IF you really want the answer to your question, go back and study the chart from Feb 2009 through Feb 2010, THE EXACT SAME THING happened 4 times. Single day spikes of 3 to 7mil shares, out of the blue, unexpected, never really changed the share price! (Sure, it would spike up a nickel or dime that one day and be back down within a few days....JUST LIKE THIS TIME) No one could tell me anything then and apparently the mystery still hasn't been solved....and the same person(s) firm(s) are again playing the game.
All of which means you can say "Hello" to $2 within a year.
Jan 31 to Feb 14 by 2.5mil shares......and that is THE ONLY reason ACI went down to 3.90.....it was DRIVEN down. It will be up to the company to deliver the results (rising revenue, rising profits, decreasing debt) to rid us of the short's grip and flippers grip. Still a great time to buy and build a large position.
Hi dannylct, You obviously have the discipline and experience to be successful and you obviously are. It helps to know other investors like yourself and micro and hopeful and many others are on board (at least to some extent) with MCZ.
Good thread to start. In the last few days I've bought more NTWK and ACI. I've also been adding LOJN but that doesn't fit the undervalued definition based on past 12 months, next 12 months yes though. A couple other rather interesting ones I own are NAUH and DRAD primarily due to the dividends. SO is also a heck of a good deal for many reasons.
One I've mentioned before that I would be adding to if I didn't already have a ton is VTSI. PS is sub-1. PE is sub-10. Top line is growing and I believe the year end earnings report coming out in late March might (25% chance) propel the stock much higher. To clarify, I am relatively certain the report will be good, just not sure anyone will care.
HTCH is below BV, low PS, but no EPS yet. I still say it has over $1 in EPS within a year....though all the analysts disagree and it has taken about 6 months longer than I thought it might. It will be a $12 stock at some point within 18 months.
Hi micro, I usually agree with most of what you say, but in this case I think you are wrong. Charts are very important and patterns do repeat ...which is why they are patterns. And in the case of MCZ they repeat for very good and rational reasons. MCZ is in a competitive nasty business with a ton of competitors which is why I usually shy well away from tech stocks. MCZ has soared and crashed and soared and crashed multiple times for all the right reasons, hope, revenue growth, profits, revenue plummets, losses, debt, etc. It has very little to do with MCZ but everything to do with the industry in which they play. It is simply not possible for a small company to have hit after hit after hit, just not gonna happen. Every once in awhile they do hit a homerun and that is why the stock ramps up hard. It is NOT going to be any different this time. They are going to deliver a solid Q4 on par with last year but better cash generation and better EPS. Then they are going to beat in Q1 and really beat in Q2 and there will be several reasons why Q3 will be spectacular and the stock is going to ramp up hard and fast peaking in early 2015.....but then it will again come back to Earth because they are too small to sustain anything in this industry. And the pattern repeats.
Ask yourself, would you be buying shares now (or holding what you have) if the previous chart history didn't show multiple peaks that were 3 - 5X the current price? Not a chance and neither would I. Sure there are a ton of other tangible good fundamental reasons to buy it but if the previous history was dead, then you would have to be a fool to buy it. Given the chart history and all else, you would have to be a fool not to buy it now.
The other "kicker" for me is that it seems likely Mad Catz gets bought by a bigger fish. Could happen in the next few months at 75 cents or next year at $2.50....or not.
"That's why I left for plug!"......It sure doesn't seem like you left, but I wish you would. Cheers.
It's part of the reason I'm a 40-something retiree.....and I need another hit from the old reliable.
where the volume was huge, many millions of shares, similar to yesterday. Whoever bought then, I would guess, is who bought yesterday. They are simply getting in position for the huge move that is coming later this year or 2015. If the pattern holds, stock should trade sideways on low volume and we see two or three similar spikes over the next 6 or 8 months.......then up up and away. History almost always repeats.
