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American Airlines Group Inc. Message Board

unclespeaking 702 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Sep 10, 2013
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  • That's quite a Fish Talk, Move over, stupid Capacity! Now it's PRSAM and Buybacks relationship.
    //Airlines care about PRASM about as much as most investors care about buybacks (they sort of care). But we expect both views to converge in 2H15 as PRASM gets less worse and buybacks ramp. Oil prices will do what they’ll do but they’ll dictate the situation. If oil prices go up expect capacity cuts and better PRASM to follow (with a two month lag). If oil stays cheap PRASM will stay soft but buybacks, particularly at the Big Three, might explode. Either way, we like the setup. And AAL is in a position to dictate the pace of both. //

  • Reply to

    Options Expiration line-up

    by unclespeaking 22 hours ago
    unclespeaking unclespeaking 12 hours ago Flag

    It's ok to ask on the weekends without disturbing our normal chatting. There're still 2 court hearings going on, maybe we won't hear a thing before the November one? U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Sean H. Lane has declined to release $237m from the reservoir of money on 4/15/15. cited an abundance of caution.

  • Reply to

    KING FISH SPEKS

    by cavalier2015 12 hours ago
    unclespeaking unclespeaking 12 hours ago Flag

    Now, he Gets it.
    1) PRASM doesn’t have to get better for airline stocks to work...
    2) It just has to beat expectations....
    3) investors don’t really care about share buybacks (Uncle doesn't; Uncle cares about the Record Profits).
    4) We believe we’re on the precipice of a period of cash flow hell being unleashed by airlines (now you believe?).
    5) We think most C- level airline executives aren’t losing a ton of sleep these days if investors want to trade their stocks at deeply discounted multiples during periods of record earnings, because it simply allows airlines to buy what they believe are solid long term stories at a sale price. And we get that, and we think most investors get that, too. (Who lost Sleep? Uncle sleeps like babies and Uncle also takes nice naps).

  • Reply to

    Options Expiration line-up

    by unclespeaking 22 hours ago
    unclespeaking unclespeaking 14 hours ago Flag

    //I don't know anything about options//
    God bless you, it's not required to know.
    Why? If it bounced back to $40.88, it's 88c left on the table for the $40 call buyers? It has to swing up and down $40 to force them to close at the bid for max pain, and it's good to close little over $40 to take the shares away from those who sold $40 covered calls as well. Closing little over striking price is the best the market can do. AAL closed at $40.10, nice job. LUV closed $36.20, DAL closed $44.34, not as good for the dealers.
    What's going to happen at early Monday opening? Well, if there were crooks that sold $40 calls Naked, they'll have to buy shares they do not own, some real Pros would love to sell shares to them and immediately buy back at little lower for an "eventually" Up day. That's the Game Plan for Monday.

  • unclespeaking unclespeaking 16 hours ago Flag

    //Parker can use it up to deal with the DOJ and DOT. "The government cannot protect American business oversea" tongue//
    Gee, now DOJ and DOT are part of Parker's team, how wrong can I be when it comes to conspiracy play.
    Maybe that Baghdad Bob (stoxx?) is also on the same team as well? I thought today's action is just option expiration Jittering? That LUV can also be in the play as well?

  • unclespeaking unclespeaking 18 hours ago Flag

    //I have been noticed that AAL is being balanced. First out at $24, highest at $56 and being balanced at $40. Price might go up and down 37-43 but it always comes back to balance $40. //
    Uncle has to keep Righting myself from being Wrong, that $37 is actually Mathematically "Correct" to get the Buyback to Balance at $40.
    With $1,943m spent so far to buyback only 44.5m shares, and with remaining $2,057m left under current program. If and only if AAL does not buyback a single share till it hits $37.06, it can buyback 55.5m more share to bring the total buyback to 100m at total of $4,000m, that's $40/share BALANCED.

  • Gordon seemed to stop defending SUNE for a while?
    He's not bashing Chinese Solar as hard as before either.
    Very weird...

  • unclespeaking unclespeaking 19 hours ago Flag

    //I think you are right.//
    Gee, don't think Uncle can even be Right the 1st time, but since you know the most about the "Balancing, it IS' scheme don't you think Parker can get the biggest bang for the Balance if he writes off all that $640m held in Venezuela?

  • unclespeaking unclespeaking 19 hours ago Flag

    //wonder why all the shorties do not understand this balance price is to buy back as much as possible and still does not burn the stock.//
    Maybe that's also part of Parker's conspiracy to trap all the shorties or even work with them hard on the Balancing act? Now, Uncle understands why Parker doesn't want to increase dividend, it's all getting cleared up.
    Parker studies Sun Tzu's Art of War, it's all about War of Deception.

