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Apollo Education Group, Inc. Message Board

unclespeaking 501 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Sep 10, 2013
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  • Reply to

    cav gets to keep his shares

    by unclespeaking Feb 26, 2016 3:50 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Feb 29, 2016 10:46 AM Flag

    When it comes to drinking, it depends who I drink with, not the wine itself. People always present you with their best wines they got, nobody even talks about how much they are, they occasionally talk about year and history. I'm not a real wine people but I can really drink with lots of people. That said, I've been to Napa too many times, wife has pretty much Art collections; lots of her friends "wasted" big fortune on Arts which is another thing I've never figured out. Maybe when I'm up to their classes, that's probably in my next life. Ha!

  • Uncle sees that AAL's ev/EBITDA starts trading at premium to UAL and DAL; I know people love low P/E here, but deep value investors prefer something more neutral measurement, especially on capital intensive stocks.
    Only Parker can keep AAL down, but don't think Parker would say he doesn't know what he's doing.

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Feb 29, 2016 11:59 AM Flag

    Crude oil Storage contract (Loop Crude Oil Storage Futures) has been up 9 times since it started trading end of March last year to (equivalent) 90c/barrel in parabolic mode. Uncle's data shown that Midwest (PADD2), Gulf Coast (PADD3) and Cushing storage capacities are at all-time high, East Coast at 94.26% of all-time high, while West Coast is only at 61.31%. Don't know what sort of conspiracy the market can come up with, but normally when the storage is so tight it's supposed to put pressure on crude oil, guess at this moment when banks are under pressure they probably gave their own Fish warnings not to keep their trash talks going on oil?
    Man, beats the sheet out of me; they should've spin off their Fish Department long time ago, it's really conflict of interest sheeting business they're in.

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Feb 29, 2016 12:04 PM Flag

    The Crapvision kept talking about Super tomorrow and Never-Trump stuff.
    This is so crazy political sheet Uncle has ever seen since Uncle came to America, if they keep telling people not to vote for Trump and he got nominated against the Democrats, they'll simply surrender without a vote?
    How does it work?

  • Reply to

    Its Chinese solar reporting time!

    by zangnut Feb 29, 2016 10:10 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Feb 29, 2016 2:56 PM Flag

    Hard to figure out their hedging. One quarter they hedge against Euro, one quarter they hedge against USD$.
    2Q they made money because Euro Appreciated much against RMBS, 3Q they lost money for same reason.
    Who knows if they went back to hedge against the Euro on 3Q?
    Basically, the FX gain loss is (1) Pure Exchange Gain/loss, and Change in fair value of forward contracts added together.
    Then, there's the "Change in fair value of convertible and capped call" which they gain if JKS is up during the quarter.

  • Don't know why?

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Feb 29, 2016 3:30 PM Flag

    Uncle's at "Korean town" in Garbage Grove, CA, eating Korean Tofu and Short-Rib BBQ.
    Can't type more wit this little screen.

  • Reply to

    cav gets to keep his shares

    by unclespeaking Feb 26, 2016 3:50 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Feb 29, 2016 6:05 PM Flag

    //have to buy it from the winery...they will ship to you.//
    Buy? Not even when they Give them to me for Free. I just don't drink anything other than Japanese Sake.
    My wife will force me to drink on the cruise some red or white wines with her friends, but that's for "political" reasons? No Beer for me either; I have no idea why people like beer?

  • Reply to

    cav gets to keep his shares

    by unclespeaking Feb 26, 2016 3:50 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Mar 1, 2016 11:37 AM Flag

    //However, I just put another 1,000 contracts up for sale (August $47's) if you want those for $2.//
    You're very slow learner, Uncle made fortune in the 90s trading options, it's so addictive like my chatting on Yahoo board trying to tell people if making money for the purpose of making money that's the "thing" they have to learn and learn it hard. Playing options on Airlines ain't my interest at all, I do it on high-tech stocks, I only sold 1,800 long puts on Airlines and it only made me 35-40% so far, most of the tech stocks I've gained 70-85% on the puts sold, 200-300% on the calls I bought (not sold, stupid!). Well, whatever, AAL is getting close to $42.5 I think it should at least hit. I've tried to be super conservative with my short-term estimate, it went up 26.1% last October from $37.24 to $46.96, and we "bottomed" from $34.76 this round. I won't repeat, people gotta know how to interpret what I've been saying.