Hi tdm, $8 is probably even too low for next 6 months, now I'm thinking over $10. My main rationale is that they are now profitably growing the top line with revenue growth that seems to be accelerating and seems to be sustainable for the foreseeable future. I also believe they are being very conservative with the 8-10% revenue growth guidance. They made the statement in the earnings release that the current March quarter might be below the just completed Q4 in terms of revenue. Might? Might? That is a beautiful word since last year's March quarter was about 31.5mil in revenue and the just completed Q4 was over 40mil. So, I am confident the current quarter blows away last year's March quarter. This market is also assigning higher multiples to revenue growth than ever before, it really matters and LOJN is delivering. I also believe that this CEO and his team established a ton of credibility by delivering the exact quarter they said they would deliver back in early Nov at the previous cc.
Lastly, I am a big believer in "history repeats"....so I look at what LOJN did from 1995-97 when they went from 5 to 17 and then in 2003-06 when they went from 3 to 27 and realize that the future is brighter now than then and Management is smarter now than then and I am relatively certain we are at the early stages of a long sustained move up in the stock.
Maybe a better way for me to say it is, I'm sure LOJN goes up and over 8 and 10 and 12 and 15 and 20, but I'm not certain of the when.....other than it will be within 24 months.
Hi jay, you have it backwards, profits come from cash flow, not the other way around. That's why profits are ALWAYS less than cash flow, ALWAYS (unless you are a Chinese company). Fall of 2010, Mad Catz net cash was a -47million (yes, minus as in debt), after this March, it will be -3million for a total improvement of 44million in 3+ years. All that has to happen is for that to continue and improve a bit....and it will. Cheers.
In my opinion, not a snowballs chance in H E double hockey sticks that this has anything to do with CTRLi. The timing doesn't work and neither does the ferocity and scale of the buying.
It just seems to me that EVERYTHING about how the stock trades changed the evening of the most recent earnings release.
No matter the motivation of the buyer, I am saddened that someone could actually get that many shares without driving the price to 70 -80 cents. However, my mood is brightened when I realize that today our market cap is still a petty 32ish million and that EXACTLY 25 months from now, Mad Catz could have a net CASH balance of about 32million.....and all they have to do is exactly what they've done the last couple three years. Think about it, after this March they will likely have a net debt of about 3 or 4 million, then after March, 2015 a net cash balance of 12 - 15million, then after March, 2016 perhaps 25-30million. Maybe this is what the market is finally starting to understand?
Tomorrow should be interesting.
Sort of wonder about why do it all at once, however, they got it for about 50 cents so that might be a better price than if they had bought 300,000 shares per day for the next 10 days. Perhaps they saw some big blanket limit sells and decided to take advantage?
Those here who say Mad Catz has always been a leaky ship with respect to news are dead wrong. It has always been the exact opposite, no leaks whatsoever going back at least 6 or 7 years. Every quarter for the last bunch we've proved that over and over.
Most likely it is simply a large fund deciding to "get in".
Perhaps it is a competitor taking a sub-5% position to give them leverage in a takeover.
Maybe it is a pump and dump....doubtful given the amount of money just spent and the fact the stock is still flat verses a month or three ago.
Maybe Mad Catz issues a "we haven't a clue" sort of PR about the trading.
Likely we will never know.
Have no fear, it will happen. Any LONG should be drooling in anticipation while watching the 50dMA and 200dMA. The stock price will move above the 200 soon, and more importantly, the 200 will flatten and the 50 will start to move up.....and then cross. Look at the past 10 years, ACI is very very well behaved with respect to the 50 and 200dMA. It behaved exactly as it should and that will now continue to the upside when the 50 crosses, it will trend up for the next several years with the stock price and 50 leading the way.
What is also happening is the number of shares shorted is falling every day, likely now sub-36million. The daily volume is often getting lighter meaning the short interest (in terms of days to cover) is eventually (by July) going to explode upward to 10 days, then 20, then 30 even as the number of shorted shares falls below 30mil, then 20mil, then 10 mil.
For a bullish long like me, this is exactly like watching the exact opposite of a train wreck. Fun times. Buy more and enjoy more. Cheers.
...and by the way, all this global warming, cooling posting is stupid and boring and irrelevant.