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Ultra Petroleum Corp. Message Board

uplinvestor 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 2, 2015 4:21 PM Member since: Jan 7, 2014
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  • Nice!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor by uplinvestor Aug 12, 2015 9:13 AM Flag

    Information here thanks to user Boing X 2 on the MNTA IHub board

    Kaiser has a new standing order:

    Approved standing orders are written instructions issued by medical practitioners, in accordance with the regulations, authorizing pharmacy personnel at pharmacies owned or operated by Kaiser Foundation Health Plan to supply and administer specified medications under circumstances specified in the order.

    Copaxone 20 mg/ml injection will be changed to glatiramer acetate 20 mg/ml injec- tion via standing order. The FDA recently approved Glatopa, a generic or biosimilar version of Copaxone 20 mg/ml.

    Kaiser is pretty big, so we should get a boost from this.

    ------------
    Also, UNH is currently reviewing GLATOPA

    UnitedHealthcare Evaluating Newly Approved MS and Cystic Fibrosis Drugs

    Generic MS Drug Approved
    Glatopa™, the first generic version of Teva’s Copaxone® (glatiramer) is a 20 mg once-daily injectable multiple sclerosis (MS) drug that was launched in the U.S. by Sandoz, a Novartis company, in June. It is the first substitutable generic version of Copaxone approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

    ...

    Review and coverage decisions occur within six months of launch. This minimizes member disruption if the decision is made to permanently exclude a medication, as members have not yet utilized their pharmacy benefit for that medication and may already be using a covered alternative. Additionally, client costs are reduced through the use of lower-cost options.

    The MS drug Glatopa will be excluded at launch for UnitedHealthcare customers with the Exclude at Launch program in place until an appropriate management strategy is determined. For groups without the program, Glatopa will be included in the notification and supply limit program.
    --------------
    Aetna already covers GLATOPA
    ---------------
    I think this will ramp up nicely.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Stockholm, Sweden - 12th August 2015 - Transmode, a global supplier of packet-optical networking solutions, today announced that the Canadian operator Sogetel has deployed Transmode to extend its optical network infrastructure to enhance both reach and performance across Quebec. The new network delivers greater speed and capacity for Sogetel's metro networks in over 20 cities in the province, including Montreal and Quebec City.

    Sogetel is one of the largest independent incumbent telecommunications companies in Canada. It offers a full range of services including telephony, television, internet, cloud services and mobile. When Sogetel decided to make a major infrastructure investment to upgrade its capacity, it turned to Transmode based on the previous excellent working relationship with local partner Sak Data and Transmode.

    The new packet optical system deployed by Sogetel is based on Transmode's TM-Series and significantly increases capacity across the region-wide network. The network was preconfigured at Transmode's headquarters in Stockholm then transported and installed in only two weeks by Transmode's engineers and Sak Data. The installation was achieved without any interruption to ongoing services.

    ...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Aug 4, 2015 8:23 AM Flag

    Perfect guess by Dew Diligence.
    -------------------------
    Total revenues for the second quarter of 2015 were $44.9 million compared to $11.0 million for the same period in 2014.

    Total revenues for the second quarter of 2015 include $19.2 million in product revenue, which represents 50% of contractual profit earned from net sales of Glatopa by Sandoz, net of a deduction of $9.0 million in reimbursement to Sandoz of the Companys share of pre-launch Glatopa-related legal expenses.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Raised guidance

    by uplinvestor Aug 3, 2015 4:40 PM
    uplinvestor uplinvestor Aug 3, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    Non GAAP EPS at midpoint will be 0.30 to 0.32. So, if they get to $170 million, we could have 0.34-0.35 EPS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor by uplinvestor Aug 3, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    Rev guidance for Q2 at $166 (+/- 4) -- i.e. 162 - 170; At midpoint it is higher than the $164.71 consensus estimate.

