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Hutchinson Technology Inc. Message Board

uptabdowntab 313 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 minutes ago Member since: Jul 1, 1998
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  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Apr 1, 2014 2:33 PM Flag

    rfmd, Not even you can be as stupid as your own post. EVERYTHING about the $20mil line of credit is a good thing. First, they replace their current minimal debt with far better terms which saves them money. Second, they no longer have ANY concerns about liquidity for the next couple years which is more than long enough to become very cash flow positive. Third, the line of credit is from a credible source at favorable terms and there is zero doubt they did due diligence. Fourth, the only credible concern about the company has now been put to rest, their current assets had been about on par with current liabilities which meant they were nearing a liquidity problem. That concern is now gone.

    The last thing I will say is that I would guess you are going to see massive insider buying starting later this week or early next week after two trading days from today's PR.

    The very last thing I will say is that the current share price is a gift, look where all the volume was today, yes, above 1.15. Adding more. Cheers.

  • Reply to

    The balance sheet here is compelling...

    by microcaptrader Apr 1, 2014 11:37 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Apr 1, 2014 12:16 PM Flag

    ....I'm really not stalking you today.....just cruising through the boards as I watch frozen precip fall from the sky.

    I think it is important to keep in mind who will be most aware, and in position to take advantage, of any big changes in the world of storage. The answer is Seagate and WDC and a handful of suppliers like Hutch. For example, who are two of the biggest consumers and users of solid state memory? Seagate and WDC in their hybrid drives. Hutch gets involved in drive programs from the very start of development, perhaps 9 months before the first sample parts are required and about 18-24 months before volume shipments. Given the vibrant pipeline today, Hutch's future is assured for at least the next 7+years (and that's been the case for a couple three decades). The other thing is that the world of HDD is the most incestuous industry in the world with respect to employees....meaning many in the industry have strong ties to every company because they've worked for all of them at one time or another. So, not a chance that Hutch could be "surprised" by a big change in the world of storage. Even if a big change was "in process" Hutch would have time to position themselves to take advantage even if that meant acquisition or partnering or whatever.

    Hutch has also done a good job of adding value to their product. Look at what they are shipping today verses 5 years ago, 10 years ago, etc. No comparison in terms of technology, features, performance....and at a lower price! Lower price isn't all bad since the only form of storage that survives big is the cheapest.

    Sorry this turned into a bit (no pun intended) of a ramble.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Apr 1, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    You beat me to it....Welcome to FY2015! One year from now we might be looking back on a year that saw 30% revenue growth, EPS of 17cents, Elimination of all debt, and a stock price of $2 and rising on improving prospects and a great product lineup.....and that's no April fool. Cheers.

  • Reply to

    closing near high of day...thats a first

    by reeversma Mar 31, 2014 3:58 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Mar 31, 2014 4:41 PM Flag

    Good eye reeversma. Today was different. The continued strength throughout the afternoon was refreshing. A bit of followthrough tomorrow and it could be a pretty straight shot to $2+ within days and, like you said, a 3-5bagger in a mere 24 months-ish.

    Although, all that said, today was the first day in a couple weeks that there was across the board strength in many microcaps. But the difference with INVE (compared to many others) was the great volume. Bodes well, volume precedes price. Cheers all.

  • Reply to

    Extremely Undervalued

    by bigdataplayer Mar 31, 2014 2:12 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Mar 31, 2014 4:36 PM Flag

    Great post. The profitability level is what first attracted me here a few years ago. They have made all the right moves with respect to running the business; audited numbers, conservative revenue recognition, careful with expenses, keeping product fresh and improving, growing the top line, etc. As you said, at some point someone with a little (and it doesn't take much) money is going to step in and try to buy the company. I doubt if that is the outcome Ferris and Miller want right now but unless they figure out how to get the market cap much higher they may not have a choice. Even if they rebuff an offer, all it would take is a PR from the potential buyer and the stock doubles overnight.

