This is a very sound strategy ... to your own financial ruin.
ATHX bull thesis is only about market potential ... and for-hire pumpers are trying to attract new buyers by selling a Dream.
So unfortunate ... that ATHX % of success is only about 20% per historical Standards.
Stem Cell Therapy for Stroke - Gary Steinberg, Stanford University
California Institute for Regenerative Medicine
Watch this video.
1. Why you think all the phase 2 trials have failed so far?
2. Is everyone stupid by ATHX? -- APPARENTLY ATHX is the only one not transplanting the stem cells directly into the brain.
If u look at the rate models ... most of the other trials achieved superior results than Multistem ... yet they all failed in phase II.
Why I were bashing the other stocks in the first places? Because I thought they were worth 0 ... and I took a short position therefore. Apparently I was right
I mean .. Why are you pumping ATHX? ... i assume you are long.
With respect to 1. ... could you please provide some literature where this is stated? ... If it is not important for stem cells to reach the brain, why most of the trial transplant the stem cells directly into the brain?
With respect to 2 ... well .. should they not have foreseen it? ... I mean ... they started in 2011/12 ... and as of August 2013 they were still stating results were expected in mid 2014.
Seems something went wrong ... at the end of the recruiting period.
but fail to address the real questions:
1. Hoe can you hope that the clinical trial is successful if only 0.3% of the Stem Cells are to be found in the brain if administred IV.
2. What did the company postpone the results announcement by about 12 months? What is the reason for the way slower enrollment process towards the end of the PhII trial?...
Reminds me of all the Longs that used to insult me on the LLEN, LPH, CHOP message board ... when I was posting evidence exposing the Companies were not more than SCAMS.
Eventually, they wend down more than 99% since I started posting.
You see, You are a professional pumper. ... btw .. I post FACTs ... and u reply with personal attacks.
This does tell me ... my interpretation of the Events at ATHX is correct ... u know it ... and u have not counter-arguments ... so you bring the conversation on a personal level ... instead of countering my statements with actual information.
It is interesting to see how the automatic sales started to be implemented in last quarter of 2013. The company was first telling investors it was going to Report Stroke clinical trials Data in first half of 2014.
Then it kept pushing the date further away and data are now expected in 3 weeks.
Has this been done in order for the Management to sell more shares at elevated prices? .... Before the announcement of a trial failure?
In the 10Q filing for the three months ending June 30, 2014 ... ATHX Reported:
"Ischemic Stroke: In an ongoing Phase II clinical study ... Enrollment is expected to be completed in the next several months, with initial results available following analysis of the ninety-day patient data. " (page 8)
This is quite a remarkable change in tone. Now the company is not even giving anymore a time frame for the release of the data, nor the comletition of enrollment.
1. Enrollment was first expected to be completed by Q1 2014
2. Then Enrollment was expected to be completed by Q2 2014
3. Then enrollment was expected to be completed by Sommer 2014
4. Now enrollment is expected to be completed in several months? ...
Looks like the company did encounter some substantial problems with enrollment.
In the 10Q filing for the three months ending March 31, 2014 ... ATHX Reported:
"Ischemic Stroke: In an ongoing Phase II clinical study ... Enrollment completion is currently anticipated to occur around the end of the summer of 2014, and initial results are targeted for later in 2014" (page 8)
So, on May 8, 2014 .. when the 10Q was issued the company was still expecting to commmunicate initial results in 2014.
In the 10K filing for the 12 months ending Dec 31, 2013 ... ATHX Reported:
"Ischemic Stroke: In an ongoing Phase II clinical study ... We are targeting to complete enrollment around the end of summer 2014 and release the preliminary results as soon as they are available." (page 5)
Why keeps the company pushing further into time the announcement date?