    After hours at $21

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor by uplinvestor Aug 3, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    Integrated Device Tech (NASDAQ:IDTI):

    FQ1 EPS of $0.31 beats by $0.02.
    Revenue of $160.91M (+27.4% Y/Y) beats by $0.37M.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • These are all the prescription numbers available on GLATOPA to date since launch (from the IMS numbers posted on the MNTA IHUB board) -- Thanks to Pollyvonwog

    Prescription Numbers from 7/24

    TRX: Copax = 10,777 Glatopa = 957
    NRX: Copax = 3,324 Glatopa = 755
    NRX Quantity: Copax = 67,971 Glatopa = 26,198

    Prescription Numbers from 7/17

    TRX: Copax = 10,977 Glatopa = 939
    NrX: Copax = 3,008 Glatop = 794

    NRX Quantity Counts for 6-26, 7-2, 7-10

    7/10: Copaxone = 58,173 Glatopa = 28,056
    7/2: Copaxone = 50,551 Glatopa = 16,075
    6/26: Copaxone = 53,193 Glatopa = 600

    NRX / TRX Counts for 6-26, 7-2, 7-10

    7-10: copax 10,724 glatopa 963
    7-2: copax 9866 glatopa 526
    6-26 copax 11337 glatopa 20

    Note:
    NRX is New Prescriptions or renewals
    TRX is Total Prescriptions.
    NRX Quantity for GLATOPA should be 30 (31) syringes / prescription (One month supply)
    NRX Quantity for Copaxone is a mix of the 20 mg / 40 mg prescriptions -- 30 (31) syringes for the 20 mg prescription and about 13 (14) syringes for the thrice weekly 40 mg

    The TRX counts for GLATOPA should go up to 2,000 and beyond in a couple of weeks as renewals start kicking in.

    My guess is that in a few months we get to about 3,000- 4,000 in TRX for GLATOPA and about 7,000 - 8,000 for Copaxone. Getting a bigger share would then depend on what happens with the patent for the Copaxone 40 mg. If that is invalidated, GLATOPA should get to 50-60% of total sales.

    MNTA should slowly start going up in price as people start realizing that this is going to mean real money coming in. There will always be an overhang with a possible approval for Mylan/NATCO's generic. However, it should not be as big an overhang when people thought that TEVA would get a generic Lovenox approval 3-4 years ago (Amphastar did and Teva didn't then). That is because the profit sharing agreement for generic Copaxone is always 50-50 regardless of how many generics there are.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Jul 21, 2015 9:11 PM Flag

    No, he is not extrapolating a full year's revenue. He clearly states that a majority of this revenue was for inventory stocking. His assumptions / calculations were based on what NVS reported.

    This shouldn't be a $23 stock for too long as more people figure this out. Also, the NATCO revelation that they don't expect to get Copaxone approval for 18-24 months is huge. They are probably running into a lot of issues with their application at the FDA

    ------
    -- A sizable portion of 2Q15 Glatopa sales were for inventory stocking, according to NVS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Mylan's partner NATCO which submitted the Copaxone ANDA is now saying that their generic version of Copaxone won't be approved for at least 18-24 months in a presentation made last month.

    Expanding US Footprint Through a Differentiated Product Pipeline of Niche and Complex Products (Cont’d)

    ...

    - 14 Para IV filings with combined market size of US$11.1bn and 4 big ticket Para III filings

    - Well positioned to unlock its pipeline value in the near term with expected approvals of 4-5 ANDA in 18-24 months including gCopaxone 20mg in US

    This is a huge positive for MNTA. That means they can make a ton of money being the sole generic for Copaxone for two years.

    In addition they will be eligible for the bulk of the additional $120 million in milestone payments.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Jul 21, 2015 4:03 PM Flag

    So, we get to about $41-42 million revenues for Q2.

