Good points all around. That said, I believe that these days the markets are much more reactionary than forward looking. 25 years ago I would have said forward looking, 10 years ago 50/50, now reactionary.
....and I ask myself, if MCZ is $1 by Oct 1st will I still own 1% of the company? The answer is yes.
$2 in Feb?....yes, will still have 1%
$3 in June?....yes, will still have 1%
$6 in June?.....depends on many factors but will likely sell one third or so.
and so on.
Part of the reason I post something like I just did is because I truly believe many investors/traders leave a rising stock far too soon. I think it is important to imagine the possible upside scenarios and determine how plausible they may be, likewise to the downside.
To me it seems very likely that Mad Catz will execute well on RB4. I also believe this can become a 5 to 8 quarter event simply through more marketing, more features, added songs, added instruments, etc. Lastly, I believe this sort of success opens the doors to similar deals with other majors, partly due to the visibility of RB4 success and partly due to a balance sheet that will be flush with cash by April/May. IF there is another similar deal, the sky really is the limit.
Another reason for optimism is that I think Mad Catz execs realize how truly blessed they are to have gotten this RB4 opportunity. Perhaps they took some of RB3 for granted and squandered opportunities in 2010/11. Now, 5 years later, I would hope they understand the opportunity in front of them. When one looks at 20 or 30 year career, there are typically only 4 or 5 MAJOR projects/events that fully shape it. When one is 25 years old, that is not apparent, when one is 50 years old, it is apparent. This too should help Mad Catz and MCZ.
Overall market is not relevant in any way to either Mad Catz or MCZ. Today was encouraging as has been the entire last 5 or 6 weeks. This will really get fun when it starts going up 50 cents in one day and takes out $3 then $4 then $6. It is going to happen. Current year EPS of 20 cents with an improved outlook for FY17 (which starts in only 7 months) easily gets this to $5. FY17 of 40 cents gets it $10. Sounds stupid silly to even say $10 but all it will take is current FY execution of RB4, some new instruments for FY17 and another deal with a major and a few momentum stock guys jumping in. Sure lots of IFS and ANDS but certainly possible. Cheers.
I've been buying about 50k shares each week. If you didn't sell about 15cents, why on Earth wouldn't you be buying no?. VirTra the company is doing great, VTSI the stock is selling for 1/3rd of fair value.
One way or another VTSI will trade above 30 cents within a year or two. Perhaps as early as this Thanksgiving, perhaps as late as 2017 via buyout.
Well stated. I also own shares and recently added a few more. Another reason I like this stock, company, and sector is because it is a bit of a hedge against a faltering economy.
I'll take a stab at it....Because nothing is guaranteed, 100% certain. It is the same reason why "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush." If you pheasant or grouse hunt, you'll understand the truth in that statement. It is the same reason why I bought some PNNT and NRZ and BAC and BP and a couple others just after the open on Monday. None of those stocks are going to double any time soon, yet I was relatively sure I could make 3 - 10% within a few days. So, even though I was certain MCZ is a 5 - 10 bagger from this level, I still temporarily deployed a few dollars elsewhere to grab the low hanging fruit. While we all know MCZ will trade well over $3 in calendar 2016, we do not know if it will be in January or June or December......so might as well wait to buy until the day before it goes up.
b_fr_nk, I actually DO admire your approach of going "all in" in a stock in which you believe. Over the years, I continue to migrate more and more in that direction. It does make one's portfolio immune to market fluctuations and in some ways eliminates the worry. Also increases the likelihood of big big gains in one's wealth. I hope you are 100% correct on this one.
.....so your 710,000 shares of MCZ are/is the only money you have "in the stock market"........really? I had always thought you were a heavy hitter/deep-pockets/many many millions o dollars man. Now I'm sad.
Added more shares of PNNT, NRZ, BP, VTSI earlier today. Will likely add more HPT but didn't yet.
Good time to get into VTSI, someone has about 350k shares sitting for the taking at 8 cents.
That would be an AWESOME question to ask at the early Sept shareholder meeting. Hope someone actually can attend and ASK QUESTIONS and report back. Last several years the number of shareholder attendees was ZERO according to IR buffoons.
There is no way to know Razer's profitability with 100% certainty. But based on their products and shelf space and marketing AND #employees verses revenue AND corporate structure.....I would be willing to bet they are NOT PROFITABLE.
While there are a handful of stupidly overpriced big name stocks, there are also literally 500 - 1000 undervalued stocks. Many of these are trading at EV/EBITDA sub-5 and sub-3 and sub-1! and some at even less than true net cash on hand. There has never been a better time for a stock picker to be picking up truly undervalued stocks. There has never been a better time for a dividend picker to be cherry picking dividend stocks. So while the market is currently being stupid, there is no way that will persist. Cheap oil, cheap steel, cheap gasoline, cheap energy is putting real money into the hands of consumers. While painful for the energy sector, it is good for everyone else....including stocks like MCZ.
My only other comment is that people forget that the market has gone NOWHERE for the last 15 years! It is the same price today as then, yet profits and balance sheets and management is all in better shape.
Good times ahead. 100% certainty.
That is interesting and shows one what is possible in terms of MCZ valuation. Razor has approx. 3X the employees and approx. 3X the revenue....even though Razor is viewed as up/coming great growth and MAd Catz is in a trough! Company is valued at about 3.5X revenue. (And if you believe Razor is more profitable than Mad Catz then you are truly out of your mind.)
Mad Catz will have current year revenue of $150 - $250mil. Apply a 3.5X multiplier on $180mil and the company is worth $630mil or about $9 per share. Or look at it this way, a company like Razor with such a rich valuation would be silly not to buy Mad Catz at valuations up to about 2X revenue.
"MCZ....the 20 bagger I could have had".....someone on this board will be saying that in a year or two.
In my opinion they cannot buy right now as they are obviously in possession of material non-public info, namely the actual order and pre-order numbers for RB4.
Things usually don't play out exactly as we all expect. All I know is the most powerful emotion is greed. As the stock crosses $1 there will be buyers, as it crosses $2 even more buyers, ditto for $3, $4, $5......There are many who would not even think of buying a penny stock, but put a price of $4 on it and they will buy with no worries. There are many who will only buy when momentum shows the clear path is up. Many others will look at the $80+mil Q3 and extend that for 4 quarters and happily buy KNOWING it is undervalued. Mad Catz will likely paint a picture so rosy by March that even some of us on this board will become believers.
You are right though, the real game is just starting. Fun times ahead.
Probably about 80% of retail buyers never read a board like this. Makes me feel they are the smart ones and I'm in the stupid 20% group.