  • unclespeaking unclespeaking 20 hours ago Flag

    //Price is moving as being said here. Balance! Once this buyback ends//
    Price has been moving nicely; balancing is what IT IS.

  • unclespeaking unclespeaking 20 hours ago Flag

    (Baghdad) Bob, quit all your nonsense ASAP, you're not as funny as you were before.
    You think US has really occupied Iraq?

  • Reply to

    China installed 7.73GW in 1H

    by unclespeaking Jul 29, 2015 9:23 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking 21 hours ago Flag

    19.6GW modules shipped in 1H, along with lots of cells and wafer, not counting oversea production.

  • Reply to

    Spoofing

    by xtraderxxresurrect Jul 31, 2015 5:24 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking 21 hours ago Flag

    //Spoofing, which involves placing then canceling orders to move prices, is suspected in 24 accounts on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges//
    They'll be jailed if they get caught; China has the most "efficient court" system, people are assumed guilty till they prove otherwise. They don't waste time in courts, it's guaranteed Speedy execution.
    What's the charge? If it's Conspiracy to National Security, they get the chance to do it all they want again in their "Next lives".

  • Reply to

    One Hard decision today

    by unclespeaking Jul 30, 2015 6:28 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking 21 hours ago Flag

    You have problem that Uncle sacrifice some ALGT for VA?
    Is it the "Virgin" that get you so upset or you listen to that stupid Fish flip-flopping on VA at CS?

  • Reply to

    APC

    by jtgray24 22 hours ago
    unclespeaking unclespeaking 21 hours ago Flag

    Uncle just got $100 onboard credit by showing holdings of CCL, I know only $100 but free. Next to figure out is how to become frequent cruiser.
    Uncle does not bash stocks, Uncle tells what's going on with stocks. There's nothing wrong telling the truth, unless you expect Uncle to lie and pump stocks?
    AAL is trading near the lowest premium to LUV for the year (lowest was 1.08x), if JPM upgrades LUV just because they think it's not normal LUV is trading at historical low 10x forward P/E, Uncle can also upgrade AAL at super low AAL/LUV ratio? So, what's the Real 10X 2016 taxed EPS for AAL at $60 oil (not $70 analysts have modeled)? Who knows!

  • Reply to

    APC

    by jtgray24 22 hours ago
    unclespeaking unclespeaking 22 hours ago Flag

    Why talking APC? TMUS finally broke out with Uncle's push to switch everybody to TMUS last month to take advantage of their free global data (even at 3G speed).

  • Reply to

    Jet Fuel- 1.46

    by cavalier2015 Jul 31, 2015 3:40 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking 22 hours ago Flag

    You don't get credit for not hedging but you get to make extra profit; you don't really get penalty for hedging since it's part of risk management for the business. It's not just fuel hedging, there's currency hedging as well when you do international business. Airliners make more money when oil price is lower whether they hedge or not, not knowing how to hedge properly may hurt the bottom line though. Uncle prefers regional than legacy airliners, it ain't secret or news here due to strong dollar, fuel cost for domestic players is little bit higher but they have no currency risks. Yeah, LUV and UAL are going back to bad hedging habit, they should stick to what they said they would do by not keep changing strategy, it costs a lot to use swaps. ALK is more simple minded with Calls only, it's 3-5c/gal max to lose which is fine. DAL is a refinery Airline, it's weird that their fuel cost is still so high for next Q.

  • Reply to

    Jet Fuel- 1.46

    by cavalier2015 Jul 31, 2015 3:40 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking 22 hours ago Flag

    Don't tell people you can't do math.
    If it stays low for a month more, you'll see more BK filing from energy companies and less corporate flyers, especially from Texas. We were so close to BK a lot of them last round before they took pre-empted actions to pump it (oil) up. Once you take out all the sick players, oil will come back to more reasonable range, and Dead Fish will have to change their Models which are mostly based on higher than $70 oil for 2016. It's probably ok for the banks as the regulators have warned them on their lendings...

  • Reply to

    Jet Fuel- 1.46

    by cavalier2015 Jul 31, 2015 3:40 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking 22 hours ago Flag

    Uncle's CCL and RCL are more Airlines than Airlines; nobody bashes about Capacity discipline.

  • Lining up on striking prices seen, affecting stocks that have weekly options...
    DAL $44, AAL $40, LUV $36 are challenged... They swing one way then the other around strikes?

AAL
40.10-0.17(-0.42%)Jul 31 4:00 PMEDT