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Hutchinson Technology Inc. Message Board

uptabdowntab 267 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 33 minutes ago Member since: Jul 1, 1998
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  • Reply to

    uptab and longtimefollower to book big losses

    by barney67895 Nov 7, 2015 5:01 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 7, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    Hey there barney, Love you too.

    My avg price is $2.83 and avg length of time held is 10.5 months, over 300,000 shares. I will hold through the closing.

    Yes, this is disappointing....but better than a stick in the eye. I still hold out slight hope for someone else to offer $5 or $6 but I would say the likelihood is less than 30% chance.

  • Reply to

    uptab and longtimefollower to book big losses

    by barney67895 Nov 7, 2015 5:01 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 7, 2015 2:27 PM Flag

    jkweabm, You hit the nail on the head with respect to the real value of these message boards, it is helpful to find new stocks to buy. I have lots of MCZ shares and added more yesterday but I hesitate to recommend it as it is a very frustrating company and an even crcrazier skizo stock. I also own a ton of VTSI and they will report this Friday but again I hesitate to recommend because the volume is so iffy, very tough to buy and sell lots of shares. VTSI-the company is doing great.

    If you are more into dividend/income sort of stuff, I really like NRZ and PNNT. I trust PNNT management, I cannot claim to really understand NRZ's business but those boys can sure talk a good game on conf calls.

    I keep slowly adding NAII shares, it is a deeply undervalued and well run company.

    Some big ones you can make money on...BP and NUE but it will be years for a decent payoff.

    I also think HTCH is a great buy right now as long as you can be happy holding through the closing for about +10%. 10% in about 3 months is pretty darn good.

    I also like NAUH but sort of waiting to add more until it stabilizes.

    Good luck.

  • Reply to

    uptab and longtimefollower to book big losses

    by barney67895 Nov 7, 2015 5:01 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 8, 2015 9:23 AM Flag

    barney, It does not matter what you believe. Over the years, I have been consistent in what I do well and what I do poorly with respect to buying/selling a tiny company homerun type of stock. The story is remarkably similar for many of my stocks. I generally start buying too early (as the stock is still heading lower), but I almost always have the confidence to keep buying as it keeps sinking and then buying a ton of shares (multiples of what I started with) when it is at the low point. It is a gut wrenching terrible way to go about it, but that is the way it has generally worked for me. Then as the stock heads up, I sell gradually.....unless it is bought out ala HTCH ala OTIX or something radically changes ala SPDC.

    Right now I am in the most painful time with MCZ.

  • Reply to

    uptab and longtimefollower to book big losses

    by barney67895 Nov 7, 2015 5:01 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 8, 2015 9:26 AM Flag

    I forgot about INVE....mainly because I am already done buying. I own lots of shares now and believe that over the next couple years it will get back to $15 or $20. The message board there is poison though (other than Tommie) so best to stay away from it.

  • Reply to

    probably an unpopular post

    by hopeful200 Nov 8, 2015 12:19 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 8, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    hi hopeful, Your excellent post inspired me to briefly come out of my self-imposed MCZ posting retirement. Now that I've had a couple days to think about stuff, here's my opinion:

    1. The market got it completely backwards with respect to selling the stock based on Q2 results and cc.
    2. Q2 results confirmed RB4 is a hit and gave us the best visibility ever with respect to a Q3.
    3. While Q2 EPS was slightly disappointing, if Q3 gets in to the $80 - $100mil range, EPS will be pushing 12 - 15 cents.
    4. Q4 will likely be very profitable on the same revenue level as Q2 due to RB4 mix shifting to guitar bundles and stand alone instruments.

    With respect to the ATM. Maybe they cancel it? Maybe they do not use it? Terms are better than the shelf it replaced. Maybe they amend it down to $5mil MAX. It does give them flexibility so not all bad.

    Most importantly. The only way the CEO and CFO succeed professionally is to grow the company and the stock price....and to date they have failed. Any person at this level wants to move to something bigger and better, that doesn't happen with a 45cent stock or sub-zero EPS. Ever go to a party and tell people you work for a company with a 45 cent stock price?

    Lastly, whining and complaining on this board does no good, if you want to be heard show up at the annual meeting and voice your opinions there.

    This message board is generally poison. Just look at b_fr_nk's reply and how he is trying to scare people into selling based on his EPS stupidity calculation.

    Back to posting retirement (and yes, I own many more shares today than I did on the most recent Thursday).

