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Hutchinson Technology Inc. Message Board

uptabdowntab 170 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 29, 2015 7:24 AM Member since: Jul 1, 1998
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  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 29, 2015 7:24 AM Flag

    jay, Xpoint has been discussed, modeled, and evaluated for several years. It is even MORE expensive than current solid state memory. This sort of memory still has two problems that cannot be is many times more expensive than hard drives AND it cannot handle multiple writes/reads AND it cannot save data for longterm (say 5 years+). But whatever.

    STX and WDC destroyed? Cannot happen. They are both too big with too much money. Each of these companies are already the biggest solid state memory users and shippers in the world. They simply buy and integrate whatever tech is best for storage. You should study up a bit on what is actually in a "hard drive".....probably shouldn't even call them that.

  • Reply to

    Shocking Salary and Stock Options Benefits

    by bonesid3 Jul 28, 2015 9:56 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 28, 2015 10:42 PM Flag

    emory, Relax dude. The entire market cap of the company is 28mil. You could own the whole thing and still wouldn't be rich. $300,000?.....nobody cares because it too is nothing.

  • Reply to

    shorts are at it again

    by joey71440 Jul 28, 2015 10:15 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 28, 2015 10:39 PM Flag

    300,000 is the same as zero. It is literally nothing, 1 day's volume.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 28, 2015 6:51 PM Flag

    "..borrow them any.".....Are you 3 years old? Sorry, couldn't resist. You are making the classic mistake of confusing the company with the stock. The stock is obviously ill, the company is doing well. During the last year they generated plenty of excess cash and that was even while they had to fund the OIS development efforts. As OIS revenue ramps quickly during their Q2/3 they will literally be swimming in excess cash and will have cut long term debt in half by late 2016. Why do you say it must be "tuff being long"? It is easy being long a stock that is worth many times the current price and a company on the verge of tripling their revenue and having EPS in the multiple dollars within a foreseeable timeframe. And if I'm wrong? So what, zero impact to my lifestyle though my ego will take a temporary hit.

    I know you are continuing to bash, but I do hope you hold at least some shares so you can participate in the coming multi-year up trend.

    As an aside, it was hilarious to read the psycho basher tout FOUR. I actually wasted 10 minutes of my life to look at that company. Total market cap is $6million and sales are about nothing, maybe $1million. Four is literally worth about .02, not .30.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 28, 2015 1:30 PM Flag

    Today, the 3 analysts covering Hutch estimate $257mil in revenue for FY16. Rarely are estimates this off-base. $257mil isn't even high enough for the HDD susp business. 50mil OIS ships adds another $120mil in revenue. FY16 starts Oct 1st and will exceed $400mil in revenue. Slam dunk. FY17 will be $600 - $800million.

  • doesn't matter whether they report 1 million in revenue or 20 million in revenue. Either way the stock price stays in the current ballpark. Q2 report in early November MIGHT be critical since by then the success or failure of RB4 will be obvious.

    I would argue that nothing matters at this point with respect to the stock price. It will go up when someone(s) wants it to go up and it will be driven by their massive buying.

  • "10 and 20" RB4 on preorder. I asked the manager (actually an adult!) how many and he said they were not supposed to give out that info. So then I bought a $50 gift card and he was willing to narrow it down a bit. I probably should of just given him a $20 bill. Sort of funny.....if you had been there. Cheers.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 27, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    That's awesome.....Wow....$500mil in earnings implies revenue of $7 or $8 Billion. EPS will be $17, put a PE of 20 on that and share price should hit $340. Cool, that's a 1000 bagger from here! And I thought I was an optimist.

  • Reply to


    by bargainhunter880 Jul 25, 2015 9:25 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 26, 2015 8:32 PM Flag

    Just guessing of course.....over $3 by 10am Friday and over $10 by Christmas. Sunny days ahead. Cheers.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 26, 2015 10:20 AM Flag

    emory cannot attend the annual meeting. Only MCZ shareholders are allowed entry. emory sold all his shares when the stock first dipped to 36/37 level. About the only time I ever believed him was when he said he was out.

  • Reply to

    MCZ @ Evo 2015

    by tdog7946 Jul 24, 2015 10:56 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 24, 2015 5:28 PM Flag

    Maybe the route the X-games took/are taking? From nothing to Olympics and sponsorships.

  • Reply to

    MCZ @ Evo 2015

    by tdog7946 Jul 24, 2015 10:56 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 24, 2015 5:26 PM Flag

    tdog7946.....Great story and well-told! Most here (like me) probably did miss it since we are passionate investors/traders and not gamers.

    I do have a question for you, since you seem very familiar with this sort of stuff.....Do you think Mad Catz and their competitors have a chance to turn the super hi end players into "Nascar-like" stars? I just keep thinking that many years ago (1980s), there were lots of car races that no one really cared about and tv ratings stunk, then Nascar got the bright idea to turn their drivers into "NFL/NBA-style" stars. It worked great, can MAd Catz do the same?

