Get out of them they will expire worthless since there are no trade-able contingent value rights attached to them! I unloaded my March $3's for $.25 when PATH was trading at $3.30 as I didn't have enough cash to exercise and sell. This deal is a dissapointment I end up losing a decent amount in this stock and tied up my money for almost a year! MAPP way overpaid and we got way less then we were worth $5-$6 share in cash IMO.
Many of us warned people that as time went on the bargaining strength of PATH would lesson. The way I see it the 'Big 4' will be lucky to end up with a 50% gain 'at the end of the day' and that is close to 10 years of investment in NuPathe (including time before went public)!
Great site rainbow thanks for posting the info.. I am confused on their trend when it says 24 hour trend change when it says down do they refer to more of a draw or less of a draw?
Also, I like the natgasweather site as well as it shows the temperature differences based on seasonality and shows forecasts and other data as well like below:
"The next Arctic should push into the northern Rockies around the 20th and rapidly advance through the Plains and Midwest by the 22nd. This outbreak looks exceptionally cold with temperature anomalies running well over 25-35°F below normal. How far south is still a bit uncertain, but there is potential for the extreme cold to again push deep into Texas and even the Southeast. The biggest challenge with this outbreak is how fast it spreads to the east. There is plenty of data to suggest it will get there fairly quickly. However, there is also some support to keep the ridge over the east several days longer with an even more pronounced warm up. This will be sure to give the heating markets fits as the differences between the two scenarios could be a 30-50F temperature difference (highs in the 50s vs highs in the single digits to teens). There will also be areas of snowfall as the initial cold front blasts through the country with additional snow events as the pattern progresses. Once the cold gets established over the eastern US, huge natural gas and heating draws should be expected. There is nothing to suggest the cold will significantly retreat or modify after Christmas."
I agree. Also, a lot of the selling today was most likely the funds that own "dividend paying stocks" and since IAG no longer pays any dividend at the moment they were required to sell. I have heard the number of such funds in IAG (specifically income or dividend only funds) is about 15-17 million shares.
For those selling there we a lot of buyers so the new owners of IAG shares surely see value where they bought it today. The market is often irrational and its best to try to ignore emotional trading.
I agree stockmaven it makes no sense why people are bailing at multi-year lows nonetheless! I guess they would of rather IAG increase the dividend and run out of cash in 2 years instead!
Cooler heads will prevail. I didn't think it would trade below the $3.70's today so I think a lot of stop losses are being taken out. IAG could be bought out in the $5's at this point!
I hope so retiredgm65 and dkwilk as I guess we got spoiled with such an early large draw number last week I expected more! Still below last year and 5 year average which is good at least.
I was expecting -180 or so based on the much colder weather versus the week before. I guess there were more pipelines still being hooked up in the Marcelleus? A disappointing number for the week ending period of December 6th IMO
Agreed thestockmaven! I had spoken to the company almost a year ago telling them they should cut or stop the dividend and they claimed they and their investors like the dividend! EVERYONE knew they would suspend the dividend when gold stayed at the $1,250 level for a while and even in the prior earnings release they said it was 'under review'. I think the shorts tried to hammer it in AH to panic retail but I agree it will close up tomorrow at the close.
A solid balance sheet is far more important then giving away cash when cash is not being made so this decision long overdue should be celebrated.
I agree denzerini I believe its a lot of tax loss selling since SD is one of the few stocks to go down in 2013! Also, the usual 'window dressing' so SD does not show on the 'books'. Unfortunately SD better start its move as I don't know how much longer before the market makes a 10%-20% correction and we all know how SD loves participating in downward market moves but not upward ones!
Another thing to not is this is the first time in a long time I have seen the "cash price" of NG trade above the futures contract! Sitting at $4.31 as of just a while ago whereas Jan 2014 contracts are at $4.25.
It may cameron I am not sure there is a lot of options for December and volume has picked up so it could be that any time we are over $2 they are trying to 'hedge' their warrants and lock in profit difference when they eventually convert. We are at an all time high in short interest shares in Nupathe and that cannot be disputed!
One would think that if they (warrant holders) were so sure the stock was going to take off why would they 'hedge' which I would agree with that question! Several have mentioned here the 'high borrowing rate' for PATH shares which agrees with the 'narrative' of the increasing short interest and options interest.
Yes, its the same someone that "knows something"! ; )
Short interest up another 300,000+ in 2 weeks! Source: Nasdaq
11/29/2013 3,189,051 230,459 13.837824
11/15/2013 2,875,338 336,930 8.533933
10/31/2013 2,518,748 299,588 8.407373
10/15/2013 1,979,110 126,975 15.586612
9/30/2013 1,844,716 117,664 15.677828
9/13/2013 1,544,649 106,215 14.542663
8/30/2013 1,522,321 87,243 17.449205
8/15/2013 1,441,916 143,007 10.082835
7/31/2013 1,302,135 68,849 18.912911
7/15/2013 1,183,996 66,210 17.882435
6/28/2013 1,075,607 93,851 11.460794
6/14/2013 926,460 162,718 5.693654
A couple of years ago when I inquired to the company they said for every $1 in NG movement equates to $.10 in EPS. I would have to think that with more shares but a lot more NG from the Miss (more than making up for decline in WTO) plus NG in the gulf that that figure is in the $.15-$.20 EPS for every $1 NG price move.