  • Reply to

    I don't know this industry as well as

    by carpinus1 Nov 8, 2015 5:06 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 8, 2015 5:23 PM Flag

    Agree with many of your thoughts. Not sure about the last sentence though. It might take someone another 4 - 6 weeks to put something together and announce.
    &D
    I believe TDK is buying for two reasons; #1 is OIS and a close #2 is to get the Hutch susp business in the hopes it leads to a bit of pricing power for them.

    I think the way to think about this is who might ultimately lose in this deal. Certainly Seagate and WDC could lose since their supply base went from 3 to 2 and both are Japan-based companies (NHK and TDK). Let's say that over the next year 450million suspension assys are shipped industry wide. Now let's say the price starts trending up by several cents a year and pretty soon it is costing these guys $50mil a year with no end in sight. Also only having 2 suppliers adds risk to each drive company. Any big quality issues or cleanliness issues or reliability issues and the drive guys will be badly hurt.

    The other big losers are competitors to Hutch in the OIS business. It is one thing to be brave and confident in the face of competing with little old Hutch, it is another to take on a multi-billion dollar company with the best engineering resources and R&D in the world.

    Initially I also thought Cambridge was a big winner in all this. Now I'm not so sure. If I'm Cambridge, I have power and leverage over Hutch due to their size and limited engineering resources. TDK is a powerhouse and I'm not so sure I would trust them as a partner or want every one of my secrets in their hands. I have yet to see a patent that cannot be "gotten around."

    At $4, the deal only costs $135million and the assumption of some debt. These bigger players all have huge credit lines on extremely favorable terms (compared to Hutch) so the debt is not even a bad thing.

    It would sure make sense to me for Seagate, WDC, OIS competitors, or a private group to step in and buy. Much better use of cash and leverage than other options.

  • Reply to

    I don't know this industry as well as

    by carpinus1 Nov 8, 2015 5:06 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 8, 2015 5:25 PM Flag

    I should have included Cambridge (or affiliated partners) in my last paragraph.

  • Reply to

    I don't know this industry as well as

    by carpinus1 Nov 8, 2015 5:06 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 8, 2015 7:56 PM Flag

    barney, Why do you even care? Clearly you don't own any shares given your previous comments on HTCH.

    I agree it is unlikely that either Seagate or WDC buy Hutch, very unlikely.

    Much more likely for a PE group to step in since very easy for them to IPO two businesses within a couple three years.

    My point on Hutch's net $90mil debt is that just about ANY acquirer has the ability to refinance it at much lower rates. Hutch is already cash flow positive so the debt is not much of an anchor anyway.

    Again, I still think there is only a 0 - 30% chance of a new higher priced bid.

    Why do you care since you don't own any?

  • fundamental valuation of the company based on PS ratio. Most every company that has a decent balance sheet and runs a more or less breakeven business is worth at least (worse case) a PS=.5.

    With MCZ, take your pick of revenue to use, $100mil in a bad year or $200mil in a good year. So even after any dilution, there will still be less than 100mil shares so it seems to me that is very likely the stock gets back to the 70cent to 100cent range.....one way or the other.

    It is likely to get there on its own merits as we approach Christmas or the Q3 release date at the latest. If the stock is still at 40cents in early Feb, I would guess a bigger fish waltzes in and buys the company for 60 cents.

    So even with this sort of worse case analysis, it seems likely the stock goes up 60 - 140% from here by March1st.....2016.

    Misc questions/statements to ponder...
    - Why all the bashers wasting time here if they hate the company, its stock, and its CEO/CFO?
    - Why have holders of 72million shares decided to hold the stock and only 2million decided to sell?
    - CEO/CFO salaries are only 3X that of a decent engineer in San Diego, they have a vested interest in seeing a higher stock price.
    - The company will generate many millions in free cash flow this FY.

    Cheers all, brighter days ahead.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 9, 2015 7:09 PM Flag

    INVE is so beaten down and expectations are so low that it seems likely the earnings release will help the stock no matter what results are reported. I bought some sub-$3 shares so that has helped buffer the MCZ stock debacle.

  • Reply to

    Deal Timeline

    by tgagrippa Nov 10, 2015 7:00 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 10, 2015 9:21 AM Flag

    I like the way you think! The approx. deal timeline strikes me as pretty normal. I also think it closes in the first half of Q2 rather than later in the quarter, so maybe between Jan 15 and Feb 20 or something like that.