    The key for the next few quarters is consistent profitable performance and some top line growth. Think about it, they generated about a net 2mil in cash in 2013. 2014 should be even better and you string together a couple three years of that sort of performance and suddenly the book value is going to grow fast and it will get some attention. Patience.

    I hope someone here can get to the May 1st shareholder meeting and push a bit with some good questions.

  • Reply to

    Don't trust LongtimeFollower

    by mrgreengreen Mar 30, 2014 5:41 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Mar 31, 2014 12:13 PM Flag

    Proceed carefully to the nearest insane asylum and check yourself in.

  • for everyone involved is take 1mil of their 2.4 and buyback and retire about 10mil shares. They need to start DECREASING the total outstanding shares. They MUST do this.

  • AND they mentioned shareholder value a couple times, they might even know we exist! Total rev of $9.8mil for the year and extremely profitable, no debt, lots of cash. Seems to me the stock should move up quickly to the 10-12 cent level. It is also obvious they are getting close to uplisting the company and its stock. Cheers.

    Now they just need to grow up and have a cc and take questions.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Mar 30, 2014 8:35 PM Flag

    Hi ema8k, I love thinking about the sort of question you asked. I go through that sort of process all the time with my holdings and potential holdings and deployment of cash.

    Of the four options, I would go with #3, NTWK.

    I personally have far more money in HTCH than NTWK but because you said "at these levels" and put an end date of 2014, I had to vote for NTWK. While I am 100% certain that HTCH sees $15, it will likely take a year to 18 months and given the last two weeks, it could certainly go down to 2.6 or even 2.0 before this game ends about the 3rd week of April (when they report Q2). I was also swayed to #3 because it would be a new position for you. A little diversity is sometimes a good thing, keeps life interesting.

    I would be scared to death of either COCO (I no longer own because I liked some others better...htch, mcz, aci, anr, inve, ntwk) or ANR but only because of your defined 2014 timeframe. ANR is a sure thing to go much higher (multiples) but not sure when.

    If you like the sector in which COCO plays, take a good look at NAUH. Seems better run and pays a nice dividend. I own some for the long term. Just a thought.

    Have a good evening.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Mar 28, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    no offense, but you must have a really small wee wee

  • Reply to

    Sold some today

    by happytradersometimes Mar 27, 2014 11:51 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Mar 28, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    kc, I know your question wasn't addressed to me, but here's my take....what is happening with HTCH is no different than what is happening with MEA, LOJN, EMMS, SPDC, NTWK, LTRX, BLIN, VIDE, ....and many many other microcap stocks. There are sooooo many down 20 - 40% or more in the last month or two that it is just crazy. All the market strength is in the big stuff and div stuff. HTCH decline is similar, low volume, relentless, and depressing. But now is the time to buy more. They have a crystal clear path and momentum to increase the top line by 50% over the next 1 - 2 years and become extremely profitable. And remember, never ever confuse the stock with the company.

  • Reply to

    Question on yesterday's action

    by chasrx Mar 27, 2014 6:42 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Mar 27, 2014 10:00 PM Flag

    What's strange about it? Someone simply wanted a whole bunch of shares and was willing to pay whatever it took to get them. Stock simply drifted down on low volume when the buyer went away. This has been going on for a couple months with this stock. All the big volume is on the buy side and it is clear, crystal clear, that INVE is headed much higher.

  • Reply to

    hahahhahahaha

    by joey71440 Mar 27, 2014 3:45 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Mar 27, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    ...you do know there really aren't any shorts. less than 150k shares are shorted.

  • Reply to

    Last Chance to Get in before Earnings

    by bigdataplayer Mar 27, 2014 1:41 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Mar 27, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    Thank you! I did a little googling after I asked the question, interesting. It would make for some good cc questions.....if only they had a cc and took questions. They need to grow up in several respects.

  • Reply to

    Last Chance to Get in before Earnings

    by bigdataplayer Mar 27, 2014 1:41 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Mar 27, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    Though your question wasn't directed to me, I'll bite on the EST II.....What is EST II? Thank you.

