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Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation Message Board

uplinvestor 197 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 16, 2014 7:58 PM Member since: Jan 7, 2014
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  • In a report released today, David Nierengarten from Wedbush reiterated an Outperform rating on Stemline (NASDAQ: STML), with a price target of $49. The company’s shares opened today at $15.28.

    Nierengarten noted, ” STML announced initiation of a new Phase II clinical trial for lead candidate SL-401 in four types of advanced high- risk myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs). SL-401 is a targeted therapy directed towards interleukin-3 receptor (IL-3R), which is overexpressed by these MPNs (systemic mastocytosis, advanced symptomatic hypereosinophilic disorder, myelofibrosis, and chronic myelomonocytic leukemia). This trial represents the third Phase II clinical study for SL-401 in 2H:14. Additional clinical trials with SL-401 are currently open in patients with blastic plasmacytoid dendritic cell neoplasm (BPDCN), relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia (r/r AML) and in patients with AML in first complete response (CR) with minimal residual disease (MRD).

    Recall that in a Phase I/II trial of adults with BPDCN, SL-401 monotherapy produced responses in six of seven patients, including five complete “

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Dec 14, 2014 7:25 AM Flag

    Fezziwig,

    I know you know a lot more about HALO than I ever could. However, so far HALO has been a very poor investment and everybody who bought into HALO last year has lost money (including me).

    How are you so optimistic in spite of all that has happened to the stock price? Why do you think this is hated so much by wall street? Even the significant insider buying has been ignored. I thought that purchase at 8.92 would have put a floor to that. Unfortunately, it didn't.

    There was a guy (Siavoche) who thought he knew everything about CLSN and put most of his money into that stock. He had hundreds of posts and 1000s of tweets all on CLSN. It turned out that he was wrong and he lost quite a bit.

    I just hope that you are right about HALO. This stock price decline is making me think that wall street knows something. Maybe it is end of the year tax loss selling and this will turn around soon and they do post good results on the pancreatic cancer trials. I am also hoping that the royalties from the Baxter and Roche products start increasing in a big way.

    Good luck to you, me and the other holders.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: SRPT) received a Buy rating and a $25 price target from WBB analyst Stephen Brozak yesterday

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Effect of weather

    by mcmem Nov 25, 2014 1:52 PM
    uplinvestor uplinvestor Nov 25, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    Right now it is going down with oil. Nat Gas going up 3% has no effect on UPL (or DVN, SWN, RRC, COG) today.

    People waiting to see what happens on Friday at the Opec meeting. If no production cuts, oil could go to $70.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ultra Hedging

    by bob282 Nov 24, 2014 5:19 PM
    uplinvestor uplinvestor Nov 25, 2014 5:16 AM Flag

    The 4.81 price for Q1 and the 3.99 price for Q2 and Q3 is not bad considering NG Futures is at 3.6 - 3.7 right now from May through Sept 2015. They must have established this on the spike to 4.6 last Friday.

    Yet, this hedging of Nat Gas is being done from a position of weakness -- mainly because they didn't hedge Oil when it was over $100. They are doing it so that they satisfy their debt covenants. Ideally, they would have hedged oil at $95-100 (to satisfy their debt covenants) and waited for a better price to hedge Nat Gas.

    However, I am not unhappy that they picked last Friday when the Nat Gas spiked to $4.6 to establish the hedges.

    Now they should establish some oil hedges on any spikes above $85.

    I think UPL dropped to 22.3 because of the sharp drop in Nat Gas yesterday and then moved up to 22.8 probably on the hedging news.

    This removes some risk, I think. The down side is that if we do get a very cold winter and Nat Gas stays over $4 for Q2 and Q3 2015, we get some hedging losses. It looks like almost half the Nat Gas production for Q2 and Q3 have been hedged.

    I think if Oil can go back above $80 and Nat Gas stays above $4.2, UPL looks like a very strong buy at these levels.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    OHAD Buys CNAT

    by uplinvestor Nov 23, 2014 1:53 PM
    uplinvestor uplinvestor Nov 24, 2014 4:16 PM Flag

    Not a hoax. He is an incredible biotech analyst. Google "Ohad Hammer Blog" and read the latest article on CLVS. At the end of the article see his portfolio updates. He bought CLVS, FMI and CNAT last Friday. See his performance.

    I respect him more than any Wall Street analysts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Deutsche Bank initiates Regulus Therapeutics $RGLS with Buy, Target $30, "There's a lot to like; platform, HCV, rare disease in 1 company.