    Back when I owned OTIX and they announced a buyout with similar timing, another higher offer came in about 1 month after the initial announcement and the stock went up a bunch more. So my fingers are crossed.

    Just sort of nice to own a stock that is just about guaranteed to go up another 31 cents in a short time.

  • Reply to

    Well Orchestrated

    by xwallstcfo Nov 10, 2015 12:18 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 10, 2015 12:48 PM Flag

    Every sentence that follows is simply my personal opinion.......You basher types are relentless. No, the company is not selling shares. Forbidden to sell within 5 business days of announcement. Forbidden to use limit orders. Forbidden to exceed more than 15% of trading volume in any given day. Many restrictions......not the least of which is the CFO saying they might never sell a single share. If they do sell a share, then must report within 48 hours.

  • uptabdowntab by uptabdowntab Nov 10, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    Rock solid great stock to buy.

  • Just for fun, think about this.....at 40 cents, every valuation metric (PS, PE, EV/EBITDA) for the company is lower than it was at 75cents EVEN IF YOU ASSUMED an additional 60mil shares! And IF YOU ASSUME A PILE OF ADDITIONAL SHARES, then you also need to realize the balance sheet suddenly has a big net surplus of cash.

    I do not believe the company has sold even 1 additional share since earnings. The entire trading volume over those 3 days is far less than even 3 million!

    Point is, assume the worst (about +15mil shares over the next year based on the restrictions in the ATM) and at the end of THIS FY, company will be debt free and have about $15million in excess cash. At a 40 cent stock price, PS will be 0.18, PE will be in the 4 to 10 range, EV/EBITDA will be sub-5.

    Bashers can keep pounding but trading volume is about nothing so no one is benefitting from any of this. The stock is a tremendous buy and one way or another it is going to go up. Think about the 900k shorted shares, even if every one covered, their total gain was likely LESS THAN $200,000....peanuts. Let the stock go to zero and they gained a total of maybe $500,000....walnuts. Not even possible for them to get to cashews.

    All the money to be made on MCZ is to the upside and it will run. Micro said it best a week or two when he said something like "it never plays out exactly like we all expect.".....but it will play out.

    Cheers and feeling good again.

  • Reply to

    Yet again, excellent results.

    by uptabdowntab Nov 10, 2015 4:13 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 10, 2015 4:51 PM Flag

    If the stock price was $14 and dividend was 38cents/quarter then I might agree with you. But relative to a $7 stock price (far below NAV) and 28cent div (can cover forever with this sort of performance) they did spectacularly well. The very slight decline in NAV is far better than anyone had hoped.

  • Reply to

    Bizarre, funny, and encouraging.....

    by uptabdowntab Nov 10, 2015 4:46 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 10, 2015 5:10 PM Flag

    A what? I think extremejim was the one who said "never take investment advice from anyone that has a job."

    My day today.....Breakfast, dropped off kids at school, walked the dog, drove around to check on a couple of my apartment buildings, Lunch, a couple hour bird hunt (shot 2) with my dog, catch up on stocks, Supper ahead......

  • Reply to

    Bizarre, funny, and encouraging.....

    by uptabdowntab Nov 10, 2015 4:46 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 10, 2015 5:12 PM Flag

    My biggest decision today was whether to use shells with 7 1/2 shot or 6 shot.

  • Reply to

    Contacting MCZ

    by xwallstcfo Nov 11, 2015 12:53 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 11, 2015 3:15 PM Flag

    It is also very easy to get his direct phone number. Simply call the company and ask to speak to him. About 6 - 9 months ago I posted his direct phone number on this message board.....so if you dig back you can probably find it that way. I didn't write it down so I would have to call the company to get it....and I don't care that much.

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by miltonmartin301 Nov 11, 2015 12:20 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 11, 2015 4:52 PM Flag

    Should be out Friday morning before the open.

    They are consistent and always announce 45 days after Q1, Q2, Q3......and 90 days after Q4.

  • Reply to

    Karen can't win

    by bodybag2006 Nov 11, 2015 3:51 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 11, 2015 4:55 PM Flag

    So b_fr_nk, help me out.....exactly why are you still here? You and your clients have sold all your shares, you hate the company management, you despise the ATM, RB4 is a one-shot/one quarter wonder, and your EPS estimate is only a couple three cents.

    ...yet you post like crazy and continue to spin. Why?

HTCH
3.73-0.03(-0.80%)Feb 5 4:00 PMEST