    Thanks for any insight.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 24, 2015 9:16 AM Flag

    tracant, It IS brutally simple (though I suppose that assumes some basic level of competence and the ability to read, write, think, and act) and only requires ownership of 1 share. You are correct that deadlines are often early. That single share may need to be registered in your name as well. My point is that it requires no money, no big pile of shares, just some effort, and a bit of time.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 23, 2015 6:31 PM Flag

    emory, All it takes to get something on the ballot for ALL shareholders to vote on is to own a single (1) share of MCZ. IF you own a single share and feel as strongly as you state you do, then why haven't you submitted the required request to put it on the ballot? It will cost you about $1.50 (certified US Mail) and maybe an hour to fill out the submittal form. You still have time for this year's ballot.

    And you do not own 400,000 shares. You were the guy who sold them all at 35.7 cents.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 23, 2015 12:08 PM Flag

    I have never traveled.
    I am very emotional.
    Everything posted on this board impacts the stock.
    CEO is worth $4mil per year.
    I am smarter than you, bigger than you, prettier than you, richer than you.
    I am Not arrogant, simply humble.

    Dude, Lighten up already. You are the one doing the continuous softbashing day after day. I was just trying to encourage you to take break. I have never been to Europe but do travel quite a bit in China, Japan, Singapore. I am about the most un-emotional person ever especially with respect to stocks, though I admit that I sometimes like to "play" on these boards when I am bored. Nothing posted on these boards matters, I am with you there (though I don't think you believe that yourself since you soft-bash). Arrogant isn't the right word although I understand how you get that from some of my posting. I like to tease and incite at weakness. Ok, I am now off to the away, that way I'll have something to read tonight.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 23, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    Your evolution from a somewhat interesting poster into a delusional wack-job nutcase over the last year or two has been interesting. Given your obvious hate for the CEO, why do you even follow the company or buy/sell the stock? Seems sort of silly given your stated beliefs. Why not focus on a company and stock and CEO that you believe in and trust? No need to answer, we all know why you are here.

    By the way, it is clear, crystal clear that the CEO is not overpaid, he is underpaid. Should be making $2 or $3mil per year. Not the $600k fast food wages.

    Chess? Like I said.....nutcase.


  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 22, 2015 10:35 PM Flag

    dude....Mad Catz is a cash generating machine with or without RB4. They have reduced debt from $44million to $3million in only a few years. Even if RB4 were to fail the company will still be profitable for this FY, that is bottom line GAAP EPS profitability. Company was also profitable in the just completed FY, GAAP EPS of 6 or 7 cents!

    But ignore all that, who cares, doesn't matter, disagree with the numbers, who cares, doesn't matter.

    All you have to do is look at the 20 year stock chart. Anyone buying shares at this sort of price is going to make money, likely 400% to 2000% within 6 - 18 months. If the stock market proves two things over and over again it is these: "History repeats" (always true)........and "This time is different" is ALWAYS wrong.

    So with MCZ it is brutally simple. Buy the stock now and sell it when it is much higher.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 21, 2015 7:51 PM Flag

    I'll take a stab at that as there are many possibilities.....

    1. The $45mil they have avail is more than enough for $145mil in a single quarter as long as inventory turns are enough.
    2. The contract manufacturer/assembler might simply agree to build and ship based on Mad Catz history, reputation, and the fact they always pay their bills. Even the payment terms might naturally span enough time (60 or 90 days?) to make all of this irrelevant.
    3. Likely some combination of #1 and #2. Take some money upfront, and that together with the strength of preorders is enough for the builder to agree to accept the balance later.
    4. How am I able to buy an apartment complex for 10% down? On my good looks? Certainly not. Simply because the bank trusts me enough and has studied the market enough to know I and it is a good investment. Close in August and I have a commercial loan with a rate of 4.40% locked for 7 years! Point is....make a strong case and money is available.

    And there are many more possibilities.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 21, 2015 5:55 PM Flag forgot to switch your id back to emoryhowie.

    A couple points......$600k is nothing for a CEO salary......Mad Catz is in a tough business and they continue to survive and occasionally knock the ball out of the park......Trailing PE is 7 and this year PE is sub 2, PS is .2 or some crazy number......balance sheet is robust.....ya can't blame the CEO for how the buyers/sellers of the stock value the company.

    IF you really want to feel better about the current valuation and daily trading, take a look at the historical prices and daily volumes and closes from about July 1, 2010 to Nov 30, 2010. IT LOOKS IDENTICAL TO WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY! Cheers bones....err I mean emory. Dude.

  • Reply to

    1.33 fresh NEW LOWS...

    by svenkarls1 Jul 20, 2015 2:14 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 20, 2015 6:52 PM Flag

    bh, I do give you bonus points for creativity, imagination, and humor. Well done. My favorite was was "Penn has no idea where to make OIS in volume." Why is it even a concern? Surely OIS is a failure so no need to make any. My second favorite was your advice to those short. Similar problem, no one is short HTCH shares. Short interest is well below 1mil shares.

    By the way, my guess on Hutch OIS capacity right now is 4million per week and it is easily doubled. There are zero concerns for FY16 in terms of producing the "tens of millions" that Penn promised during the cc Q&A. Maybe they will be capacity constrained in FY17.

1.82+0.37(+25.52%)Jul 31 4:00 PMEDT