You're not just ahead of yourself; you're ahead of everybody!
They won't report till July, and Fish always adjust their estimates all the time till days ahead of report. Nobody gets excited that AAL beats the earnings estimates, they Always Beat and Most of the time the stock drops.
Just relax and allow it to run its own course.
As long as the market keeps going, Uncle won't mind waiting...
//don't know what share count the market will use in their thinking //
That's the Point.
Why even bother guessing the P/E when share count is unknown?
I'll guess the Pre-Tax Profit will fall around $4.5bn for the year, assuming the Jet Fuel avg $1.50 for the rest of the year, with current revenue projection. You can "Tax" it all you want and even Talk about it 24/7, but keep waiting for better future.
//s AAL a cash taxpayer now?
If it's not, that extra billion goes back to the buyback program, right?//
Nope, it ain't interesting to discuss the Cash/Non Cash Taxes since it IS what it IS till they use up the NOLS.
You can talk about the Pre-Tax income which was $4,615m last year and probably will be around $4,500m this year. Don't know where the extra billion is coming from, other than the Banks?
Yeah, you can add back Non Cash depreciation or simply talk about EBITDA which will be much higher, or you stick to the Operating Cash Flow which Uncle cares more. So, with somewhere around $5.5-5.6bn of OCF, it's not even enough to pay for $4.5bn of Capex and $1.2bn of non aircraft Capex; $2.4bn of debts will be refinanced when it's due. CS, JPM, BOA and alike will have to be nice to get the underwriting business; Parker will be good customer, when Debt is King and cASH becomes trASH.
That said, don't you underestimate Parker, he beats everyone else when he Bet on lower for longer Jet Fuel before and Won.
Honestly, Uncle even believes when Kirby thinks that AAL's debt is Modrate, it WAS, at the end of 4Q15, when you take into account their Cash on hand, the Net Debt was Only around $14bn, but it'll be $9bn more with current master plan Uncle has figured.
//No mention per June prasm being better, of course King Fish et al did not ask this most important question....//
Did you listen to the Webcast or you just guessed? Uncle is busy with sister visiting, she won't even let Uncle sit in front of Computer much. Why didn't King Fish ask all the questions he wants to? Was he afraid to be called Ignorant? It's their own hosted conference, this doesn't make a damnn sense at all. The last "Black Wednesday" was the following day after the conference, guess Fish can hold for a whole day before farting badly? Man, tell me why lots of people Shot without Questions earlier today? Yeah, maybe the market is Really Stupid as many have said here.
All we need is News, Rumors, nice Fish farting to move the stocks really good. It's so far so boring... Uncle has to get ready for lunch, be back in a couple of hours. You guys keep Smelling for the Big Fart from King Fish.
Hedge Funds have staged up buying AAL, with $1.5bn worth of holding as reported; that's on top of 430m shares held by the institutional. With Parker's continuously buying backs it does not leave much for the traders (long or short) to play with.
Maybe he will be Right once for short period of time?
Jet Fuel at current level without airfare increase is not quite acceptable.
All the dumb people in LA has been recruited by TSA, the advanced ticketing for winter time is still very cheap.
// Don't hold your breadth Uncle, cant trust Kirby??
It's not about trusting anybody but yourself when it comes to investment; you know the Dead Fish can't give accurate estimates if the companies won't give them realistic data to Model. Uncle got nothing from AAL's management when it comes to what the heck they're trying to do other than continuously buying back shares and hoping the future is Bright and the Future is just Right. If we go beyond the PRASM stuff which has more to do with the Revenue side; the Non-GAAP Pre-tax for 1Q15 was $1,243m, and $1,218m for 1Q16, that's $25m less, considering their Fuel cost was $607m less, the so-called "Record Earnings" does not sound sustainable when the fuel cost shoots Up. We probably won't see much yet in 2Q16 since the Fuel was $1.90 last year, but they better make sure the PRASM will be up in 2H since 3Q15 was $1.67/gal, 4Q15 was $1.50/gal which we're already there now.
That's more than what Platts forecast of 3.3m barrels of decline.
Man, it surely sounds like fun to be paid for guessing!
Most Oil Traders are bald, as well as lots of Financial Analysts; they scratch their Heads too much nowadays.
Yeah, it's Smart to simply shave their Heads so people can't tell how confused they are with this market.
