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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

unemon1 365 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 12, 2014 11:22 AM Member since: Nov 19, 2012
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  • unemon1 unemon1 Aug 31, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    and you again failed to back up your 15000 boepd claim ... with facts! ahahaha ... are you ... gems idiot micro cap finders? ... lol

  • Q2 2014 10Q report, on page 50, you can find the Total Contractual Obligations of END ... by period (per Payments Due Date):

    - OVER THE NEXT 12 Months (July14-June15) END has a total of 285.925m Contractual Obligations (to pay).

    - Q2 2014 10Q report, on page 49, you can find the preliminary Capital Budget ... for 2014. Assuming END plan will be similar in H2 2014, We can Expect END to have 60-80m CAPEX over the next 12 months ( July14-June15). Let's take the mean (70m)

    - Total Gross Cash G&A Expenses have averaged approx 6m per Quarter this year. We can assume approximately 25m for JUL15-JUN15

    Give rochell his gas (and will lower the average price of boe ... ) we probably have to assume an average boe average price of 80-90 USD ... let's assume 85$ per boe.

    We assume a 20% cash operating expenses on Production.

    So, you can calculate END required average boepd production/sale for the period JUL14-JUN15 by using the following Forumla

    (boepd*boeprice*365)*(100%-20%) –285.925 m USD (Contractual Obligations) – 25m (Total Gross Cash G&A Expenses) -70 Capex

    EXCLUDING any Tax PTR payments, to CASH break Even, ... will need to generate/produce/sell at least 15,500 boepd over the period JUL14-JUN15 (ASSUMING a price of 85$ boe).

    EXCLUDING any Tax PTR payments, to CASH break Even, ... will need to generate/produce/sell at least 14,500boepd over the period JUL14-JUN15 (ASSUMING a price of 90$ boe).

    END guidance for JUL14-SEP14 is about Average daily physical production volumes are expected to be in the range of 9,500 – 10,500 boepd for the third quarter .

    if this will be the production of Q3 ... END will need in the next 3 quarters ... a production of 16,000 boepd!

    Given the history of failure to achieve constant production at the Field .... ... now we understand why Markets are trading END at prices that Discount a 90% probability of Bankruptcy.

    I am not sure END can achieve consistent production at over 16k boepd for 3 quarters.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • unemon1 unemon1 Aug 31, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    If you want to be taken seriously, please elaborate on your claim: " I think Endeavour can get past 15,000 per day in Q4 and Q1 2015. "

    I would like for you to break down each field boepd production (with the magnitude of and the reason for the increase in production(i.e. additional well)).

    Thank you!

    *END sellers/buyers ... have experienced in the past .... pumping articles of self-proclaimed successful investors ... that however failed to provide any supportive argument to their claims! Hopefully, you can share your logic with us

  • unemon1 unemon1 Aug 31, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    Well, if you assume that " the company generates enough production to generate sufficient cash flow to meet all obligations thru June 2015 w/o the need to execute any forward sales. " ... then ... the debt will not be reduced by 1c.

    liabilities will be reduced by approximately 109m USD ... (the monetary productons payments that are now on the Balance Sheet).

    The minimum production number I reported in the pevious post ... are the mimimums ... END needs to generate/produce/sell ... in order to be able to survive.

    -.- of course, the company could roll'over some monetary productions payments (i.e. enter into new deals). However, I am not sure ... it's worth paying 10% per year implicit interest! (that's about 25% of current END Mcap)

  • unemon1 unemon1 Aug 30, 2014 9:08 PM Flag

    Assuming END needt to meet all the debt obligations due over the next 12 month .. within the next 9 months ... then ... to Cash BE ... end would need to produce/sell ... 12,500 boepd ... at a price of 90 USD per boe ... on every day of the coming 8 months (starting July 2014)

    However, if you consider that (22.5m will not be paid / see the Forward sale to be delivered in Q3-4 2014, than the company still has 83m in Cash ... and than the company needs to mantain a 40m Cash at hand (for safety) ... then ... -- END would need an average of "only" 11,500 boepd sales/production… in oder to be able to meet its obligations withing the next 9 months.

    To sum UP: ... even if END will not be able to post a profit ... ... if it keeps an average of let's say ... 12,000 boepd production over the coming 12 months ... it can survive:

    --- This is contingent on BOE prices staying at or above 90 USD per BOE

  • unemon1 unemon1 Aug 30, 2014 9:00 PM Flag

    Cash operating Expenses at current Prices are about 20% of Barrel sale price. 10% is the pct for Bacchus and 20% for Rochelle. Assuming a revenue mix of 30% 30% 40% …. The average cash Operating Expenses is approximately 17%.  let’s round this up to 20%
    - Let’s add approximately 6m USD of G&A cash expenses per quarter and 7m Petroleum revenue Tax  52m per year
    - Let’s add approximately 50m USD Capex for the period July 2014 June 2015.

    Total Cash NEED for END is therefore: (boepd*boeprice*365)*(100%-20%) – 194.54m USD (Debt related Payments – 52m per year (Pet Tax plus G&A) – 50m USD (CAPEX).
    U can set BOEPD … as the … independent variable.
    Within the Year … … to Cash Break Even … END needs to (on average) … produce/sell … at least 11,500 boepd … at an average price of 90 USD per boe.

    The problem is that … debt are not equally distributed over the next 4 quarter. Instead, Most of the Cash outflows are in the Q1 2015. This means that … from July 2014 to March 2015 … end needs to produce well more than 11,500 boepd … in oder to be able to meet its obligations.

