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American Airlines Group Inc. Message Board

unclespeaking 649 posts  |  Last Activity: 41 minutes ago Member since: Sep 10, 2013
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  • Reply to

    shareholder meeting and investor conference

    by dca1186 May 28, 2015 2:27 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking 41 minutes ago Flag

    You still have a whole lot to learn. Your way of further compressing already compressed EPS just to show dumb investors that there's an EPS "growth" is totally meaningless, though it's part of the industry conspiracy, they still in fact makes the same amount of profit. Adding another $2.5bn of buyback will surely trigger credit watch since it's going sink their unrestricted Cash to way under $4bn required.
    You want number, Uncle gives you numbers, with $8,077m all chash left on the table as of Dec 2014, AAL has $6,499m unrestricted cash, ex money tied up in foreign countries. With estimated $6.5-$7bn Operating Cash flow, $6.36bn of capx, $2.2bn planned debt reduction, $500m purchsing aircrafts off lease, probably #300m minimum incremental Pension funding (much less than last year, since they've overpaid $171m), $1,850m on didivend and already planned buyback. They don't have much unrestricted left.
    You have to compare Apple and Apple when you say AAL is heavily undervalued, what about its peers? What's the goal of your investment, it is short-term or long-term, does your long-term mean Next Tuesday or what? Uncle is still hoping what they called Synergy, there gotta be some hope, there gota be something coming out of the full integration, and that makes a whole lot of people holding their shares.

  • Reply to

    Earnings estimates are falling of the cliff!

    by getintoh20 1 hour 51 minutes ago
    unclespeaking unclespeaking 1 hour 24 minutes ago Flag

    //At this rate they will barely break even in 2016//
    You think oil is going $200?

  • Reply to

    shareholder meeting and investor conference

    by dca1186 May 28, 2015 2:27 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking 17 hours ago Flag

    // I would love to hear an announcement of a 500 million shareholder buyback increase, while also hearing they are near exhausting the earlier buyback//
    Why would they do such a stupid thing since nobody is forcing them to do it? They simply have to meet their guidance, including the fuel cost estimate then all will be fine. If they really want to do something, just raise the danmm dividend.
    ps, Please spend a little time to look at AAL's Cash Need for the year to understand why they have to spend their money more carefully than others, this year is for growth, next year they'll work on reducing debts. It better be this way or no way.

  • unclespeaking unclespeaking 21 hours ago Flag

    It's very easy to turn Caps Lock off too!

  • Uncle only tells Facts; Oil rallied on "Baker, the Count", and Dead Fish downgrading stocks to Trade featuring Range Bounding.
    All traders took notes and seek for higher Base for "Range Bound".
    Investor sentiment got a Boost, awaiting Dead Fish to Upgrade the next round when dust settles after Traffic Reports, Parker is always the last to report and it scares no cats for at least one more week.
    ps, Uncle wasted almost 2 hours during lunch out, nobody seems to enjoy a bit today. It's hard to guess exactly what people want nowadays.

  • Sick and tired of being blamed of low sentiment #$%$ is that?), investors want to trade range, maybe a wider range that has been de-Based at wrong spot. It was 100% old school BS lecturing from the Dead Fish Society that companies should give up seats for better ticket price, SoutWest CEO said their planes are Full, you don't them to refund tickets and kick people off the planes to comply with their Capacity rule. It is also 100% insane to cutoff new routes just because that counts as adding capacity. So, the question is becoming simpler, what's the Right Range to trade? $42 and $46 before the cloud is clear? That's 10%, that'll certainly improve the sentiment and please the analysts. Uncle buys the new idea, Uncle is always easy going...

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking May 29, 2015 1:22 PM Flag

    Here comes Uncle's Free Report.
    People probably don't care about much detail... but, basically, oil rig count is down 13, gas up 3.
    Notable increase is Eagle Ford added 3m Granite Wash 1, Utica 1.
    By States Okalahoma up 2, Colorado 2, New Mexico 1.
    I think people only care about the Ups, they do.

  • unclespeaking unclespeaking May 29, 2015 1:13 PM Flag

    ///We aren't making a new drone camera, its just the future of energy//
    We're not? Gee, that thing is Hot potato, it's even barely legal to invade privacy. Now, you can't even leave your windows open when you go to bed at night.

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking May 29, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    1. Positive SUNRISE data
    2. The announcement of a licensing partner or immunotherapy partner programs
    3. Buyout interest from a growth-hungry Big Pharma or biotech blue-chip stock
    4. None of the Above.
    1-3 were the catalysts outlined by Investopedia on May 13, #4 is more like everyday thing.
    Which one? More Buyers than Sellers?