    Data in HCV patients for RG-101 was compelling after 1 dose, more importantly it provided first validation for platform

    We see dramatic LT upside as this early platform story begins to play out

    If both RG-101 and RG-012 were successful, our Regulus FV is $99/share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor by uplinvestor Nov 23, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    Portfolio update

    Following the positive results for rociletinib and rucaparib, we are adding a second position in Clovis and a third position in Foundation Medicine. We are also initiating a position in Conatus (CNAT).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Another $21 million in insider buys reported today. That makes it about $34 million in insider purchases in the last two weeks.

    OpenInsider site; Symbol CJES

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Nov 18, 2014 7:56 PM Flag

    openinsider site and type in the symbol

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Nov 18, 2014 7:55 PM Flag

    At this site

    openinsiderDOTcom/search?q=cjes

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • An additional $6 million reported last Friday by 3 insiders

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Nov 15, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    Not true. This is from a Forbes article on 11/13/2013

    Seth Klarman added to his holdings in Theravance, Inc. by 11.92%. His purchase prices were between $35.82 and $42.64, with an estimated average price of $38.54. The impact to his portfolio due to this purchase was 2.3%. His holdings were 18,510,371 shares as of 09/30/2013. Theravance, Inc. has a market cap of $3.89 billion; its shares were traded at around $35.19 with and P/S ratio of 393.50.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I didn't start checking the daily intraday storage widget until 11/10.

    We have the approximate withdrawals for 11/10 to 11/14:

    11/10: 1.6
    11/11: 4.8
    11/12: 15.6
    11/13: 29
    11/14: 32

    I am assuming that 11/8 and 11/9 had an injection of about 4 bcf. (Last week's 40 bcf injection averages to a little more than 5 bcf/day). 11/8 and 11/9 were colder than any of the days in 11/1 - 11/7 period. So, 4 bcf injection is a fair estimate.

    That brings us to about 75 bcf withdrawal for 11/8 - 11/14. Factoring the additional 12 bcf/week extra production this year, my calculation would be that we get to a 63 to 65 bcf withdrawal for the 11/8 - 11/14 period.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see a greater than 170 bcf withdrawal for the 11/15 - 11/21 period.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reduced holdings by just 579k. I guess that is mildly bullish didn't liquidate their stakes after buying at more than double the price. :-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Nov 14, 2014 4:55 AM Flag

    Needless to say, this is just guesswork by an optimistic long :-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Nov 14, 2014 4:55 AM Flag

    Also sometimes you get the estimated storage injection widget to work sometimes. Every now and then it shows the blue line which is yesterday's withdrawal. This currently shows about 29 bcf for yesterday 11/13.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The widget that shows the US mean temperatures still works.

    At 04:15 EST, the US Mean temp is 36.2F, the East region mean is 33.3F, the West region mean is 49.2F and the Producing mean is 33.5F.

    Last year this corresponded to about 26-30 bcf withdrawal / day. At the peak of the polar vortex, the lowest mean temperature was 28 F which coincided with a approximate 60 bcf withdrawal for that day. (You don't get to 262 bcf withdrawal / week without a few 50+ withdrawal days).

    Now the first 5 days of next week's withdrawal looks like it is going to be lower or around this average temps for the US. So, we are looking at 25*5 = 125 bcf withdrawal for next week if you consider the lower range and just the 5 days. If you add in the remaining two days, you are looking at 150+ bcf. This compared against last year's withdrawal of 17 and the 5 year average withdrawal of 6.

    Also, I am guessing that the withdrawal for the 11/8 - 11/14 period comes in at around 60 bcf which compares against 36 last year and the 5 year average of 10.

    Then assuming we get the same withdrawals close to the 5 year average withdrawals, we end the year at 2870 in storage -- a deficit of 118 compared to last year (2998) and a deficit of 431 compared to the 5 year average. (3301)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 3 different things each of which should have given a boost:

    1. The $6.4 million insider buy - Adrianna Ma (director) bought 340,887 shares at 18.74 on 11/7
    2. Blowout earnings
    3. The possible buyout of Baker Hughes

    Add to that the 3.5 million short interest, we should get to 22-23 pretty quickly.

    Now if Oil can rally back to $80, this should go higher. This looks like a no-brainer here!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Halliburton talking with Baker Hughes

    by kk1123763 Nov 13, 2014 4:01 PM
    uplinvestor uplinvestor Nov 13, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    CJES nas 3.5 million shorts We could see 22 tomorrow on minor short covering. CJES never did sustain the move to $22 after earnings. Tomorrow we could on the possible buyout of Baker Hughes by Halliburton

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

COG
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