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Hutchinson Technology Inc. Message Board

uptabdowntab 400 posts  |  Last Activity: 18 hours ago Member since: Jul 1, 1998
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  • All three now have a guesstimate for FY16 starting Oct 1st. All 3 numbers look like garbage to me, but they have been far more correct than I for the last 18 months. Just seems to me they don't have any idea how to factor in OIS (I can understand this) and still don't really believe Hutch susp volumes will continue to rise. Whatever.

  • Reply to

    Free lunch or what?

    by uptabdowntab Jan 29, 2015 2:01 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Feb 1, 2015 8:30 AM Flag

    I did a little more reading last eve and there is no doubt that InFocus is the Foxconn brand. I should really say THE Foxconn brand. This thing could roll out far faster and more seamlessly than anyone could imagine.

  • Reply to

    Dot got me on a review analysis kick...

    by microcaptrader Jan 31, 2015 8:13 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 31, 2015 8:53 PM Flag

    You are going to have to tell us your conclusions based on your analysis. Back when I worked for Seagate, the execs would fire you if you sent out data or analysis without stating your conclusion or telling the reader what it meant. I sure like the way these numbers are looking along with your previous post on the relative rankings of Tritton vs Turtle Beach.

    At this point I am getting real close to selling all my other stocks and dividing the money evenly between MCZ, HTCH, and VTSI.

  • Reply to

    Free lunch or what?

    by uptabdowntab Jan 29, 2015 2:01 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 30, 2015 5:36 PM Flag

    Somewhere I read that "InFocus" is the Foxconn smartphone brand. Do you know if that is true? If not, what company owns the InFocus brand?

  • Reply to

    California port congestion...

    by hopeful200 Jan 30, 2015 4:33 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 30, 2015 4:49 PM Flag

    I'm with you hieronymous, I worry more about the strong dollar than the port congestion. The strong dollar caught many of the big blue chip companies by surprise so I doubt Mad Catz did anything to hedge against it....(nor should they hedge in my opinion since it is expensive and they are not that smart). The port congestion has happened before and was somewhat predictable. They have managed through it before. Also, many of Mad Catz products are small and lightweight and could be shipped via air if they had to, at least a few strategic shipments wouldn't hurt too much. This is when you really wished their packaging was smaller. But again, I'm just winging it here.

  • Less than 4mil shares today! Short interest just increased to 18 days even though the number of shorted shares dropped a bit.

  • Reply to

    Who is the seller ?

    by xwallstcfo Jan 30, 2015 12:08 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 30, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    At least the good thing at this point is no one makes any money unless the stock goes up, therefore it probably will be orchestrated in that direction as well. I've never seen a stock with this low a number of shares shorted.

  • Reply to

    Who is the seller ?

    by xwallstcfo Jan 30, 2015 12:08 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 30, 2015 2:11 PM Flag

    To me it seems unlikely to be flipper. The math seems out of whack......100,000 shares at a 2 cent delta is only $2000 and that is without multiple commissions and over several days and buying at bid, selling at ask. Just seems way too difficult and would have to pull it off perfectly to make any money. If someone is into doing that sort of thing, why wouldn't they focus on a great big liquid stock with tons of volume?

  • Reply to

    estimated revenues for third quarter

    by meifud Jan 30, 2015 9:49 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 30, 2015 1:58 PM Flag

    micro, You are way better at this sort of thing than me and I like how you came up with the Tritton estimate. I just think if the Mad Catz category did 7.6 in Q2 that it has to be way higher than that in Q3. Saitek might also surprise with a much bigger number. "Other" will be 3 or 4 million....just gut feel, sortof.

  • Reply to

    estimated revenues for third quarter

    by meifud Jan 30, 2015 9:49 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 30, 2015 10:09 AM Flag

    I have to give you credit for stating your Q3 revenue and earnings guess in writing. I still believe Q4 will come in flat with Q3 and that each will be about 40million and +5 cents. Upcoming FY16 starting April 1st will be well over $150million with EPS of 18 cents....just guesses.