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking May 29, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    But Stevie Wonder sees more than all the Rotten Dead Fish.
    Airlines are really facing reasonable competition during this Hot summer season, everyone is trying to fill their seats, and that's the whole purpose of adding more seats, which is kind of moral hazard to Uncle but Uncle is no saint or hypocRat (Hypocrite), Uncle wants all investors to make more for their bucks.
    Uncle will continue calling the analysts Rotten Dead Fish, there's nothing wrong with Fish, Uncle is also some sort of fish, Uncle is Self.Fish!
    Don't back down, the end is getting near, Uncle will face the final curtain with all of you. Just make sure you have enough gun powder left when you're called upon.

  • unclespeaking unclespeaking May 29, 2015 12:21 PM Flag

    It IS Friday, ALL DAY!
    It is not only odd, it's almost insane that SUNE got support from all the Bulls and Bears like Gordon for missing their earnings with Mountain of debts, and Chinese Solar like TSL and JKS are constantly asked when and how they'll pay off their debts?
    TSL and JKS both beat the Top and bottom line of all measures in the quarter that was supposed to be the weakest one, TSL didn't even get any help from selling a single Project. With the Chinese government pushing the yearly installation target, and with the more than 5GW that's already installed so far, people still think 1 plus 1 equals to 1?
    Gordon has less vision than Stevie Wonder.

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking May 29, 2015 12:06 PM Flag

    That ain't leading indicator, it's more a lagging indicator.
    Uncle is a Contrarian, irrational exuberance and pessimism will not sustain.
    People must plug in own data points and use common sense on top of fundamental analysis.
    Ignore all the noises, stay calm and use both sides of your brain all the time. And you must have Cash reserve for fighting back.

  • Reply to

    Signed another 100mw project yesterday

    by unclespeaking May 28, 2015 1:49 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking May 29, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    // Not sure why you wouldn't want to pump like SUNE, but I guess they have their reasons.//
    They don't want Gordon to ask how they'll pay for the new projects? Hey, that's another 1 bn yuan on that 100MW project. Well, it's fine, all you have to know is the 25MW will be done by August, also China seems to be speeding up on electricity payment. Will be super if they start getting Fit soon.

  • Reply to

    Bob McAdoo steps up to the plate

    by iahphx May 28, 2015 9:13 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking May 29, 2015 11:33 AM Flag

    Bob McAdoo is actually ranked very high analyst by statistic, it's like #$%$ out of 3633 of them.
    It's not really about the targets they set, people trade according to their change of sentiment and came out with statistic of their "success rate". It's very weird thing.
    Try to keep scores yourself.

  • Ok, nobody will stop you from buying shares cheap, it's none of anybody else's business.
    Uncle just wants to bring your attention to the pending events.

  • Reply to

    Credit Suisse believes they can read minds

    by scottmmoore826 May 28, 2015 10:32 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking May 29, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    Well, what do you expect from the analysts nowadays. This what what Hunter Keay said on 5/26
    "We lower our estimates for most airlines on higher fuel prices. Unfortunately given the amount of capacity creep and likely resulting lack of pricing power we don’t feel like we have the confidence level to take our revenue estimates up concurrently with higher fuel. This probably explains why airline stocks are getting hammered."
    Jet Fuel "PEAKED" on May 5 at $1.907/gal, it has been coming down for the last 3 weeks, and Now it's a PROBLEM for lowering estimates?
    Don't understand why Uncle can't call them rotten dead fish, if they look dead and they stink, that's exactly what they are. Uncle only uses whatever data they can provide me for further analysis, just don't care much about their Targets. Their "sentiment" do affect the stock prices, not ours. It's not fair to keep punching at us then tell us that we're upset, that's totally BS.

  • Reply to

    Credit Suisse believes they can read minds

    by scottmmoore826 May 28, 2015 10:32 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking May 29, 2015 3:27 AM Flag

    Julie Yates? That's called "Girl interrupted", she's probably going through her Manopause; Uncle has followed her for a while, it's just recently she kept changing her mind due to anxiety attacks or something like that.
    Julie Yates Ranks 1804 out of 3633 analysts, while Jamie Baker ranks 3210/3633 (closer to the bottom?).

  • Reply to

    Bob McAdoo steps up to the plate

    by iahphx May 28, 2015 9:13 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking May 29, 2015 2:59 AM Flag

    //Our price target of $82 values shares of American Airlines at approximately 7.5 times our 2015 earnings-per-share estimate of $11.01.//
    This boy may have :backbone?", but he needs to learn some math. Does he see $30 oil coming or what?
    There is NO way AAL will make $11.01/share this year. You gotta be realistic too!

  • unclespeaking unclespeaking May 28, 2015 8:14 PM Flag

    The ONLY reason Uncle goes to the Seeking Blame site is to get the CC transcripts, put in Single Page View, Cut and Paste to Word with own Notes and save for later "use".
    Can't talk about $25 before TSL goes $16 first, and for immediate term, you guys wake me up when it hits $14.

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking May 28, 2015 7:57 PM Flag

    That's what and how you do in an interview,.

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