Read my messages ... ... I have been saying it ... since mid 2014:
No points in buying MLT ... the only play is MTLR listed shares in russian.
the Company mess up and loss of credibility.
NEXT WEEK FXCM is expected to report the monthy statistics for January. Expect a collapse ...
Next Week FXCM is expected to release its MONTHLY METRICS for the Month of January 2015.
This Event could be the Catalyst for a 50% move to the downside.
Link to Notes:
Unemon on Seeking alpha
Well, unfortunately our are clueless. Do your DD.
1. The assets now are at the NewCO level. So, LUK will sell the NewCo
2. The convertible debt is at the FXCM Inc Level.
How clueless can u be?
The structure of the Rescue plan was mad in a way to separate the debt from the assets and leave the 175 debt to FXCM shareholders and not to LUK
So... Buyer will not assume the 175m debt since he won't buy FXCM INC but only NEWCO ...
ah ah ah
u r hilarious. Read a few buyouts deals .. and ... move back to a demo account
Best case and realistic scenario assuming that the company will reduce by April its outstanding debt to 250m USD.
1. To reduce the the Debt to 250m USD by april the company will need to sell of assets (probably FXCM Pro) at a price of 70m USD
2. Company will use operating Earnings in the followin 3 years to bay Interest expenses on the Debt and pay down the debt. It is an optimistic Assumption the Company will be able to reduce the debt by 25m per year.
3. 3 years from now the LUK debt will be 175m usd.
On Year 3, FXCM New Co will be sold (LUK Decision) and the proceeds will be shared between LUK and FXCM Inc as illustrated in the Credit Agreement.
Sale should be expected to be not higher than 1b USD for the following 3 reasons:
1. Sale of FXPRO in year 1 will lower FXCM total Valuation. 70-100m USD (given fire sale. FXCM was asking 180m but buyer is willing to pay only 70m)
2. Lower leverage allowed by FXCM results in fewer trades/lower volumes ... hence lower revenue growth
3. Industry regulation after January 2015 Events
4. Reputational Damage
5. 1.2b Peak Valuation for FXCM in January 2015 ... was at record multiples. Price/Sales was 2.76 in January 2012 ... while it was at 1.48 in 2012
FXCM shareholders might be entitled to 1.53 USD in 2018 ...
if u take time value of money into account, the Prevent Value is 0.88 USD per Share.
The mistake in your analysis .. is that u assume ... selling 350m of non core assets will not results in a decrease in the company's value in 3 years from Now.
Remember, Company was valued at 1.2b WITH ALL THE ASSETS. U sell 350m WORTH of assets ... u will need to subtract this amount for the 1.1b SALE PRICE 3 YEARS FROM now.
U also fail to take account the time value of the money ... so .. even under ur scenario ... where u say 4-4.5 in 3 years .. ... at a 20% Discount (normal given the risky situation) ... the CURRENT FAIR VALUE IS 2.31-2.60 USD
sure ... appareantly thes usbmitted a plan to liquidatethe assets of the company and bring home 150m ... based on Lasik multiple.
This translates into 3.5 USD per share ... not bad ..
where did you see the "missing the Nov. 30 loan payment "
I can not find this piece of info anywhere . thank you
You are forgetting a nice detail. In the Forbearance Agreement it was also reported that :
"(c) On or before December 17, 2014, the Borrower shall deliver to the Administrative Agent and the Lenders one or more “indications of interest” from a bona fide third party with respect to a Refinancing, which indications shall be in form and substance reasonably satisfactory to the Administrative Agent. The Borrower shall deliver all such “indications of interest” to the Administrative Agent and the Lenders promptly upon its receipt thereof"
Members of the BOD did participate in the Private Placement on December 12, 2014 .... only 5 days prior the above mentioned Deadline.
Do you think management would have put in the money ... if they had known PPHM was going to default on the December 17 Milestone?
-- u have to assume that the Company delivered to the Administrative Agent one or more “indications of interest” from a bona fide third party with respect to a Refinancing ... on or before December 17, 2014
Not MTL traders in Singapore at risk of Default
MTL needs to pas 60+ b RUB about 1b usd ... ...
Looks like ... they will bk it
per 13F-HR, as of 09/30/14 Goldman Capital Management had only 316,865 shares! Today it announced now it has 1,050,099 shares!
This is an increase of 733,234 shares in about 3 Months!
Neal Goldman was an Accredited HNWI that partecipated in the December 12, 2014 Private Placement Transacton. In this PP Transactin he bought 50,000 shares (+ 25,000 Calls) for $109,500.
This Means that 683,234 shares were purchases on the Open Market ... (or 658,234 SHARES if u consider the 25,000 CALLS of the PP).
Buying 683,234 shares on the Open Market .... of a company that is in Defaults .. and heading towards BK? .. This is a pretty Bold Trade.
Looks like A long to me!
management has been buying shares at a price which will make the investment profitable only if phmd trades at prices 2.19$ in the future. This investment was made on DEC 12, 2014:
- PHMD probably needed 1.4m nit to cause another default event.
- IMO price was set at 2.19 not because management wanted to get retail investors to buy (given phmd was trading at a 35% discount) but rather to avoid a shareholders approval .... required if phmd had issued shares accounting for more than 5 of the post-transaction total outstanding shares
- why would the members of the board of directors + some private investors pump monez inti phmd if they thought the company was going to go bk? ... they are not making a long term bet ... since this problem needs to be addresses by february 28, 2015. If not addressed BK will likely result.
- PHMD is trading at a 70% discount to its competitors ... basically trading at BK prices. Yet boar members + private investors decided to put 1.4m into the company ... less than 2.5 month from a crucial deadline?
well ... this is a reason good enough for me to buy into phmd ... and I wonder why would someo e sell at these levels.
Had the 1.4m private placement not taken place? ... I wiould never buy this POS .... since, despite a 70% discount to its pears ... the BK likelihood is high. Private placement ... tells me ... bosrd members and private investors sre betrin against what appeared to be the most likely outcome ...BK
See you at $27
NEPHROGENEX INC (NRX): An Undervalued Company With A 200%+ Upside Potential In The Next 18 Months
Like it or not .. the company has enough cash till 1Q 2016 when the interim analysis will be perfomed! The Data (if good) will then allow the Company to find a partner for the future.
usingaliase = useless!? that's the meaning of the alias?