Exactly, I do know nothing about the data results. But the selling activity over the past few days indicates that someone does know something.
And since Price is collapsing .. news must be real bad.
News is likely leaking out. Multistam PhII failed to meet the primary endpoint?
Down a lot ... exaclty around the dates Clinical data are expected to be unblinded.
News leakage almost certain.
"I doubt VTB would be agreeable with a plan that involved "Don't worry how, we'll get you your money"."
I would argue that this was only part of the strategy adopted by MTL at the meeting.
In addition to that ...IMO ... towards the end of the meeting Igor asked VTB CEO if he could join him for a couple of minutes outside the negotiation room. This is where Igor handed over a bag full of cash to the Banker.
Which Piece Missing? .... LCAV? ... well ... to me LCAV has always been a POS. I mean .. I was following it before PHMD acquired it. Valuations were OK, lots of Cash on hands. ... E it was trading at EV value of $20m (back in Mar 2012). I did not invest in it because I thought the business was not viable and set to decline further. Was really surprised when it was acquired by PHMD and a very high premium over the price at which it was trading 3 months prior acquisition.
So ... if LCAV is the missing Piece you are referring to ... I am glad that Piece is missing.
Where they come up with the $40m? ... well .. they could try to refinance it ... when results will start to show improvements in the coming Quarters. Or, they could sell other sided or the business .... .... or .... again ... if Business improves, PPS could go up in the 6 region ... and they could issue new shares at those prices to get rid of the debt.
Of course, PHMD will never see the 10s again (or at least not in the foreseeable future) . However, bears at this prices must be assuming PHMD will go BK this year (otw shorting it does not make much sense given its cost). IMO BK can be ruled out ... given the recent developments (sale of LCAV, slightly improving business QoQ and extended Forbearance agreement).
Longs Wake UP ... and look at the 2014 trading pattern.
The PPS started to collapse way before the results were made public. To me this indicates that at ATHX news/results leak before being released to the public. JMO .. but hey ... it seems that this does happen quite often in small cap names
If you exclude the "JAPAN PARTNERSHIP NEWS " day, TODAY .... it was the highest Volume day since MAY 2014 UC Trial failure announcement.
mmmhhhh ...looks like ... news started to leak? Bad results to be announced soon?
Going to 1 soon
This reallz looks like a major FAILURE
Little doubt now .. that this is trading of bad news being somewhere out there ...
Sock did not move up because of BIOASIA. The topic of BioASIA panels were disclosed in the PR. ... so .. no one could have had the expectation of the results going to be released at bioasia.
... down 15% ... in just 2 days after the Last patient is supposed to have complete the 90 day follow up.
... and results unblinded.
This is probably the time you do like to be friend with the management ... so that you can get a useful heads up on the results...
Someone is selling big. alreadz 1.6m volume ....in just 2 hours of trading. See you at 1.00 after the results.
likely to 1.00 ...
since the recent sell off is likely in indication of news leakage ... about data being not good
mmm ... I smell something is wrong here.
Bad data to come?
With the rouble being so weak, ... should we not have expected MTL to pay VTB the 4.5b RUB (Less than 80m USD) ... out of Op Cash Flow generated by the Business?
The fact that MTL needs to pledge additional shares to get more loans to repay VTB .... 80m USD ... is suspicious. Isn't it?
The main reason MTL might be able to avoid BK .... WAS given by the weakness in the Ruble and the resulting margins expansion caused by a cost structure mostly in RUB coupled with sales prices mostly determined in USD.
Unfortunately, starting Feb 1, 2015 the RUBLE has started to appreciate and is currently up more than 22.5%
Feb 1, 2015 the RUBLE was down 42.8% from Sept 30, 2014 levels
Mar 25, 2015 the RUBLE is down 29.96% from Sept 30, 2014 levels
Ruble (3m average price) Decline:
2014Q3 over 2014Q2 = -4.15%
2014Q4 over 2014Q3 = -24.49%
2015Q1 over 2014Q4 = -23.44%
Feb1, 2015 - March 25, 2015 = +22.5% (Still down 15% from the 2014Q4 average price).
While at current levels the RUBLE is still 15% below the 3m average for the Period Ending Dec 31, 2014 ... ... if the trend continues is not a good news for MTL.
UNFORTUNATELY, MORE BAD NEWS CONTINUE TO FLOW ON THE COMMODITIES PRICING SIDE.
Prices for MTL products are down approximately 10+% since Sept 30, 2014 (if we take the REBAR average Price over the Quarter as a Proxy).
Of course ... I am not claiming PHMD is a 16$ stock ... lol ... it would make no sense. What I am telling you is that I do believe the PHMD has some intrinsic Value. With Debt now at 40m USD and a Forbearance Agreement expiring only in 12 months ... seems to me that the BK scenario can be ruled out.
Banks would not have agreed on an extension of the forbearance in the absence of some positive business development. As long as PHMD losses money, creditors are seeing their recovery rate diminishing. So, another 12 months forbearance extension makes me think creditors believe in the turnaround story.
With The Cost of Shorting at 30% p.a., almost 50% of the effective free float shorted ... and the BK off the table ... seems to me it does not make much sense keeping open a Short position at the prices.
Of course ... at $8 PHMD would be a great short. ... It's all about the right price... never be bull or bear a priori. This strategy unfortunately does not pay off at the end of the day.
Sentiment: Strong Buy