    By the way, I'm not sure I've ever seen VTSI trade so "nicely" in anticipation (usually their isn't any anticipation) of an earnings report. Cheers All.

  • Reply to

    OT: Stock Contest - Week 9

    by bottomsupinvestor Mar 22, 2014 8:23 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Mar 27, 2014 1:49 PM Flag

    Another thought.....Rolling the dice.....but they are loaded dice (in our favor I believe).....buy some VTSI today at 7.5 cents or less. They will release their Q4 and YE results either tomorrow morning or Monday morning. I expect good results and the stock to be at 10cents (with some volume) relatively quickly, maybe hours, maybe several days.....and maybe it doesn't stop at 10 cents since it is worth much more.

  • Reply to

    OT: Stock Contest - Week 9

    by bottomsupinvestor Mar 22, 2014 8:23 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Mar 27, 2014 1:40 PM Flag

    Hi bodybag, Yes, I even bought more earlier today at 1.04. I loved their recent cc and trading volume and price action. It could go sky high once the powers that be (whoever they are) let it go.

  • Reply to

    4th quarter report??

    by goldrush28 Feb 18, 2014 2:54 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Mar 24, 2014 9:39 PM Flag

    You may very well be correct about Friday morning. I doubt if anyone will be paying much attention no matter what the results. If great, it will take a few days to sink in and the stock to react. Likewise if bad.

    I agree with your sentiments regarding Miller. I can't state in writing what I really think of him or why Ferris has hired him. I have had the same experience with regard to my emails and letters and suggestions to each of them. Before Miller, Ferris would reply with something reasonable. Miller, what a .

    I sort of doubt the stock price, whether 5 cents or 50 cents makes a difference for sales. That said, I do think a $5 stock price would help sales since it would improve company credibility. But the only way it gets that high is a reverse split. My hope is they get the stock to 25 cents and then go for a "1 for 20" reverse split to get it to $5. But now I'm dreamin again.

  • Reply to

    Buying aggressively today.

    by longtimefollower Mar 14, 2014 11:50 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Mar 24, 2014 2:07 PM Flag

    Hi nip, I've "discovered"/traded a number of stocks that you recommended with a decent amount of success. You do have a good eye for undervalued stocks and a good feel for when they will move. I also agree with you in that HTCH could go lower, maybe 2.90 like today, maybe 2.60 like 2013 Jan/feb/Mar/Apr, maybe even 1.70 (though I doubt it) but the thing is, there is no good reason for it to go lower other than the "look" of the chart and a mini-herd mentality. There is no doubt that LTF and Me and Many Others would load the boat even heavier if HTCH were to go significantly lower. The big picture and medium term (May) and longer term (late 2014, 2015, 2016) are all strongly in Hutch's favor. Dig into the last 6 quarters of Hutch performance, it is happening before our very eyes. If you believe what the industry and management is telling you , you would be a buyer. If not, then sure, no reason to buy now. I think May could be a repeat of 2013 but the difference will come later when it doesn't stop at 6 or 7 or 8 or 10 or 12. Cheers.

  • Reply to

    I don't.....

    by sappyso Mar 21, 2014 7:49 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Mar 22, 2014 10:53 PM Flag

    Not the easiest question to answer. I have about 4 or 5 big long term dividend sort of stocks.....mrk, pfe, so, gxp. But I will sometimes swap them for other big dividend stocks if they rise a bit too fast. Then, the ones I consider shorter term I am down to about 7 or 8.....htch, mcz, inve, vtsi, ntwk, vide, aci, anr. I recently sold lojn but will probably re-enter, likewise with ltrx. Some of these positions are much larger than others.

    What I consider the PERFECT portfolio for the upcoming 12 months is equal amounts of: HTCH, MCZ, INVE, ACI......and maybe NTWK.

HTCH
2.77Apr 15 4:00 PMEDT

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