Julie Yates will be more Right now than 4/22 when she said that; ALL was only down from $41 to $39 at the time. Uncle has been staying as low as possible knowing that Most people here are not like our big ole Teddy boy who can afford to margin a few millions all the way down, even at this moment Uncle believes there is zero catalyst for AAL to rally big time for people to miss the boat. We only need one extra day of waiting before we know how to Shoot First and Ask question Later if Kirby stands up and talks like a man with his master plan to make American Great Again, no empty farting, some numbers and goals to hit.
Man, they don't even have to be Right, just tell us what else they're trying to improve, how they're going to achieve the goals. Stop calling us Short-term Investors, Stop making all the Fish feel they're ignorant even they are. Oops, how humble Jamie was when he has to humbly ask questions in the conference call.
You're thinking about the 30-day weather report rather than Uncle's sentiment. Who knows what the 2016 EPS will be; mostly they tell you the June Weather is mostly Sunny in California?
For people who love to guess the EPS for the quarter, the PRASM probably won't be much worse than guided, Kirby will address this tomorrow. If they want to talk about costs/expenses due to recent fuel surge, we've known better that the Jet Fuel will be way above the "blended" $1.33/gal guided. A 10c/gal increase is equivalent to $112m extra expense, 15c/gal higher fuel will be $168m higher expense or 1.6% lower margin.
AAL has 2% range (14-16%) guidance on margin, so it's a question of where real margin falls in the range.
That said, nobody is talking about AAL not making enough profits, so we're back to the sticky PRASM sheet.
By the way, Uncle's sentiment is always Cautiously Optimistic, it's the management that continuously showed the uncertainties. Yes, I can tell everybody it will be very warm winter this year since I don't have to prove you a thing Right Now.
High Capex now, lower Capex later ($2Bn less); that's the Main theme of Parker's future; Uncle only says the obvious and the depreciation will be much higher, that's the stupid part of income statement.
Will be heading home tomorrow afternoon.
Met good Indians giving tour guide at Lower Antelope Canyon; took nice pictures.
Cellphone does not roam data, only voice, it really sucks in the Canyons.
Still saw lots complains as usual here, even all is understandable with what has happened to Airline stocks since last King Fish conference. People really don't like uncertainties, Parker has never indicated that he can make American Great again with lower revenue and higher fuel costs; if the future earnings are coming down, the only way to dress up the earnings per share is really depending on less shares, is that what's really Parker is trying to do really beats the sheet out of Uncle!
//Very likely IF revenues get back to and above 2014 levels...//
Yeah, you guys are either too slow or too fast (aka ahead of yourself).
The revenue will eventually go back above the 2014 levels; but it may go through transitional period when the costs go up and the revenue lags behind. Depending on your brokerage, the shares you tried your best to get at the "bottom" can be sold when they go up creating a situation called "Last in, First out". The shares you've bagged earlier may keep going for you to slowly de-risk yourself a little, before another round of "bottom" guessing and picking. The only thing that's for sure about Airline stocks, the Ex-fuel costs will always go Up, and this time may always be different than before.
//18.5B market cap. down from 40B...at 500m shares and 40B cap looking at pps of 80$//
The more you buy the higher the share price will be?
Well, spend another $3-4bn to buy it down to 400m shares so it goes to $100/share?
Go, Parker, Go!
ps, Sound like Bob has the Right "vision" that Parker keeps AAL's share price under $40 for as long as he wants before Parker takes it to $80?
//The Enterprise Value of DAL is about $6B greater than AAL today.//
What DAL? They just know how to Talk the Talk, OCF $8-9bn and Operating margin 17-19% they "wish"?
Don't Worry, be Happy. Think long-term, Longer-term; the Future is Bright, the Future is Right and Parker will make American Great again!
It's time to watch Korean Drama, and later Taiwanese President Inauguration.
Uncle will be back in town to catch the King Fish Conference.
//You won't be hiding from anyone at the Grand Canyon //
Enjoy Buying AAL, you even Beat Benjamin Jeffrey by 3 big cents.
You Win this round. Next time Uncle will recommend you to be the Director.
Oops! Late for lunch which is more important than anything else. See Ya!
ps, Uncle has been showing Big Sister from New York more oriental food here than New York, Taiwanese, Vietnamese, Thai, Japanese, Korean, and Philippines.
Mongo loves Balut the most, Uncle remembers.
//If this stock isn't worth $31.76 here, you might as well sell all your stocks and move to your mountain hideout.//
Don't know about Selling but surely will go mountain Hideout.
See ya at Grand Canyon this weekend...