  • unclespeaking unclespeaking Mar 1, 2016 11:49 AM Flag

    They did a wonderful job on Foreign Exchange hedging just like what they did in 2Q, they can't control the "fair value of convertible" which that got too much of it for them to "protect" with little Capped Call options, when JKS stock WAS Up,

  • Reply to

    Fare increases

    by wgrsh Mar 1, 2016 11:46 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Mar 1, 2016 12:10 PM Flag

    //he article mentioned it was an average $22/ticket round trip. If true,.../
    If you believe what the Farecompare site tells you then it can be "true", in reality I think even 1/2 of that is good enough. Well, at least your post is one of the very few I like to read since most people only are interested in fighting other people here. You know what it means when it comes to single ticket fare increase? I also keyed in the total passengers each airline carried for 2015 and nobody came close to AAL; just think about it.

  • Reply to

    Any explanation for the change in sentiment?

    by iahphx Mar 1, 2016 11:46 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Mar 1, 2016 12:16 PM Flag

    //The worst markets are the ones that are hard to understand. //
    If you haven't figured out the market yet, chances is you'll Never figure it out.

  • Reply to

    cav gets to keep his shares

    by unclespeaking Feb 26, 2016 3:50 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Mar 1, 2016 12:35 PM Flag

    //I just sold most of the August $47's for $2 and have now sold calls on half my shares//
    It just doesn't matter what you did, you surely are good to be able to Sell at the Asking price. Who's your broker?

  • Reply to

    Fare increases

    by wgrsh Mar 1, 2016 11:46 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Mar 1, 2016 1:02 PM Flag

    //I believe the article talked about a $22 increase on a ticket in the $450 range ... 5% is big ... and so is half that amount. And thanks ... read yours too.//
    I think Airlines Passengers are counted one-way a piece, I'll stick to $5/piece and that's $1bn of extra revenue for AAL, that's a lot of money. Let's hear what Delta has to say tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    Only in America, right Uncle?

    by zangnut Mar 1, 2016 2:09 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Mar 1, 2016 2:28 PM Flag

    Maybe it has to do with their (JKS's) electricity income that Gordon doesn't like, personally I think the Western China curtailment is to blame more than just seasonal effects; but i was really true that Xinjang area was super cold this year.

  • Reply to

    May $45

    by unclespeaking Feb 25, 2016 11:18 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Mar 1, 2016 3:31 PM Flag

    //I already sold 3-18 40/41 calls, debating on selling 5-20 calls. don't know if I have patience to wait for 42.50 pps to sell, was targeting 42$ pps to sell them//
    Did you do it at $42 today or you wait for another day?

  • Reply to

    Only in America, right Uncle?

    by zangnut Mar 1, 2016 2:09 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Mar 1, 2016 5:41 PM Flag

    //doing a secondary or yieldco is a terrible way to make money//
    The worst thing the Chinese Solar got was their convertibles, I've said a million times but they always got fooled into issuing the stupid thing. JKS has $100m convertible due in months, that after they bought $22.5m back in 4Q on their $125m convertibles issued back in May 2011. You lose money on the convertibles when your stock is Up, man, what sort of unwanted Hedge is that?

  • unclespeaking unclespeaking Mar 1, 2016 5:52 PM Flag

    //"Crude inventories rose by 9.9 million barrels in the week to Feb. 26 to 517.1 million, compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 3.6 million barrels."//
    Uncle has stopped watching that useless API inventory report for weeks; the Street will look closer to the Oil Production from now on. It is amazing, if not shocking, America is still pumping left and right over 9m barrels a day. Standard Chartered still thinks oil can hit $10/barrels, beating everyone else's target by Wild margin.

  • Reply to

    technically good

    by jtgray24 Mar 1, 2016 5:29 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Mar 1, 2016 6:08 PM Flag

    AAL is still leading major Airlines' recovery this year, with only 1.23% deficit up-to-date, though Auto-pilot UAL has just turned green for the year today due to their Shock and Owe buyback program.
    People are not buying Airlines as hard today before Delta's report tomorrow.
    The market was Purely fueled by Short Covering Today; Uncle has already dumped 3/4 of Puts sold and Calls Bought so far. It's been a Great Year for traders!

  • Reply to

    DAL Reports Traffic

    by mechjr Mar 2, 2016 9:30 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Mar 2, 2016 11:05 AM Flag

    //hey increased system capacity by 6 percent. Competition with alaska on the west coast? //
    That's pretty good observation. It's same flat "Passenger" revenue; ALK has increased a lot on their capacity, AAL is also competing at LAX with them effectively.

APOL
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