All three now have a guesstimate for FY16 starting Oct 1st. All 3 numbers look like garbage to me, but they have been far more correct than I for the last 18 months. Just seems to me they don't have any idea how to factor in OIS (I can understand this) and still don't really believe Hutch susp volumes will continue to rise. Whatever.
I did a little more reading last eve and there is no doubt that InFocus is the Foxconn brand. I should really say THE Foxconn brand. This thing could roll out far faster and more seamlessly than anyone could imagine.
You are going to have to tell us your conclusions based on your analysis. Back when I worked for Seagate, the execs would fire you if you sent out data or analysis without stating your conclusion or telling the reader what it meant. I sure like the way these numbers are looking along with your previous post on the relative rankings of Tritton vs Turtle Beach.
At this point I am getting real close to selling all my other stocks and dividing the money evenly between MCZ, HTCH, and VTSI.
Somewhere I read that "InFocus" is the Foxconn smartphone brand. Do you know if that is true? If not, what company owns the InFocus brand?
I'm with you hieronymous, I worry more about the strong dollar than the port congestion. The strong dollar caught many of the big blue chip companies by surprise so I doubt Mad Catz did anything to hedge against it....(nor should they hedge in my opinion since it is expensive and they are not that smart). The port congestion has happened before and was somewhat predictable. They have managed through it before. Also, many of Mad Catz products are small and lightweight and could be shipped via air if they had to, at least a few strategic shipments wouldn't hurt too much. This is when you really wished their packaging was smaller. But again, I'm just winging it here.
At least the good thing at this point is no one makes any money unless the stock goes up, therefore it probably will be orchestrated in that direction as well. I've never seen a stock with this low a number of shares shorted.
To me it seems unlikely to be flipper. The math seems out of whack......100,000 shares at a 2 cent delta is only $2000 and that is without multiple commissions and over several days and buying at bid, selling at ask. Just seems way too difficult and would have to pull it off perfectly to make any money. If someone is into doing that sort of thing, why wouldn't they focus on a great big liquid stock with tons of volume?
micro, You are way better at this sort of thing than me and I like how you came up with the Tritton estimate. I just think if the Mad Catz category did 7.6 in Q2 that it has to be way higher than that in Q3. Saitek might also surprise with a much bigger number. "Other" will be 3 or 4 million....just gut feel, sortof.
I have to give you credit for stating your Q3 revenue and earnings guess in writing. I still believe Q4 will come in flat with Q3 and that each will be about 40million and +5 cents. Upcoming FY16 starting April 1st will be well over $150million with EPS of 18 cents....just guesses.
Try to learn to read. The impact is a total of $507,000 dollars. Not millions, not billions, about nothing. And they are also divesting of all fossil fuels including nat gas and oil.
Tommie's post on the previous thread inspired me to take a look at smartphone market share. IDC published these numbers for the latest reported quarter:
50% All Others
This is a really good thing as far as Hutch is concerned. This is a much more fragmented market than I had thought. Makes it easy for a newcomer to get their tentacles into the game. Of the above, Samsung and Apple have been losing share and Xiami, Lenovo, and LG have been gaining.
Perhaps a more important question for Hutch is "who is building all the phones" for these various companies since most are simply a design/spec house and brand. Gotta believe Foxconn is #1 but I don't really know, maybe later today will do some googling.
It doesn't matter how many accounts you use. If you are the owner of 1 million shares in 1 account or the owner of 1 million shares with 200,000 in 5 different accounts it is all the same in the eyes of the SEC. Their rules are crystal clear on this point.
You're buying "a few million shares"? Don't forget to file the required SEC form when you go over 5% ownership. 5% of outstanding shares is 718,000. So if you and Frank are each buying 1.5 million shares then you will each be 10.4% owners. Cheers.
Your "real question" IS the correct question. We agree on that. The vast majority of my money is in other places (Land, Real Estate, Cash, Other individual stocks). If I was 90% certain ANR would not declare BK I would buy more shares. Risk is losing about 90% maybe overnight, Reward is easily 800% within 1 to 5 years. Sure, not a place for all your money, but maybe some.
I am long ANR and am considering buying more, a lot more.
How likely is it they will take the easy way out and declare bankruptcy? The share price says it is coming, the bond prices say it might be coming.
Whether or not they declare bankruptcy the company and its employees and customers will be fine. The company will keep on running and mining and shipping. They would raise cash with a big IPO in a couple years.
Yes, I know they have a $14 tangible book value. Yes, I know they have saleable assets greater than their debts. But, so did Kodak (over 1.5Billion overseas before they went BK and killed the common shareholders) and so did Washington Mutual before the government swept in and stole the company.
I keep thinking that if the BOD and CEO cared about the common shareholders they would simply come out and say point blank that they will not be declaring bankruptcy. They could do the same by making open market buys of millions of shares. Lots of things they could do to help shareholders....but they don't.
Rip on me if you wish but if you have some sort of opinion, let er fly.
I respectfully disagree about the shelf since that would suggest CEO/CFO involvement.
Also, another strike against the theory is that the same sort of spikes occurred well before the last big run to 2.30. Just like now, big spikes, followed by dead volume, and then.....boom UP UP UP.
I throw stuff out there but I really don't have a clue.
Lots of catalysts ahead....late March Q4 report.....mid-May Q1 report....perhaps an uplist announcement to an OTC exchange.....early May shareholder meeting....contract wins......good times ahead