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Hutchinson Technology Inc. Message Board

uptabdowntab 465 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 26, 2015 11:02 AM Member since: Jul 1, 1998
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  • or possibly on Jan 13th, the day of Needham conference? Sooner would sure be better than later. Most bullish indicator of late is the continued declining number of shares shorted. Everything seems to be setting up nicely for late January.

  • Reply to

    filled a few at 1.21 club on deck at 1.20

    by anabolic44444 Jan 7, 2015 2:20 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 7, 2015 3:43 PM Flag

    You guys should all be happy I haven't bought any yet. Came close to pulling the trigger sub-1.10 but didn't have the guts. Maybe I should just buy some, that would send it to 90 cents, then I could add the rest. Never easy.

  • Reply to

    Looking at the five day chart...

    by microcaptrader Jan 7, 2015 4:14 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 7, 2015 4:16 PM Flag

    The BNI is also pointing up.

  • Reply to

    wonder if this selling....

    by hopeful200 Jan 7, 2015 6:26 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 7, 2015 8:59 PM Flag

    I've wondered the same. My guess is that the selling is not Rudy Miller or his firm but that is just a guess based on the several conversations I have had with him in 2014. I believe he is adding shares. His enthusiasm in conversations could not have been faked. He was very bullish. He also did not buy any shares all the while he represented VirTra and I think it bugged him that he couldn't (due to all the inside stuff he knew). I think he wants to benefit from what he has done to help shape the company and the only way to do it is to buy lots of shares. But maybe I have it exactly backward. Although, I really doubt if he owned more than 1 or 2 % of the company so if he is selling it will not last very long. We will probably never know for sure.

  • Profitable, debt free. They could TRIPLE the dividend and still have enough cash flow to cover. They made the toughest decision for any corporate bureaocrazy and actually cut some heads and expenses. Enrollment will stabilize and head up within a year. Great stock to own, it is worth $5 or $6 today. Cheers All.

    Hey catjomy, why don't you just sell your shares and move on if you hate it so much?

  • note the new promo video that appears. It is awesome, up to date, timely. These guys are on top of things and hitting on all cylinders.

    I used to have several fears with this company. My first was that anyone could duplicate what they are doing by messing around in their garage with a few computers and screens. I have come to realize there is a huge barrier to entry in this industry. Barriers include all the time, money, and expertise involved in filming/producing/editing the scenarios. Live actors and all. They also have a rather big software component to their systems and some unique hardware stuff as well. Another barrier is getting established with your potential customer base. Many of their customers are spending public dollars so the scrutiny is deep. Municipalities will say YES to something used by other peer organizations, but are unlikely to try a new company.

    Another fear was that they would not be able to profitably scale the business. That has proven false. It is difficult to decrease the cost of these systems significantly even as you sell more. However, the future upgrades and maintenance are all pure profit. And in this day and age, everyone will want the latest scenarios.

    We are all going to be extremely happy shareholders before year-end.

    In the new video, I like that they included taser training! Hhhhmmmmmm.

  • VirTra is about 25miles from Taser in Phoenix. Similar customer base. Look at VirTra website today and watch the new promo video. It even mentions taser training in the middle of it. VTSI is still an undiscovered stock and a great buy. I own quite a few shares. Do your research and you will like what you see...10 years in a row of revenue growth, earnings growth, great margins, no debt, plenty of cash, great cash flow, patent protection, a good sales force, etc.

    VTSI is a great stock buy on its own but I am fully expecting it to become part of TASR within a year. Just a guess. It would be extremely accretive to Taser.

    Cheers all.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 8, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    Thank you for your advice. I will continue to add shares. So, exactly why are you here? Sincerely curious.

  • Reply to

    OT but really OnTopic: Take a peak at VTSI

    by uptabdowntab Jan 8, 2015 12:52 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 8, 2015 2:15 PM Flag

    Sorry to bump my own post but I had no idea how active this board was/is. VTSI could go a long way toward supporting/improving TASR's lofty valuation.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 8, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    You ask....Why do I care? Because I find it interesting and enlightening to understand motives and motivations. Does it make any difference? Not in terms of your actions but maybe in terms of mine and others that read your posts.

    Perhaps I will be wrong about NAUH, but I doubt it. I am content to hold for 5 to 10 years or longer. The next time the US economy tanks, and it eventually will, NAUH and their competitors will all do exceedingly well. They always have and always will.

    HTCH? Now that is funny. I have made so much on that stock to date that it almost makes me ill. Sure, I thought it would be 10+ by now and it is not. But it is just fine with me if I am off by a year or two. HTCH will be over $6 within 4 weeks and over $15 within 9 months. You should buy some.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 8, 2015 3:03 PM Flag

    My last try....please answer the question about why you are posting here. Clearly you are not short the stock since the entire number of shorted shares is sub-10,000. Clearly you don't own the stock since you would not be ripping on it so much. That leaves only two possibilities.....you are either trying to talk it down in order to buy shares.....or you are a disgruntled former employee with a personal ax to grind. Whatever dude, good luck to you.

  • Reply to

    Did you see that late activity?

    by hopeful200 Jan 8, 2015 4:09 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 8, 2015 4:21 PM Flag

    Stupid weird is how I describe it. The company is worth multiples of the current price, it is a penny stock, and someone is messing around with fractional cents. I'm happy the company is acting like an adult even if the stock is not.

