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Hutchinson Technology Inc. Message Board

uptabdowntab 170 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Jul 1, 1998
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  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 24, 2015 9:16 AM Flag

    tracant, It IS brutally simple (though I suppose that assumes some basic level of competence and the ability to read, write, think, and act) and only requires ownership of 1 share. You are correct that deadlines are often early. That single share may need to be registered in your name as well. My point is that it requires no money, no big pile of shares, just some effort, and a bit of time.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 23, 2015 6:31 PM Flag

    emory, All it takes to get something on the ballot for ALL shareholders to vote on is to own a single (1) share of MCZ. IF you own a single share and feel as strongly as you state you do, then why haven't you submitted the required request to put it on the ballot? It will cost you about $1.50 (certified US Mail) and maybe an hour to fill out the submittal form. You still have time for this year's ballot.

    And you do not own 400,000 shares. You were the guy who sold them all at 35.7 cents.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 23, 2015 12:08 PM Flag

    I have never traveled.
    I am very emotional.
    Everything posted on this board impacts the stock.
    CEO is worth $4mil per year.
    I am smarter than you, bigger than you, prettier than you, richer than you.
    I am Not arrogant, simply humble.

    Dude, Lighten up already. You are the one doing the continuous softbashing day after day. I was just trying to encourage you to take break. I have never been to Europe but do travel quite a bit in China, Japan, Singapore. I am about the most un-emotional person ever especially with respect to stocks, though I admit that I sometimes like to "play" on these boards when I am bored. Nothing posted on these boards matters, I am with you there (though I don't think you believe that yourself since you soft-bash). Arrogant isn't the right word although I understand how you get that from some of my posting. I like to tease and incite at times....my weakness. Ok, I am now off to the beach......rip away, that way I'll have something to read tonight.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 23, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    Your evolution from a somewhat interesting poster into a delusional wack-job nutcase over the last year or two has been interesting. Given your obvious hate for the CEO, why do you even follow the company or buy/sell the stock? Seems sort of silly given your stated beliefs. Why not focus on a company and stock and CEO that you believe in and trust? No need to answer, we all know why you are here.

    By the way, it is clear, crystal clear that the CEO is not overpaid, he is underpaid. Should be making $2 or $3mil per year. Not the $600k fast food wages.

    Chess? Like I said.....nutcase.

    Cheers.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 22, 2015 10:35 PM Flag

    dude....Mad Catz is a cash generating machine with or without RB4. They have reduced debt from $44million to $3million in only a few years. Even if RB4 were to fail the company will still be profitable for this FY, that is bottom line GAAP EPS profitability. Company was also profitable in the just completed FY, GAAP EPS of 6 or 7 cents!

    But ignore all that, who cares, doesn't matter, disagree with the numbers, who cares, doesn't matter.

    All you have to do is look at the 20 year stock chart. Anyone buying shares at this sort of price is going to make money, likely 400% to 2000% within 6 - 18 months. If the stock market proves two things over and over again it is these: "History repeats" (always true)........and "This time is different" is ALWAYS wrong.

    So with MCZ it is brutally simple. Buy the stock now and sell it when it is much higher.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 21, 2015 7:51 PM Flag

    I'll take a stab at that as there are many possibilities.....

    1. The $45mil they have avail is more than enough for $145mil in a single quarter as long as inventory turns are enough.
    2. The contract manufacturer/assembler might simply agree to build and ship based on Mad Catz history, reputation, and the fact they always pay their bills. Even the payment terms might naturally span enough time (60 or 90 days?) to make all of this irrelevant.
    3. Likely some combination of #1 and #2. Take some money upfront, and that together with the strength of preorders is enough for the builder to agree to accept the balance later.
    4. How am I able to buy an apartment complex for 10% down? On my good looks? Certainly not. Simply because the bank trusts me enough and has studied the market enough to know I and it is a good investment. Close in August and I have a commercial loan with a rate of 4.40% locked for 7 years! Point is....make a strong case and money is available.

    And there are many more possibilities.
    Cheers.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 21, 2015 5:55 PM Flag

    Oops....you forgot to switch your id back to emoryhowie.

    A couple points......$600k is nothing for a CEO salary......Mad Catz is in a tough business and they continue to survive and occasionally knock the ball out of the park......Trailing PE is 7 and this year PE is sub 2, PS is .2 or some crazy number......balance sheet is robust.....ya can't blame the CEO for how the buyers/sellers of the stock value the company.

    IF you really want to feel better about the current valuation and daily trading, take a look at the historical prices and daily volumes and closes from about July 1, 2010 to Nov 30, 2010. IT LOOKS IDENTICAL TO WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY! Cheers bones....err I mean emory. Dude.

  • Reply to

    1.33 fresh NEW LOWS...

    by svenkarls1 Jul 20, 2015 2:14 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 20, 2015 6:52 PM Flag

    bh, I do give you bonus points for creativity, imagination, and humor. Well done. My favorite was was "Penn has no idea where to make OIS in volume." Why is it even a concern? Surely OIS is a failure so no need to make any. My second favorite was your advice to those short. Similar problem, no one is short HTCH shares. Short interest is well below 1mil shares.

    By the way, my guess on Hutch OIS capacity right now is 4million per week and it is easily doubled. There are zero concerns for FY16 in terms of producing the "tens of millions" that Penn promised during the cc Q&A. Maybe they will be capacity constrained in FY17.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 20, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    In my opinion.....Because it would not work.