  • unemon1 unemon1 Aug 30, 2014 8:11 PM Flag

    So, Starting July 2014 ... till June 30, 2015 ... END will have to pay in Cash ... approximately 194.54m USD in CASH …. Just to honor its debts.

  • END Hat folgende Schulden:

    Senior notes, 12% fixed rate, due 2018 -- 540m -- Q1 und Q2 Zahlungen
    Convertible senior notes, 5.5% fixed rate, due 2016 -- 135m -- Q1 und Q2 Zahlungen
    Convertible senior notes, 6.5% fixed rate, due 2017 -- 17.5m -- Q2 und Q3 Zahlungen
    Term loan facility, variable rate, due 2017 - 7+ 125bp -- 125m -- Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Zahlungen
    Convertible bonds, 11.5% until March 31, 2014 and 7.5% thereafter, due 2016 -- 80.69m -- Quarterly (Aber kein Cash outflow)

    Effektive Cash-Out-flows for Zinsen per Quarter:

    Q3 2014: -- etwa 40.27m
    Q4 2014: -- etwa 3.325m
    Q1 2015: -- etwa 39.94m
    Q2 2015: -- etwa 2.187m

    1. Cash at Hand, incresed quite significantly in Q2 2014 ... because in Q2 2014 ... END did not have any significant Interest/Coupon payment on its debt (see also Q2 2015 ... in Q2 End does have to pay only 2.185m interest/coupons)
    --- That's the main reason why the Cash balance at END increased from 55m to 83m USD (about 28m USD)

    2. In 2014Q3 ... end will have to make about 39.94m interest payments (cash outflow)

    3. In 2014Q4 ... end will have to make about 3.325 m interest payments + 5.8m monetary production principal payment (cash outflow) for a total cash outflow of 9.1m USD.

    4. It is really interesting ... to consider how much money does END need to honor its obligations in Q1 2015:
    --- 2.1. END needs to pay about 39.94m (cash) in Coupons to the debt holders (interests)
    --- 2.2. END needs to do a 51.7m USD monetary production principal payment in Q1 2015
    ---------- Q1 2015 TOTAL END CASH OUTFLOW ... just to not default on the debts ... will be 91.6m USD

    5. 2015Q2 ... ned is a little more luck ... since it's interest payments will be only 2.187m. April 2015 End also need to do a 51.7m USD monetary production principal payment
    ---------- Q2 2015 TOTAL END CASH OUTFLOW ... just to not default on the debts ... will be 53.9 USD

  • Reply to

    Pippa ... what's going on?

    by unemon1 Aug 28, 2014 4:03 PM
    unemon1 unemon1 Aug 30, 2014 1:38 AM Flag

    ahahah .... sure... same logic was applied by mongoloids on the lpih, llen, #$%$ ... yahoo messge board ... we know now how was the mongoloidt there pippa ... right?

  • Can you please confirm it?

  • Good call pippa ... defending the US ADRs ... ah ah ...

    MICEX listed shares is the only play

  • Reply to

    "Show Cause" hearing moved outl 2 weeks..

    by madaniels57 Aug 20, 2014 3:32 PM
    unemon1 unemon1 Aug 29, 2014 4:01 AM Flag

    First attempt did not fail ... ... or at least ... and agreement was apparently reached IMO ... but ... MY did fail in the between ... when ... the plan to list his assets in China did not work out.

    See KSE postponed DEAL.

    let s see if MY makes a 8 Zeros offer again ...

  • Reply to

    Pippa ... what's going on?

    by unemon1 Aug 28, 2014 4:03 PM
    unemon1 unemon1 Aug 29, 2014 12:59 AM Flag

    ah ah ah ... pippi how idiot are you?? ah ah ah

    woah ... u r amazing .... ah ah ah ... if they dilute they will end up owning 85% of mtl .... 85% is better than 67 .... right?

    well sorry if its too complicated for u ... but .. do not worry ... ur teacher told me that s going to be teached u only next year ... when u finally get to 3rd grade ... ...

    does it suck to be the 15 years old ... and still in 2nd grade?

  • Reply to

    Pippa ... what's going on?

    by unemon1 Aug 28, 2014 4:03 PM
    unemon1 unemon1 Aug 28, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    lol ... so .. what your are saying ... is ... that ... Banks will take the 67.4% stake of Igor ... and ... not dilute the remaining 32.6% of the shareholders? ...

    lol

  • Reply to

    Pippa ... what's going on?

    by unemon1 Aug 28, 2014 4:03 PM
    unemon1 unemon1 Aug 28, 2014 5:05 PM Flag

    woahh ... finally I agree with you!

    "putin says save mtl, it will be saved. that is the bottom line..." ... THAT'S CORRECT! ...

    Putin did not say ... SAVE MTL SHAREHOLDERS! ...

  • ah ah ah ... lol ... I guess ... u regret not having shares in Russia ... but only shars in the U.S. ...lol

  • during a meeting today

    «Мечел» разработал программу своего спасения

  • ROBSHEMANSKI ... is on drugs tonight ... ahahah

  • Reply to

    Deusch Bank upgrades YGE to 8.00 today

    by robshemanski Aug 27, 2014 5:24 PM
    unemon1 unemon1 Aug 27, 2014 5:58 PM Flag

    hey ... are you somking a new quality of weed? ... Deutsche bank analyst (Vishal Shah) ... kept a buy reccomendation on YGE .... but lowered the price target to 5.00 from 6.00

    Roth Capital also lowered its price target from 4.00 to 3.50

INSM
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