    It sort of strikes me as someone trying very hard to accumulate a lot of shares without pushing up the price. Probably a pro though since they are willing to sacrifice a few shares along the way and take advantage of end of day stuff. The trading volume is still so very light and erratic that it is probably easy to do. With 158mil shares, until we start trading 3 - 5mil each day the stock is not going to behave.

    In spite of the great overall market day, it was a tough day for many very small company stocks.

  • Reply to

    Awesome - Take a look at VirTra's website and

    by uptabdowntab Jan 8, 2015 11:16 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 8, 2015 7:50 PM Flag

    Oh so very true. Buying VTSI today at 14 cents is a far better deal and far safer buy than it was buying at 5 cents six months ago. FY15 numbers are going to be really good. The upcoming FY14Q4 report will also be excellent.....and this simply continues/accelerates the multi-year record of profitable growth. Those on this message board are well aware of what is coming yet VirTra remains undiscovered since it is a penny stock and they are not in to patting themselves on the back.

    I can't wait for the late March Q4 report and mid-May Q1 report and outlooks.
    I can't wait until they tell us they will be uplisting to the OTC.
    I can't wait unitl I read the PR announcing that VirTra is being purchased by a bigger fish.

    ....and yet I promised the bride I'd be more patient in 2015. Sigh.

  • think for ourselves and are already in the stock. It is $15 stock (this year) trading for $3.60. Enjoy the ride.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 10, 2015 9:20 AM Flag

    In terms of MCZ stock price, my current belief is that is makes no difference whether Q3 comes in at 35mil or 45mil or 55mil or 65mil. Whether EPS are 2cents or 15cents, it doesn't matter. MCZ stock will go up when the powers-that-be decide it is time to take it up.....and I don't even think there are any powers-that-be.

  • Reply to

    Is his the phone?

    by cscokid_00 Jan 10, 2015 9:15 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 10, 2015 9:21 AM Flag

    Go to the Cambridge Mechantronics website and read yesterday's news. All the info is there including details on the phone.

  • Reply to

    Is his the phone?

    by cscokid_00 Jan 10, 2015 9:15 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 10, 2015 9:23 AM Flag

    Mechatronics....and I see you found it.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 10, 2015 6:21 PM Flag

    Another reason Q3 doesn't matter is because Q4 will be the best in company history, likely a repeat of Q3. Then Q1 will be +1cent......and at that point it becomes crystal clear that MCZ will never ever have another quarter without positive EPS. But again, I truly believe none of this matters with this stock. Powers-that-be that don't exist are in control.

  • Reply to

    Good thing that most of us here can

    by uptabdowntab Jan 9, 2015 2:55 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 11, 2015 6:09 PM Flag

    TAM on OIS is potentially huge. A number so big that there will need to be other suppliers besides Hutch to supply if the Cambridge/Hutch solution takes hold. Hutch/Cambridge have this design locked up and well protected both in terms of design, manufacturing, and assy. There is good market data on the Cambridge Mechatronics website that will show you the potential.

    The thing with HTCH is that their HDD suspension business is growing and they are in the process of going from 24% market share to 33-35% market share over the next approx. 8 quarters. EPS from that alone will be over $1/share. The HDD susp business is worth more than the current share price.

    You are getting the OIS business for free. In a previous cc, Hutch stated they would receive about $2.00 to $2.50 per OIS assy shipped and margins would be better than the HDD susp business.

    Seems to me that they could be shipping 10mil OIS susp/Qtr by Q4 and that in the next FY starting Oct 1 they could maybe ship 60 to 100million assys.

    So, the way I look at it is that two years from today, Hutch could have trailing EPS of $1 and forward EPS of $1.50 with an easy jaunt to $2/share. Time will tell but at $3.70 there is little risk and maybe a 10 bagger over the next 3 or 4 years.

  • Reply to

    Good thing that most of us here can

    by uptabdowntab Jan 9, 2015 2:55 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 11, 2015 7:47 PM Flag

    Your question on SSS has been around for 2 decades now and HDD is stronger than ever. Bottom line continues to be the fact that solid state drives are still far too expensive. There also is not enough wafer fab capacity in the entire world to produce enough solid state memory to even begin to displace HDD in a meaningful way. So don't lose sleep worrying about than angle.

    We all became aware of OIS on Aug 1st. However, yesterday's HTCH pop and share volume was due to the Cambridge press release where we all got confirmation that it really is in production and shipping in a real smartphone from a real and viable producer. Infocus is more or less FoxConn's own "in house" brand....I think.

    Of course OIS is positive news as long as it results in significant volume of $2.50 assys being shipped from Hutch. HDD susp plus OIS could get Hutch to the $1billion revenue level in 3 or 4 years.

    All that said, my opinion is that the only reason Hutch did not report profits at last quarters HDD susp ship volume is because of the money being spent on the OIS development. So, short term pain (which should now be behind us) for long term gain.

    Sure was nice to see Dez Bryant drop that pass! I'll be chuckling all week.

HTCH
2.6228-0.0472(-1.77%)9:46 AMEDT