, I've already had them for a while; I was talking about recent "gambling" (as Mikey called it) on "risky" and "Over Streched" (Like Auntie Yellen called it) FB, TWTR and more... Trading is different from investment, I didn't have balls to hold FB or TWTR too long, it's all about luck if I've made money on them 2-3 times.
Your talking about 2-3% profit depending on how you take it, I've done few times sadly when they were taken out by Stops, it ain't my intention otherwise I would've let them stopped out at 20% instead. Yeah, I was stubborn, always.
There's nothing wrong to be scared (or getting excited) as long as you get the reason right. It is true in my opinion that the solar prices are collapsing in recent month, and you've seen that they've built-in the solar stock prices, and I strongly believe that there'll be no winner on this stupid trade war. Don't know why we're doing all these just to hurt ourselves (as well). In the meanwhile, China has finally worked out some plans regionally to "promote" distributed (rooftop) installation with local subsidies on top of federals, it's just costly for the installers if they can't find proper funding. Not everyone owns their roof in China, you gotta figure that out yourself by going over there. SPWR will be fine, either they play "You Lose, We Win" or they simply "win" by themselves and the sick part is they also OEM to China, especially SUNE. Now you see why they're trying one way or the other to make the Chinese products more expensive here? Well, we don't try to make our imported fruit here more expensive, do we? Yeah, they don't come from China. This is so sick that I don't even bother to watch what's going on with my solar stalks nowadays, I just go add more fun trading more and more "American" stocks, the Bigger the Better...
Regardless how much they try to scare people with all the BIG penalties... Uncle must explain that all the punishments they're talking about are Preliminary, nothing will really happen till next year, other than the Commerce Department is forcing deposits (to Custom) based on Preliminary rates, they were not retroactive in the 2012 Final ruling (and TSL was one stupid company that actually DID Provision at the time on the deposit they made, screw them if they did it again).
Based on last round's Preliminaries on AD and CVD rates, TSL got 31.14 on AD Prelim, 4.73 on CVD Prelim, with total of 35.75 Prelim. The AD Final was actually 18.32, and CVD Final was 15.97, and there was adjustment of 10.54% to avoid double counting subsidy, so the real final was 23.75%. Uncle thinks they made all the noises this time mainly to punish the Chinese makers that used Non-Chinese (Taiwan in their mind) cells/panels to avoid tariffs. This is all to silly, they should've done all these through negotiation.
Don't know much about pricing in fears, butt neither the AD nor CVD is legal to me. If USA insists violating WTO rules, there's nothing Uncle can say. They should at least tell us that they're appealing to WTO to show some respect. In the meanwhile, Uncle appreciates that they don't take donw my biggest holding in AAPL today, and their continuous buying into Uncle biggest suctor Airliner is also quite helpful.
It is 100% Uncle's own decision to ride trough the Solar Storm, nobody is pointing gun at Uncle, will look forward to 2Head's $9.5 target once more morrow. Please only tell me something Uncle hasn't heard about, butt not the GAAP craps.
//Was hoping to take some profits in JKS in the next day or two and put that in JASO, but stupid JKS is stuck.//
Unfortunately, the market likes to do what the market likes to do, we don't know if they've priced in the CVD and AD yet, it's up to them what they want to play with. JKS and TSL did sell big to USA, TSL sold even much more in Q2 ahead of the ruling, so if you think about the 1GW you're talking about, you also will think how much shipment they'll guide down for Q3 (to USA).
Again, the expectation for Q2 is much lower than Q1, whatever it means. JASO is down for no good reason, other than the cell prices are coming down in Japan and China in Q2, especially the Taiwanese cells, Uncle does not know how to interpret all the numbers. Uncle concentrates on playing the Big Casino and leaves solars alone (aka "Bagged").
Ok, got rid of all the Bull 3Xs, now we can TAlk about the forex "situation".
3 things JASO does to the currencies, the Exchange Gain/Loss ain't big deal that depends on the movements of foreign currency vs yuan, it's the hedging strategies they use that will have bigger gain/loss on forward contracts and options. Uncle is not a CPA, son is; hedging is just a risk management, it's an offset to profits, it's good and bad depends how volatile the exchange market is, can't really comment much.
Uncle does not have much good luck hedging positions with Bull or Bear 3Xs, Uncle beats one direction these days and it works better for Uncle. Uncle used to buy lots of Bear 3Xs when Uncle loaded up with stalks for "protection", now Uncle buys Bulls when Uncle is full with stalks, and buys Bears when Uncle is low with stalks.
It's Big Casino play, you have choice betting or not, and Uncle makes choices.
ps, JASO is getting into distributed (roof) Solar business with the backing of the big banks, Uncle thinks it's good to be able to get financing nowadays when Others can't. It takes Money to Make money, you make much more if using Other People's Money.
In reality, all the new tariff won't go into effect till next year, and I think they don't have "case" over Anti-dumping. The real challenge is the declining ASP in June in China and Japan recently. TSL did ship a whole lot to USA this quarter, more than you and others think at pretty fair price. As far as forex goes, it's hard to comment since they constantly change their hedging, maybe I'll take a closer look after market? This is a rigged market and I'm busy playing their games, got many Bull 3Xs to dump quickly. Really hate to do these one-night stand day-in and day-out.