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Hutchinson Technology Inc. Message Board

uptabdowntab 367 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 29, 2014 9:08 PM Member since: Jul 1, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Overall market....they are bound and

    by uptabdowntab Aug 7, 2014 3:31 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Aug 7, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    It's not a theory, they are always guilty.

  • determined to make sure the S&P and the DOW both go down a few more points so that they are both down 5% from peak.....then everyone will feel better because we've had a correction. Pathetic but reality.

  • more than some of my bigger holdings. It is as close to a "sure thing" over the next couple years as anything I have ever seen. $4+ tomorrow, $5 by Friday close, $9 by Christmas, $15 by end of CY2015, $30 at some point in 2017. Fun times.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Aug 6, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    My take on the whole Neeham presentation is that it was reasonably well done. Darren sounded like he had a good grasp of things and anyone in attendance who didn't know much about Mad Catz walked away knowing a lot more. The important stuff will likely happen over the next several days when those big boys who are interested (if any) will likely follow up with Darren and then maybe over the next few weeks start to build positions. I think Hopeful's point about familiarity breeding contempt (by many of us here, including me at times) is a good one.

    Still feels to me like this will pop any day now, however, I think worse case is that we have a 3 month wait before the inevitable rise. That's not so bad.

  • 100 - 200 thou shares to keep the stock pinned? Someone should come in with size and blow them out of the water.

  • starting to grow. Looking forward to the conf call and outlook. Stock is cheap based on EV/EBITDA and PS. PE will start to look eons better within a year. This should snowball upward as the new customers come online.

  • their is a link on the Mad Catz website to listen to it live. How on earth can we go from 400,000 shares one day to nothing the next? Weird. Best explanation is a bit of an attempt to keep the price low so the Needham attendees have a shot to get in cheap. But who knows, maybe as simple as no one cares.

    Sort of like HTCH, a day or two before earnings the stock is at $2 and a grand total of 40,000 shares trade. Now a few days later and the stock is at 3.5 and 5 million shares trade. Where does all that volume come from when there are only 28mil shares? I will likely die before I ever figure out any of this stuff.

  • Reply to

    Time for some insider buys?

    by tommccauley31 Aug 6, 2014 8:59 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Aug 6, 2014 10:46 AM Flag

    Hi Tom, You should send Chuck Ives an email or phone call and find out if they even lifted the blackout. Last quarter I think it was closed for the whole quarter. His contact info is on their website and he is reasonably responsive. I sort of lit him up a bit a month or two back so I'm not going to ask.

  • Reply to

    Closing Games....funny & stupid

    by uptabdowntab Aug 5, 2014 4:14 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Aug 5, 2014 4:43 PM Flag

    ...ok, I guess yahoo just slow...now the only think stupid was my post

  • Fidelity shows close of 61 cents, down .005 for the day on 392,525 volume.
    Yahoo shows close of 59 cents on volume of 392,491

    Funny how 34 shares can make someone feel good or bad. One of these days (soon), it will spike up to 80 or 90 cents on 3 mil shares and then keep right on rolling.

  • Reply to

    The problem doesn't seem

    by uptabdowntab Aug 5, 2014 11:53 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Aug 5, 2014 12:24 PM Flag

    If I had any available cash I would be doing the same. With the swoon of the little stocks this Summer I am pretty much all in at this point and I like the stuff I own so I don't want to shift stuff around. I wanted to mention that your statement last week about not owning more than about 4 stocks since about 2008 resonated well with me. Back in the 1990s I used to own about 20, then in the 2000s I typically held about 10 or 12. Over the last couple years I stick with about 6 or 8. Just seem to get better returns that way.

  • uptabdowntab by uptabdowntab Aug 5, 2014 11:53 AM Flag

    to be that people are selling. The problem seems to be that very few are buying. Most of us on this board already own as many shares as we are comfortable with. Apparently few others are motivated to buy. I wish there was some sort of upcoming event that would stir some interest.....oh yea, Needham is tomorrow.....and blackout on insiders is lifted on Thursday....