    The fundamental difference between an event (like a music fest) and a product (like RB4) is that "the event ends on a specific day and time." In comparison, a product is sold forever. Also, with any event, there is a finite number of spectators allowed....with a product, not so much as it is always available, even if that means the secondary market.

    I liked your earlier post of the DR interview and comments on kiosks. I really love that approach for this type of product and the fact that the bulk of sales are in Nov/Dec. I think these guys really do have some brain function.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 19, 2015 9:53 PM Flag

    I'm clueless about their business. That said, so called peer companies all trade at valuations many times higher than INVE. I also think that Hart has enough competence AND enough wheeler-dealer in him to ensure that the stock goes much higher at some point in the next year or two. With INVE I think it is as simple as promising yourself not to sell at a loss.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 18, 2015 9:00 PM Flag

    "Why" you ask. Very simple. They cannot, they have been locked out for most of the year due to their knowledge of OIS customers and upcoming OIS ramps. Notice the use of the plural.

    Psssstt....Do ya wonder why Hutch didn't warn for the Apr/May/Jun quarter? Increase in OIS revenue has already more than offset the temporary HDD susp revenue softness.

    Psstt #2....HTCH will never ever again trade between $2 and $3! It is going to go straight from sub-$2 to above-$3 overnight.....and then keep rising from there. Over $700million in revenue is in sight.

    Cheers.

  • Reply to

    ANR is at 8 cents today...

    by svenkarls1 Jul 17, 2015 2:08 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 18, 2015 8:53 PM Flag

    Pretty good....Thanks for asking.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 16, 2015 4:15 PM Flag

    FY16 started April 1st, Q1 report due in early August but why wait, here are the upcoming EPS numbers (my guesses):
    Q1= -2 pennies
    Q2= +4 pennies
    Q3= +19 pennies
    Q4= +3 pennies
    Wonder if the stock will still be at 38 cents after Q4?

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 14, 2015 8:11 PM Flag

    Not so hard to believe. Just look at your own, and my, and most other's behavior. Is MCZ your only investment? No Is MCZ your only stock? No. I suspect you and most here are well diversified. I have most of my money in real estate, some active, some passive. I have all my liquid money in checking and saving accounts. Then I have most all my stocks in IRA and Roth IRA accounts. Then within those IRA accounts I own about a dozen stocks, though not equally weighted.

    Then another way to look at is with respect to other opportunities in the stock market. Do I expect MCZ to be a 5 - 10 bagger? Yes. Problem is, I also expect HTCH to be a 10 - 20 bagger. And INVE to at least triple. And VTSI to triple. And ANR to maybe be a 50 - 100 bagger. And so on and so forth. I like comparing MCZ to HTCH because they are so similar in the opportunities and risks. Base business that is at best break even right now. RockBand 4 verses OIS. Recent dilution and capital raise. MCZ balance sheet better in some ways, worse in others. Exec management that is marginal but capable.

    Also, by now, all of us have plenty of MCZ shares.

    B_frnk and others are correct, nothing will happen here....until it does.

  • Reply to

    New Songs

    by tony_dolgoff Jul 13, 2015 10:31 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 14, 2015 10:03 AM Flag

    Great post and observation. Nice to see there are customers out there who are following close enough to actually notice the song release and then act on it. Jumped from 700 to 300....just good to see life.

  • Reply to

    Why are

    by hogryder2000 Jul 13, 2015 11:24 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 13, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    Well said. At some point in the next couple months it is going to double in the span of 10 minutes. Then double again and again between then and Spring. That gets you to $3 without even trying.....and the funniest part of the whole deal will be that the trailing PE will be sub-15 and the trailing PS a sub-market of 1ish.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 13, 2015 2:12 PM Flag

    IF my memory is correct, the MAJORITY of shareholders wanted the reverse split, however, it required 66.67% of the vote in order to pass. The reverse split only received about 61 or 62%. The main mistake they made at that time was they wanted it to be 1 for 100. Had they gone for 1 for 10 or 1 for 20 I think it would have passed. I was all for it at the time and still am.

  • So Seagate preannounces their revenues will be 10% lower than expected. Everyone knew this was coming and it marks a decent likelihood of a bottom since STX stock remains flat to up today. Hutch stock barely reacts, more confirmation in my opinion. Seagate simply told us today what Hutch told us during last cc when they provided -10% guidance for suspension ships.

    All this is obvious yet you still have some poor HTCH owners who are intent on selling at the absolute bottom below $2. It is no wonder 5% of investors/traders make 95% of the profits.

    HDD susp business is now valued at essentially zero AND the soon-to-be-ramping OIS business is valued at less than zero. Remarkable times. Anyone capable of querying Taiwanese autofocus and camera module blogs and company websites and reading/translating a bit of the Chinese language will soon discover the first couple likely Hutch OIS customers. A bit more research will show you exactly which smartphone companies they ship to. Of course, not all blogs are to be believed and perhaps I am reading more into them than I should. An analyst or two will need to ask some point blank questions during the upcoming cc and be confident enough to name names. Though maybe Hutch will make it easy on all of us and tell us before then.

    The ability to read, write, listen, think, and do math will make you rich.

  • Reply to

    i most say all the catz amazon Bundles

    by joey71440 Jul 10, 2015 1:49 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 10, 2015 3:23 PM Flag

    Walk into ANY GameStop and watch what is happening. Every other person that walks in, walks directly up to the counter and preorders something. All day, every day.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 10, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    The only point of my post was to illustrate that it takes very few preorders per location to add up to big numbers for Mad Catz and Harmonics. Remember, I am an engineer, not a scientist. Ballpark is plenty close enough for me.

HTCH
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