Don't be silly, nobody is obligated to babysit the stock marketb7/24, Uncle has sold/closed all call options before coming tomJapan 9'days ago, some too cheap at the time, now it seems that Uncle made good decision making lots of money by selling too early. 490 out of toal 500 options from Apr to January were dumped, only 10 Jan 50 left. Be back to Taipei morrow, dannmm tired walking up and down stairs.
Many temple visiting and lots of blessing coming to Uncle in the near future to go back in Airliners soon!!!
Lat trip was ebola, this trip was due to unknown disease?
AAL needs Uncle's tender lovely care...
AAL should be back to "normal" after earnings...
The Spot Tanker Rates have been increasing, even the Spot Freight rates are increasing, it's about time they start leasing up all the tankers and manipulating the crude oil up.
Earnings is nothing but the beating game, though beating does not necessarily guarantee the stock will go up, but failing to beat won't help the stock price for sure. AAL, based on 12.5% pre-taxed margin and PRSAM guidance and know ASM and Cargo, will probably make $1,217m for the quarterly, with 690m diluted shares (also assume they did buyback enough shares) will yield $1.76/share EPS, highly than the avg estimate so far.
//In the 8k, they said shares for EPS would be 717m for the 1st Q.//
That, Was 719m diluted, was based on stock award calculation, not counting share buyback. I'll bet they've bought back a whole bunch in 1Q; will it be as much as 29m shares ain't my business, I gave $1,217m pre-tax profit so the EPS is simply a math problem.If you use 719m shares, they'll miss.
Honestly, I'm more upbeat on the regional like JBLU and ALK for the 1st Q.
Withe China expects to add 17.8GW this year, up again from 15GW, vs 10.60GW last year, there gotta be much more Beef this year for Chinese Solar Players.
TSL is on the Right Track to success, Dead Fish Merrill doesn't know sheet!
Nobody knows the exact answer; Uncle stays calm with AAL till it reports, still very upbeat with JBLU. If there's anything to add Uncle will add more JBLU.
It's going to be beating game when it comes to the earnings, Uncle does not care much with P/E short-term.
The market is a casino, people keep rotating to whatever are Hot, Uncle is in Bull Market the 1st trading day since Uncle comes back to USA.
That'll be too EASY to beat.
Uncle demands the Dead Fish to revise it way Up!
Uncle wants Dead Fish to come and listen hard from Uncle.
//welcome back uncle. You didn't miss much//
I DID miss the TOP at $56.05 by sell 495 out of 500 options in April, May, August and Jan 15 "Cheap" when AAL was around $55, only realized that I saved myself a lot of money later. I was upfront with my worrying that AAL might not make the number for the quarter; I didn't sell a single share of AAL stock at all.
I will start accumulating options in the very near future; wait for AAL to announce earnings Date.
I also might sell Puts to open if AAL continues to decline, giving me better "effective" prices for refilling (forced). I know it's sometime hard for people to Understand exactly what I'm talking about, but it IS what it is with Options.
Come on, TSL chart looking so sheety before Today, with EMA(5) crossing down onw EMA(13), Uncle came back to give all the luck you can get, and you're complaining it's only up 3.89% today?
What's the nonsense about $12.30, it ain't mean a thing to break (or not).
You think with the solars are Up today, they must go down on Uncle's Tuesday?
Maybe they go Up more?
//looks like some type of planned sale maybe to pay taxes?//
Officers get Freebies and company withhold shares (dumped) to pay for taxes. The more shares they're awarded, they're added to the diluted shares calculation.
Don't know, but if they do they're crazy, AAL ain't AAPL, it's better they use the money to pay down debts. They probably will announce giving shares to old AMRQ holders, don't see new hearings other than 4/15 and 5/12, there's no reason whatsoever to hold up the money.
I'm neutual on AAL, still hold same reduced shares, only added some puts sold and calls bought today, along with only 5 Jan $50 calls leftover which was a screw up during vacation.
With crude future going to expire in a week (4/21), they want to make it sound like the reversal of crude oil is here to stay. Nobody is talking about $20, $30, $40 oil no more, they all "know" now it's the time to get on oil again. That's crazy. Well, we've known for a while there's no sane people on Wall Street, still have to find them places to store the oil though.
//Will be interesting to see what they post and the impact on the rest of the sector//
1) AAL is now looking at $1.69 EPS to beat, instead of $1.7x
2)DAL is expected to earn 44c this Q vs 33c same Q last year, the high estimate is 50c, low is 42c, compared to Uncle's 51c which is highest (my base is on 8.5% operating margin, the midpoint of 8-9%). Without taking into consideration of profit sharing expense it can be as high as 67c/share.
Yeah, they'll beat the 44c estimate by 7 cents. That's a 16% beat, good for earnings game.
ps, The income is calculated to be $560m.
pps, As far as "the impact" on the rest of the sector is concerned with the "beat", it's everyone's guess on the crazy market. Uncle is lean and mean on DAL with only 500 shares left after dumping tons of shares when it was over $49. Bought 150 calls and Sold 100 puts today on DAL today with little Cash.
That's a NO, looking at the lowered estimate of $1.69 EPS now, Uncle's number can even "meet" the estimate with no buyback shares.
!st part of earning game is to beat the estimate, now it appears the 2nd part of game, aka the guidance, will be the Big Play. Parker should talk more about smooth integration?
Sold all 150 calls on DAL and 100 calls on AAL, kept all the puts sold. Options generate good return (in percentage) in a day. DAL beats but not beating as much as I figured.
It's just a game.
The "truth" is Uncle looked at the 2008-2009 charts on energy sectors and notes taken at the time (Uncle's own diary) for months and played the whole thing accordingly, but it is really silly since it's differen time and different situation with our current surging production . Well, they want to play same old game regardless so Uncle plays with bigger caution.
Nice to be back home in time to play the earning season, the market has yet to pay for my next two expensive trips. Europe is big ripoff, avg $700/night on hotel, that's even with currency weakness.
By the way, DAL's earnings is so-so, but its "beating" gaives better hope for the airliners. We need more confidence. Uncle needs it. Ha!