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Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation Message Board

uplinvestor 25 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 21, 2015 9:11 PM Member since: Jan 7, 2014
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  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Jul 21, 2015 9:11 PM Flag

    No, he is not extrapolating a full year's revenue. He clearly states that a majority of this revenue was for inventory stocking. His assumptions / calculations were based on what NVS reported.

    This shouldn't be a $23 stock for too long as more people figure this out. Also, the NATCO revelation that they don't expect to get Copaxone approval for 18-24 months is huge. They are probably running into a lot of issues with their application at the FDA

    ------
    -- A sizable portion of 2Q15 Glatopa sales were for inventory stocking, according to NVS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Mylan's partner NATCO which submitted the Copaxone ANDA is now saying that their generic version of Copaxone won't be approved for at least 18-24 months in a presentation made last month.

    Expanding US Footprint Through a Differentiated Product Pipeline of Niche and Complex Products (Cont’d)

    ...

    - 14 Para IV filings with combined market size of US$11.1bn and 4 big ticket Para III filings

    - Well positioned to unlock its pipeline value in the near term with expected approvals of 4-5 ANDA in 18-24 months including gCopaxone 20mg in US

    This is a huge positive for MNTA. That means they can make a ton of money being the sole generic for Copaxone for two years.

    In addition they will be eligible for the bulk of the additional $120 million in milestone payments.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Jul 21, 2015 4:03 PM Flag

    So, we get to about $41-42 million revenues for Q2.

    $20 million milestone payments
    $19 million GLATOPA revenue
    $2-3 million Enox revenue

    Yahoo consensus estimates are for $23.6 million and a loss of 0.19 cents. So, we could have a positive EPS and $17-18 million beat on revenues

    Looks like a no-brainer buy at 22.5 :-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Jul 21, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    Scratch that. They will be cash flow positive as there were two $10 million milestone payments in Q2:

    • FDA approval: $10M

    • U.S. product launch: $10M

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • There are 7 mentions of GLATOPA in NVS's earnings presentation. But it doesn't include exact GLATOPA revenue numbers.

    Sandoz US sales +23%, driven by Glatopa™, Dermatology

    Note: It would be silly to highlight Sandoz sales being up 23% with very minimal revenues from GLATOPA. So, there must have been significant inventory stocking revenues for GLATOPA.

    -------
    DewDiligence comes up with 70 million using the logic below (on IHub):

    NVS’ Sandoz Division’s YoY growth was high single digits excluding Glatopa, according to NVS’ 2Q15 CC (time 59:35). For the sake of discussion, let’s say “high single digits” is 8%.

    We know that the Sandoz Division overall grew 11% YoY in constant currency; hence, Glatopa sales represented about 3% of the 2Q14 Sandoz sales of $2.33B, or about $70M.

    A sizable portion of 2Q15 Glatopa sales were for inventory stocking, according to NVS.

    ------
    He then assumes that MNTA's take will be $19 million

    Glatopa’s operating margin subject to profit-sharing by MNTA won’t be as high as 80% because of the contractual amount NVS levies for selling expenses (irrespective of how much NVS actually spends on selling) is probably at least 20% on its own.

    Moreover, COGS will initially be fairly high as the fixed costs of production are spread over the relatively small revenue base.

    For 2Q15, I estimate that the Glatopa operating margin will be 55%. Applying this rate to the $70M estimate for sales and dividing by 2 gives about $19M for MNTA’s (pre-tax) take.

    -------
    So, Q2 will be close to break-even if you add the $10 million milestone payment for launch and $2-3 million for Enox revenues

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Amphastar & Teva v/s MNTA / NVS

    by uplinvestor Jul 16, 2015 9:15 PM
    uplinvestor uplinvestor Jul 17, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    Yesterday. That is why MNTA has been strong on good volume.

    Also, Glatopa has already got 10% of Copaxone numbers 3 weeks into launch (almost 1,000 new prescriptions v/s 10,000 for Copaxone for this week)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Section 271(e)(1) Does Not Protect Defendants’ Commercial Use Of
    Momenta’s Patented Invention Because That Use Is Not Reasonably
    Related To The Development And Submission Of Information To FDA

    ---
    This is very good news.

    See MNTA newgroup on Investors Hub for details

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Price Recovery

    by shareholder101 Jul 14, 2015 4:23 PM
    uplinvestor uplinvestor Jul 14, 2015 5:48 PM Flag

    More so now with the RCPT takeout by CELG. CLVS is the next one! Should trade up to $95 by the end of the week

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This should exceed $21 tomorrow if the same pattern after the Q1 earnings holds.

    Whether we cross $22 and head higher into next quarter is the bigger question. I think we should as CAMP reiterated 280-290 million revenues for the year which should put the last two quarters at 75+ million each

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Canaccord said CalAmp is well positioned for long-term growth, citing new customer opportunities, ramping international sales and steady growth of higher-margin recurring revenue sales. Canaccord reiterated its Buy rating and $26 price target on CalAmp shares

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor by uplinvestor Jul 1, 2015 4:45 AM Flag

    CalAmp Corp. Communicates Another Solid Quarter

    www.nasdaq.com/article/calamp-corp-communicates-another-solid-quarter-cm492376?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+nasdaq%2Fsymbols+%28Articles+by+Symbol%29

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Hopefully, we get some upgrades or at least a reiteration of a buy with the mid 20s price targets.

    I see a squeeze back to the 21-22 area in the next few weeks. Still 4.5 million shares short

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Raised full year revenue guidance to 280 to 290 million. Estimate is 282 million.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I'm betting we open above $20.00 tomorrow ! :-)

    by tamaracktpg Jun 30, 2015 3:25 PM
    uplinvestor uplinvestor Jun 30, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    I think so too. After market drop to $17 is predictable. Same thing happened last quarter. After the earnings call it went up to 19. Next day it went to 20+

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Must be a great quarter!

    * Transmode says board of directors is positive to enhanced public offer from Infinera

    * Infinera is now offering Transmode shareholders the choice between tendering their shares for SEK 110 per Transmode share in cash consideration, subject to a maximum total cash consideration in the Offer of SEK 2,133,611,172 or the original Offer consideration in the form of a mix of cash and shares of common stock in Infinera Source text for Eikon: Further company coverage:

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • William Blair conference webcast

    Is this the first time that they have revealed that Microsoft and Google (and Facebook) are big customers of INFN?

    Brad says this between 4:15 and 4:35 of the presentation

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Jun 11, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    It was impressive if you are a short and not if you are a shareholder. From 73 to 67.5 today.

    His "we have not proved anything yet" comment is asinine. There was no need to say it and definitely no need to repeat it for good measure.

    The shorts don't need any more ammunition. He provided it to them.

    He could have done a whole lot better while not antagonizing the FDA.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SWIR

    by bluhorseshu76 Jun 8, 2015 2:23 PM
    uplinvestor uplinvestor Jun 8, 2015 2:28 PM Flag

    Magic potions?

    I am buying near term (June, July, Sep) calls here at 27. Hopefully, that will pay off.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Infinera weakness a buying opportunity, says MKM Partners

    MKM Partners recommends buying Infinera (INFN) on weakness following Ciena's (CIEN) introduction of a competing product with Infinera's CloudXpress. The firm believes the DCI market is large enough for both companies and reiterates its Buy rating and $26 price target on shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ouch! This short is down 250k

    by uplinvestor May 19, 2015 7:59 PM
    uplinvestor uplinvestor May 19, 2015 8:10 PM Flag

    Ha! Really? I fell for it.

    I might lose 20% of my shares as I had $21 covered calls. But can't complain with the $7 move :-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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