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Apollo Education Group, Inc. Message Board

unclespeaking 1234 posts  |  Last Activity: 27 minutes ago Member since: Sep 10, 2013
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  • Total system capacity is expected to be up 2%-3% in 2015, driven by increased gauge inn aircraft deliveries, stage length, and seating changes. Expects to end 2015 with a flat aircraft count. Sees no changes in near future to capacity because it expects high fuel prices to return. Sees FY15 CASM up 3%, driven by cost of new labor contracts for flight attendants and pilots. It does expect substantial financial gains in 2015 due to low fuel prices. Sees FY15 consolidated fuel price of $1.73-$1.78 per gallon with fuel expense to improve by $5B. Sees Q1 pre-tax margin of 13%-15%. Expects to have large increase in cash flow in 2015, but still expects to be disciplined in capital allocation process. Sees FY15 aircraft CapEx $5.2B, as it takes advantage of low financing rates to fund a greater portion of aircraft deliveries. Sees FY15 non-aircraft CapEx $1B. The company feels good about demand environment and long-term trends, although there are some short-term headwinds where capacity is growing faster than demand in South America. Expects currency headwinds in all international regions due to the strengthening dollar. Expects Q1 PRASM to be down except in the Atlantic, where there will be modest growth. Comments taken from Q4 earnings conference call.

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Feb 24, 2015 10:46 AM Flag

    Airliners will really save huge on fuel, this is 100% true.
    Money is still money...

  • unclespeaking unclespeaking Dec 7, 2014 7:26 PM Flag

    Was waiting to do that 3 days before the year-end, just noticed it's bought out by big sucker.
    All these years, the company has spent so much money buying back own stocks, and giving employees so stock options to exercise. It does make sense to them to put it on sale before the options expired worthless, since the stock price has been kept so low for so long since nobody wants to invest on it any more.

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Dec 26, 2014 12:39 PM Flag

    I think it's pretty safe to say it without being thrown off the plane.

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Dec 8, 2014 7:10 PM Flag

    I meant to say Smart A*s, butt Uncle thinks it's totally waste of time to watch people fighting people on Internet.
    Uncle has enjoyed traveling for the entire year, kind of surprised Uncle can still Walk so much, especially all the stairs Uncle has to walk up and down in Japan. It's going to take a while before Uncle draws down all the free miles and hotel points, retirement is really a bless.
    Back to Airline stocks that most bean counters are interested, nothing will keep going Up or Down the same direction everyday for too long, and the stock prices will continue building in all the possible future earnings though not at once. Airline stocks, with or without the plunging of oil price are still DIRT cheap. As long as we don't get into recession or depression, people here will still travel. Not when dollar continues to climb to high against trading partners, we do want to see People coming to USA.
    Don't worry, be happy, take some time off and come back for even Bigger Surprises.

  • unclespeaking unclespeaking Jan 13, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    Uncle does not know exactly what the pilots do when the planes are on the Air. How many are they in the cockpit?
    Do they take turns sleeping and eating? Don't they just put the plane on Cruise Control wen there's no storm or bad stream whatever you call it? Yeah, Uncle agrees they all stay in the hotel, it's too tough to ask them stay on the Street, but why do they complain all the time? That's not even in their Job description.
    Uncle thinks about those flying the Fighter Jets, risking their lives, they don't get to join the Unions and they seldom complain. There's no fairness in life, you gotta enjoy what you do and have a reason or you go home and stay with your family.

  • Reply to

    It Was Just Three Months Ago...

    by toddawalker123 Jan 14, 2015 6:15 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jan 14, 2015 11:57 PM Flag

    You'll be very happy to pay the extra 3.8% tax, I guarantee it.
    It has been a wrong idea that people who think they own their properties Free and Clear, we're just the tenants of the Big government. Remember, Tenant and LandLord, relationship. the Property Tax is just different kind of Rent. People are not happy because they think they can take all the money to their graves, that's not true!

  • Whatever it takes to Pump the Zangnut day...
    Desperated to the extreme, can't just depend on Solar Gods alone.

  • Reply to

    It Was Just Three Months Ago...

    by toddawalker123 Jan 14, 2015 6:15 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jan 15, 2015 12:28 AM Flag

    //Why would anyone be happy paying a tax for another stupid govt program?//
    Because lots of people (are) WANTING and HOPING to Pay Big Taxes, but they're not making enough to even pay a dime of tax.