  • Reply to

    Divesting. Sold 500M ... 1/4 of cap of big 3.

    by mikeknox85 Jan 30, 2015 9:46 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 30, 2015 9:54 AM Flag

    Try to learn to read. The impact is a total of $507,000 dollars. Not millions, not billions, about nothing. And they are also divesting of all fossil fuels including nat gas and oil.

  • Tommie's post on the previous thread inspired me to take a look at smartphone market share. IDC published these numbers for the latest reported quarter:
    24% Samsung
    12% Apple
    5% Xiaomi
    5% Lenovo
    5% LG
    50% All Others

    This is a really good thing as far as Hutch is concerned. This is a much more fragmented market than I had thought. Makes it easy for a newcomer to get their tentacles into the game. Of the above, Samsung and Apple have been losing share and Xiami, Lenovo, and LG have been gaining.

    Perhaps a more important question for Hutch is "who is building all the phones" for these various companies since most are simply a design/spec house and brand. Gotta believe Foxconn is #1 but I don't really know, maybe later today will do some googling.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 29, 2015 11:12 PM Flag

    It doesn't matter how many accounts you use. If you are the owner of 1 million shares in 1 account or the owner of 1 million shares with 200,000 in 5 different accounts it is all the same in the eyes of the SEC. Their rules are crystal clear on this point.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 29, 2015 10:01 PM Flag

    You're buying "a few million shares"? Don't forget to file the required SEC form when you go over 5% ownership. 5% of outstanding shares is 718,000. So if you and Frank are each buying 1.5 million shares then you will each be 10.4% owners. Cheers.

  • Reply to

    Free lunch or what?

    by uptabdowntab Jan 29, 2015 2:01 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 29, 2015 8:43 PM Flag

    Very helpful. Thank you for taking the time to write all that.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 29, 2015 5:01 PM Flag

    Your "real question" IS the correct question. We agree on that. The vast majority of my money is in other places (Land, Real Estate, Cash, Other individual stocks). If I was 90% certain ANR would not declare BK I would buy more shares. Risk is losing about 90% maybe overnight, Reward is easily 800% within 1 to 5 years. Sure, not a place for all your money, but maybe some.

  • Reply to

    Free lunch or what?

    by uptabdowntab Jan 29, 2015 2:01 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 29, 2015 4:37 PM Flag

    Thanks, I think? You lost me on your last sentence. cringe? inane babbling? bh880?

  • I am long ANR and am considering buying more, a lot more.

    How likely is it they will take the easy way out and declare bankruptcy? The share price says it is coming, the bond prices say it might be coming.

    Whether or not they declare bankruptcy the company and its employees and customers will be fine. The company will keep on running and mining and shipping. They would raise cash with a big IPO in a couple years.

    Yes, I know they have a $14 tangible book value. Yes, I know they have saleable assets greater than their debts. But, so did Kodak (over 1.5Billion overseas before they went BK and killed the common shareholders) and so did Washington Mutual before the government swept in and stole the company.

    I keep thinking that if the BOD and CEO cared about the common shareholders they would simply come out and say point blank that they will not be declaring bankruptcy. They could do the same by making open market buys of millions of shares. Lots of things they could do to help shareholders....but they don't.

    Rip on me if you wish but if you have some sort of opinion, let er fly.

  • Reply to

    Stupid people and their money are

    by uptabdowntab Jan 29, 2015 3:07 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 29, 2015 3:50 PM Flag

    I respectfully disagree about the shelf since that would suggest CEO/CFO involvement.

    Also, another strike against the theory is that the same sort of spikes occurred well before the last big run to 2.30. Just like now, big spikes, followed by dead volume, and then.....boom UP UP UP.

    I throw stuff out there but I really don't have a clue.

  • Reply to

    VTSI is a winner...

    by hopeful200 Jan 29, 2015 2:15 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 29, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    Lots of catalysts ahead....late March Q4 report.....mid-May Q1 report....perhaps an uplist announcement to an OTC exchange.....early May shareholder meeting....contract wins......good times ahead

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