    $20 million milestone payments
    $19 million GLATOPA revenue
    $2-3 million Enox revenue

    Yahoo consensus estimates are for $23.6 million and a loss of 0.19 cents. So, we could have a positive EPS and $17-18 million beat on revenues

    Looks like a no-brainer buy at 22.5 :-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Jul 21, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    Scratch that. They will be cash flow positive as there were two $10 million milestone payments in Q2:

    • FDA approval: $10M

    • U.S. product launch: $10M

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • There are 7 mentions of GLATOPA in NVS's earnings presentation. But it doesn't include exact GLATOPA revenue numbers.

    Sandoz US sales +23%, driven by Glatopa™, Dermatology

    Note: It would be silly to highlight Sandoz sales being up 23% with very minimal revenues from GLATOPA. So, there must have been significant inventory stocking revenues for GLATOPA.

    -------
    DewDiligence comes up with 70 million using the logic below (on IHub):

    NVS’ Sandoz Division’s YoY growth was high single digits excluding Glatopa, according to NVS’ 2Q15 CC (time 59:35). For the sake of discussion, let’s say “high single digits” is 8%.

    We know that the Sandoz Division overall grew 11% YoY in constant currency; hence, Glatopa sales represented about 3% of the 2Q14 Sandoz sales of $2.33B, or about $70M.

    A sizable portion of 2Q15 Glatopa sales were for inventory stocking, according to NVS.

    ------
    He then assumes that MNTA's take will be $19 million

    Glatopa’s operating margin subject to profit-sharing by MNTA won’t be as high as 80% because of the contractual amount NVS levies for selling expenses (irrespective of how much NVS actually spends on selling) is probably at least 20% on its own.

    Moreover, COGS will initially be fairly high as the fixed costs of production are spread over the relatively small revenue base.

    For 2Q15, I estimate that the Glatopa operating margin will be 55%. Applying this rate to the $70M estimate for sales and dividing by 2 gives about $19M for MNTA’s (pre-tax) take.

    -------
    So, Q2 will be close to break-even if you add the $10 million milestone payment for launch and $2-3 million for Enox revenues

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Amphastar & Teva v/s MNTA / NVS

    by uplinvestor Jul 16, 2015 9:15 PM
    uplinvestor uplinvestor Jul 17, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    Yesterday. That is why MNTA has been strong on good volume.

    Also, Glatopa has already got 10% of Copaxone numbers 3 weeks into launch (almost 1,000 new prescriptions v/s 10,000 for Copaxone for this week)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Section 271(e)(1) Does Not Protect Defendants’ Commercial Use Of
    Momenta’s Patented Invention Because That Use Is Not Reasonably
    Related To The Development And Submission Of Information To FDA

    ---
    This is very good news.

    See MNTA newgroup on Investors Hub for details

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Price Recovery

    by shareholder101 Jul 14, 2015 4:23 PM
    uplinvestor uplinvestor Jul 14, 2015 5:48 PM Flag

    More so now with the RCPT takeout by CELG. CLVS is the next one! Should trade up to $95 by the end of the week

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This should exceed $21 tomorrow if the same pattern after the Q1 earnings holds.

    Whether we cross $22 and head higher into next quarter is the bigger question. I think we should as CAMP reiterated 280-290 million revenues for the year which should put the last two quarters at 75+ million each

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Canaccord said CalAmp is well positioned for long-term growth, citing new customer opportunities, ramping international sales and steady growth of higher-margin recurring revenue sales. Canaccord reiterated its Buy rating and $26 price target on CalAmp shares

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor by uplinvestor Jul 1, 2015 4:45 AM Flag

    CalAmp Corp. Communicates Another Solid Quarter

    www.nasdaq.com/article/calamp-corp-communicates-another-solid-quarter-cm492376?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+nasdaq%2Fsymbols+%28Articles+by+Symbol%29

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Hopefully, we get some upgrades or at least a reiteration of a buy with the mid 20s price targets.

    I see a squeeze back to the 21-22 area in the next few weeks. Still 4.5 million shares short

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

UPL
7.77-0.07(-0.89%)Sep 3 4:01 PMEDT