Great points podraza. I would of thought we would be at least $40 by now but my timing may be off a few weeks. The news that has come out has been positive and as ociferdibble says many funds may not want to put money to work in VRX until after Q1 report and CC.
Looks like a lot of stops were taken out at $30 and cleaned up things for a more solid move up. The fact that Ackman says they are not looking to sell their top products doesn't mean they wont it just means they aren't actively looking to sell but if the right offer comes they would sell.
My guess would be within next 2 weeks. He will be changing a lot of corporate structural things and probably wants to settle in for at least a few days before he starts making TV appearances IMO
That is where we are more or less! All the emotional nervous go with the flow retail investors-traders (millennials) sold in panic. Wait until Papa comes out and says positive things and wait until rating agencies upgrade debt. Once they announce a few asset sales and start paying down some debt that will be seen as very positive and a move in the right direction.
The stock has been punished for its past but is not being rewarded or treated fairly for its current revenue-incom. It will eventually have its share price reflect its current worth ($40-$60 range depending on who you ask).
Exactly. Its just 'emotional' retail traders trading on words. Institutions that bought recently and own do their own DD and are not emotional about trades. Got a lot lower then I thought it would but in the long term its meaningless. Credit rating uprades should come out this week which will provide a nice lift but we really need nice asset sales to really start jumping IMO
I wouldn't be surprised as he could force a hostile takeover on VRX at say $50 or $60 just to spite his rival Ackman. Not sure if he has even been in same company as him but this would be a good bet.
Thanks. I think they are panicing since nothing else was found in accounting issues. Also, nothing new was found in 10K, they got extensions for 10Q, hired a well respected new CEO and completely revamped their entire BOD.
Great points. Also they have 1.4 billion in cash. R&D can be outsourced thereby sharing future profits from that and they will sell assets as you say. When a frugle NYU professor buys VRX as a value play and says fair value is $43 and change its hard to argue with that. VRX has a lot of valuable assets that other large pharma's want. With a forward PE of just 5x we should be at $40 a share. Debt over time gets easier to pay off with inflation and a 3% yearly drug price increase after the initially lowering will go a long way. This company was never worth $240 much less $200 much less $150 but it is no doubt in my mind worth $40-$60 per share now.
Nothing criminal was done no action can be taken! It was bad business judgement by Pearson and the board and CFO. They are gone so get over it! NEW management new culture new pricing new books end of story. Not a fast growing company anymore but a sound one which over time is preferable and sustainable. The model was flawed hence stock going from $200's down to $33! The market has priced in everything and any positives will be rewarded. I think the company should sell off all assets as the sum of the parts are worth north of $60 after debt is paid off with conservative multiples. The problem is since Ackman and other large shareholders break even is a lot higher they may be unwilling to take $60 per share.
I agree. Its amazing how the government tries to bite the hand that feeds them. If it weren't for capitalists and these companies they would have almost no revenue or ability to exist! Its just the pile on mentality. VRX has cleaned house and is drastically changing their culture to most likely a slow growing boring big pharma but that is fine with me as that would have the stock trading around $60. Look for some asset sales to be announced over the coming weeks and positive comments by Papa and the new board.
VRX can be equated as a bus driver who drove fast and got a lot of tickets and ended up losing his license and that bus is now being driven by a completely new driver with all the comforts and features that bus had being similar except slower driving no tickets and cleaner!
Its a non-event Valeant has removed just about all board members directors, CEO, CFO which where behind the whole problem. They no longer do that strategy anymore. Its a new company now and is valued very cheaply due to the past. That is the past and that is why they call it the past! New CEO will be changing culture, relationships, pricing and image.
Stock is averaging almost $32 per share since the fall from 60's so that looks like a floor. A little shocking to say the least we are down so much much less not up considering BK and default are off the table now. New directors and new CEO will have their positive impact soon.
Also, not the Gap has been filled from last week when Papa was announced as CEO that gap needed to fill before moving up and it has so that is positive.
Its rigged! Short term at least. Mid term and long term VRX holders will be fine. The average price per share since drop from 60s to this level is about $32 or so. Looks like 'sell the news' crowd is at work. No other reason as 10K filing on time is a very positive development along with new board members and directors. Its a different company then it was just days ago. The market doesn't get it just yet. I think we will close positive today nonetheless ; )
Looks like some traders playing for a huge pop today are selling now that that trade for them is over. Nothing more and we should resume upwards once they are gone. Now that board and Ackman are free to buy shares if they do buy stock should move a few points higher on that news alone IMO
10K is not forward looking only what occurred so I don't think its a big deal either way other than they will not be in default anymore! I think what is taking so long in the several years of 10k a's they will file along with 2015 10k. Hopefully we get something by 8am. We close out tomorrow around $37-$38 and will go up much further in the coming weeks.
I agree they have managed expectations poorly. However, a filing before open tomorrow and all will be forgiven! A little surprising of the weak stock performance today considering the senate hearing is now in the rear view mirror. Lowering prices should increase revenues if they get the pricing point correct so not a bad thing at all. There are still asset sales to be announced in the coming days or weeks that could give a nice lift to the stock IMO
I can't believe the $40 calls are trading at $.30 right now with stock at $35.50 that is huge volatility!
Yes I have puts and calls sold as well I agree. At least 3 people on this message board that gave me 3 thumbs down for saying what the company told me! Go figure! It shows people still blame the messenger!!!
Bondguy, Ken emailed me details of a creditors committee meeting June 7th with unsecured attending as well. Its a slow process but at least we will have some representation in BK. I am hoping there are separate attorneys for secured and unsecured creditors!