In the 10Q filing for the three months ending September 30, 2013 ... ATHX Reported:
"Ischemic Stroke: In an ongoing Phase II clinical study ... We anticipate having initial results for the study in mid-2014. ." (page 2)
... ... Interesting the fact that ATHX changed the world from "anticipate announcing initial results" (March 2013) ... into "anticipate having initial results" (since June 2013).
was the company planning not to disclose PhII initial results with investors (not announce them?)
Moreover, now .. In September 2013 .. the company say it will have results withing 12 months (by mid-2014)
In the 10Q filing for the three months ending June 30, 2013 ... ATHX Reported:
"Ischemic Stroke: In an ongoing Phase II clinical study ... We anticipate having initial results for the study in the first half of 2014." (page 9)
... ... Interesting the fact that ATHX changed the world from "anticipate announcing initial results" ... into "anticipate having initial results".
In the 10Q filing for the three months ending March 31, 2013 ... ATHX Reported:
"Ischemic Stroke: In an ongoing Phase II clinical study ... We anticipate announcing initial results for the study in the first half of 2014" (page 9)
In the 10Q for the 3 months ending June 30, 2014, ATHX said: "Ischemic Stroke: ... We anticipate announcing initial results for the study in the first half of 2014". (page 9)
WHAT IS THE LONGS Thesis to contrast this Scientific Finding? ... Remember, Cytomedix preclinical results on Rats were also very very impressive
It is highly uncertain that systemic delivery of any therapeutic agent make sense for a localized and acute event inside the brain.
In a paper by Detante et al (2009) entitled, “Intravenous Administration of 99mTc-HMPAO-Labeled Human Mesenchymal Stem Cells After Stroke: In Vivo Imaging and Biodistribution,” the authors found that IV-injected hMSC are eliminated in urine (~61%), or transiently trapped in lungs (~26%), kidneys (~7%), and liver (~3%) at 2 hours. Only 0.05% of the total IV injected cells were found in the brain (left + right) 2 hours later.
The literature supports dosing something like MultiStem intravenously, but it is clear that the large majority of cells ( 99%) do not end up in the brain. It is a misconception that more cells are better.
-- The preclinical data for both Athersys and Cytomedix are equallty impressive, and Cytomedix dosed on average 1/100th of total number of cells
I advise all the longs to have a look at a defunct company called cytomedix.
Cytomedix in 2014 failed in a clinical trial where it used stem cells to treat patients suffering from a stroke.
. On rats it did perform even better than multistem ... yet in P2 it did miserably fail
MTL falue is somewhere between 0 and 5$ in the current environment.
No one can actually predict it ... since the endoutcome depends exclusively bankers.
- If bankers decide to BK the company ... it is a 0 ...
- If Bankers accept the restructuring proposal without Dilution ... Given the depressed Commodities prices (partly offset by the weaker RUBLE) ... it is a 5$.
- If bankers ask for a stake in the company MTL value for current shareholders will probably lie between 1$ and 3$ ... depending on the restructuring terms.
Of course Pipster will claim he knows ... ... ... and as soon as he does it .. I will start posting with my de-constructive attitude again.
up or down ... no way to know.
Over the next 2 weeks ... 2 developments:
1. Yesterday ... MTL and Rotschild submitted a restructuring Proposal to Sberbank. Some Comments to be expected next week? Today Sberbank said they had not yet looked the proposal.
МОСКВА, 27 мар — РИА Новости/Прайм. Сбербанк пока не изучал предложения "Мечела" по реструктуризации долга, которые получил в четверг от компании, заявил глава банка Герман Греф.
2 March 7, 2015 VTB published (as required by law) its intention to seek recognition of MTL insolvency by court (BK). This message needs to be published 30 days before filing to BK petition with the Court. This would put the date on Monday 6th April 2015.
Search for the following statement on VTB website:
"Заявление ВТБ в связи с уведомлением в СМИ об обращении в суд о несостоятельности компании ОАО «Мечел»"
Seems reasonable that these 2 very important unknowns are the cause for MTL/MTLR to trend lower ahead of the news. After a 300-500% rally .... of course ppl are taking some profits/recoverd losses off the table.