    CEO and CFO supremely confident (this hasn't always been the case)
    Balance sheet beautiful
    Current year PE is about 4 (my estimates)
    Macro environment in which MadCatz plays is improving
    ...and on and on

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Aug 5, 2014 8:17 AM Flag

    Thanks for the kind words in one of your posts a day or two ago, I did manage to sift through the rubble of this message board and read the interesting ones.

    Now, just for fun, let's look ahead about 30 months.......(my guesses):

    HDD suspension assys: Shipping 150mil/quarter, Annual Rev=$350mil, EPS=$1.20
    OIS assys: Shipping 20mil/quarter, Annual Rev=$200mil, EPS=$0.80

    Sort of fun to apply reasonable PS and PE and EV/EBITDA ratios to those sort of numbers. The neat thing is that the HDD stuff is sort of an inevitable, very little doubt. And the OIS stuff likely has huge upside verses what I guessed above though success is far less likely (compared to the HDD).

    I love how Hutch went about the OIS development, very little rah rah, close to the vest, and most importantly they partnered with someone with brains and ties to the decision makers in the industry. They coordinated the announcements nicely and it would seem they have learned lessons from their blood monitoring debacle of the past.

    Many reasons to buy more shares. My guess is the stock should be in a "buy the dip" mentality for the next couple three years.

    Cheers and congrats!

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Aug 4, 2014 10:57 PM Flag

    Exactly right. Think about it, why would anyone sell now? Then compare those answers with the ones to the question...Why would anyone buy now? Then compare the quality of both answers and it is clear (crystal) that MCZ will be far higher in a week, in a month, and in a year.

  • Reply to

    wow....

    by charboneus Aug 4, 2014 10:12 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Aug 4, 2014 10:54 PM Flag

    Well said. Some here might think I'm a wacko, but I think all of us now know the definition of deranged lunatic nutjob without a life. Wow is right.

  • Reply to

    The ship continues to sink

    by nicebooger Aug 4, 2014 7:05 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Aug 4, 2014 8:24 PM Flag

    If this is a sinking ship, I'm going to ride it all the way. Ok, revenues were light but margins were good and the year-over-year cash improvement is beautiful. Pretty neat that one year from now they will have net positive cash. The product lineup is currently good and it will be better than great by late October. The analyst estimate for full year EPS is going to rise and will likely be in the 11 or 12 cent range, still too low but at least respectable. For the CEO and CFO to guide to possible mid-30s gross margins is impressive no matter how you look at it.

    Let's see if insiders add even more shares beginning Thursday.

    It also seems like a slam dunk that there is going to be a nice run in the stock leading up to the next earnings announcement in early Nov.

  • uptabdowntab by uptabdowntab Aug 4, 2014 6:55 PM Flag

    I feel silly for not owning HSKA anymore. Made some $ on it, but should have stayed. Anyway, it is nice to see HTCH move powerfully up. I think it was you said something like "what's the rush, there will be plenty of time". Even though it has almost doubled, I wanted to tell you that you are still probably correct. The OIS announcement is a gamechanger. They did this the right way by partnering up early with the UK company with brainpower and connections, I think they learned their lessons with their blood monitoring debacle. If you look at the OIS, it makes sense for HTCH.

    I truly believe that 2 - 3 years from now, a strong case can be made for the hard drive products to be worth $15/share (EPS of 80 cents) and OIS to be worth about the same for a grand total of $30/share....15 bagger from last Thursday, 8 bagger from today.

    Lots can go wrong but the numbers could even be more spectacular and make $30 look silly low. Buy the dips, its going lots higher.

  • Reply to

    What wasn't said on the call

    by dotthalliday Aug 4, 2014 5:52 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Aug 4, 2014 6:00 PM Flag

    Wow, then I must truly be insane since it was more than mentioned, it was discussed in depth by Darren, I think during the Q/A.

  • ....maybe he is a bit of a salesman.

  • Reply to

    OMG....Darren just said the magic words...

    by uptabdowntab Aug 4, 2014 5:27 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Aug 4, 2014 5:37 PM Flag

    We should set some Over/Unders on words like......passionate, inflection

HTCH
4.49-0.21(-4.47%)Aug 29 4:00 PMEDT

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