Regardless it increases the NAV of SD and any potential sale value which is very important as well for the PPS.
I hope you are right since they (Novartis) definitely have a lot of reasons to partner. One can't help but wonder how much this LTS sale saga is impacting PATH or PATH impacting LTS sale saga? Perhaps one or the two has to have a deal for the other to work at its best potential at least short term? I am sure there are contingent financing plans (i.e. 5 million LOC for PATH to get them through first quarter of next year if no deal is struck by then).
This December option market for PATH is quite remarkable with 1.6 million shares levered via options! That is most unusual for a company with this small of a float (well over 10% Total float levered). Something is going to give one way or another by OPEX!
That is one long walk in the cold rainbow! Glad you made it back okay. Freezing rain is worse than snow IMO! Yes, the only time I left the house today was to get the mail as its darn cold here as well! Some good games on tonight and looking forward to Sunday football as well!
Also, I was looking at the rig count for NG as as most of us know the production drops off sharply after 24 months and at this time in 2011 there were 856 NG rigs drilling and the next week 820, 818, 802 and 809 to end 2011. The NG rig count continued to decline sharply into 2012 and by August it was under 500. Hence, we should look for the draws to increase versus last year even if the winter ends up being the same exact as last season. Also, a much slower build should be expected in 2014 build season for reason mentioned plus lack of new unhooked up pipelines in the Marcelleus like we saw in 2013. So far it looks like it will be as cold or even colder!
I predict a draw of 183 BCF when the NG numbers come out for under-grond storage next Thursday for week ending December 6th.
I think the draw for the following week will be 202 as that is reflective of weather for today through next Friday where the East will feel the cold a lot more too!
Unfortunately, with a small company such as NuPathe technicals mean nothing without a partner and soon! IF our whole partnership was based on the LTS sale then us retail shareholders are #$%@!%# in the short to medium term!
Ironically, LTS would be worth a couple hundred million more if the potential buyers actually believed 100% PATH would have the financing/partner for the deal and for it to start producing patches soon so it would impact LTS's bottom line for 2014! It kind of makes one wonder if Novartis is the one holding up things or not regarding the LTS potential sale?
retireddgm65, are you referring to the Gulf Coast Pipeline Project from TransCanada? I have read that it is or should be completed by end of this month and that will move a lot of oil out of Cushing? Here is a piece from TransCanada site:
"The Gulf Coast Pipeline Project is an approximate 485-mile (780 kilometre), 36-inch crude oil pipeline beginning in Cushing, Okla., and extending south to Nederland, Texas, to serve the Gulf Coast marketplace.
Construction of the Gulf Coast Pipeline began in August 2012 with an anticipated in service date of late 2013. The Gulf Coast Pipeline will have the initial capacity to transport 700,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) with the potential to transport 830,000 bbl/d to Gulf Coast refineries."
Likewise rainbow. I have been frequenting this Message board a lot less often due to the way it has deteriorated over the past year.
I do not think they will be able to make up or come close to the 20bcfd supply wise in the medium term (1-2 years) but demand wise I think the dual coal NG power plants can tilt more toward coal if NG gets too high thus helping supply levels stabilize a bit although they still could be at dangerously low levels should we get another very cold winter. Recall last year when NG was below $2 and the demand that year was a record from what I remember?
Excellent points rainbow we are still in Fall and those numbers don't include this even colder week which ends tomorrow! We will be starting winter with a lot less in storage and I don't see any reason why the winter will be any warmer than last year! Sun Spots are pretty much at the lowest levels of activity in decades so this could be like the cold 70's all over again!
I also do not think the 2014 build will be nearly as high as the 2013 since all the pipes that could be hooked up in the Marcelleus have pretty much have been. That, along with declining gas production in places like the Haynesville make a very bullish argument for NG.
Jim Rogers wasn't bullish on too many things in an interview I watched yesterday but he was bullish on NG!
Also, I wonder when SD will be coming out with the new type curve as I think it was last December or January if I am not mistaken?
Almost 200 BCF in storage below last year at this time and I think the 2014 build will not be as large as 2013 due to all the infrastructure hookups of pipelines that were completed in 2013 causing a large build rate.
Surprising SD and other O&G companies aren't trading better but I guess the market is discounting the last couple weeks as 'abnormal'. I think it will be -183 for the week ending December 7th. Last year for the period ending December 7th there was a 2 BCF build so we are well on our way for a much larger draw down this season!