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Feb 18, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    API report will come out in less than 2 hours...
    People got lots of time left to think, while the volume stays calm...
    Airlines will draw renewed interest in the coming days... Uncle puts guessing to work!

  • Don't be cheap!
    IS there really a Solar God?
    Uncle's calling 1-800-AsksGod....

  • Human knows. That silly linking oil price with Airliner stock can't beat the human needing to add AAL before the end of the day whether they WANT it or not. Beside, Airliners gotta catch up with the market rally, it is in Uncle's "Me Too" Program.

  • Reply to

    Green today

    by chidragon38 Dec 2, 2014 9:03 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Dec 2, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    It's only because TODAY is Uncle's TUESDAY, ALL DAY!

  • Reply to

    crude oil down

    by a42unateinvestor Jan 9, 2015 2:09 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jan 9, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    //Crude oil at $47.96...if anyone wants to sell into that ...or short airlines into that....I might be wrong but I don't want THEM managing my portfolio//
    You're not just Wrong, you're Dead Wrong, that's only Uncle's opinion, it does not represent ANY Other people's.
    By the way, WHO's managing your Portfolio?
    Don't you trust the Strangers. "That's not a NO, that's a Hell No".

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Dec 10, 2014 4:01 PM Flag

    Uncle finally got rid of ALL January Options bought long long time ago and netted over 1/4m, they are way into the money. Uncle will use the money to "trade" more Airliners if the oil makes more Dead Cat boucings. Of course, trading is bad word, Uncle will "Rebalance" more often...
    ps, Uncle only sold a little of Airliner stocks today, it's also part of rebalancing plan...

  • Reply to

    Outstanding AAL Shares

    by fletchgg Jan 30, 2015 10:40 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jan 30, 2015 10:52 AM Flag

    //How often is Outstanding Shares updated?//
    Parker has been trying to show it to you when he reports the traffic. If you see two 8-Ks on the day he reports the traffic, normally it's on the 2nd on; if there's only one 8-K then it's at the end of it.
    $2b buys a whole lot of AAL, if he does more in the beginning assuming the price will keep going up, it's fair to think that the outstanding will fall to 700m or 695m end of 1Q. Uncle is just trying to be logical, this is not quite a Prediction of mine.

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Feb 12, 2015 12:47 AM Flag

    ALK +7.95%
    JBLU +4.41%
    LUV +2.79%
    UAL +0.34%
    DAL -8.56%
    AAL -11.26%
    WTI -6.89%
    12/31/2014 AAL $53.63 WTI $53.24
    02/11/2015 AAL $47.59 WTI $49.57

  • unclespeaking unclespeaking Jan 14, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    Saudi's only purpose is to make sure they can take out competitors, especially from USA.
    At current oil price, if it persists, lots of producers will go broke. Lots of companies have already started laying off people and cutting Capx, don't need the Math Rabbits to figure that out. $45 WTI price ain't mean $45 for everyone, with much lower API here in California, it's near $40 and that isn't economical at all to the producers here.
    The oil price is man-made, you say $45 is right it goes $45, it can be $50 or $55, there's no equation how much supply and demand equate to how much the oil is. Just watch how the front month oil is trading, if the premium is too low, there's no reason to keep current month, they just roll into next month. March and beyond have higher than normal premium, maybe they're staging for small comeback. Who knows!

  • Reply to

    Who wants to close above 10.73?

    by zangnut Feb 17, 2015 1:30 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Feb 18, 2015 10:56 AM Flag

    This is Uncle's Tuesday, Monday was President's day, as a matter of fact, it is Uncle's Birthday today.

  • unclespeaking unclespeaking Feb 11, 2015 3:39 PM Flag

    Don't care what RBC says, it was $18 to $15 then from $12 to $13, they seemed to keep forgetting what their target was? Stick to Deutsche's $15 or take CS's downgrade from $19 to $16 months back. At this moment, Uncle only wants it to go clear $10.65 and Go!
    Uncle still thinks TSL will do well this year, we just have to put this Q4 report behind us ASAP.
    TSl is trading at embarrassing low Double-Digit at this moment, this has to change, it is against Common Sense!

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