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Metalico Inc. Message Board

uptabdowntab 318 posts  |  Last Activity: 43 minutes ago Member since: Jul 1, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Pretty astounding on oh so many levels...

    by uptabdowntab 2 hours 9 minutes ago
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab 43 minutes ago Flag

    Also, as others have mentioned, MCZ right now seems to be completely at the mercy of retail investors. The CEO owns 2%, other insiders own another 2 or 3%. Institutions and funds about zero. Shorted shares are so very low (about 10,000 total shares shorted).

    Eventually, all the weak holders will have given up.....like someone did today with 150 - 200k shares. Then the company announces the results they have told us to expect (a profitable Q3 on higher revenue than year ago). And up up and away goes the stock.

    Sort of nice to see the sellers shares get snapped up so easily today. With many stocks, dropping the equivalent of one day's volume in the span of 20 minutes would cause a 50% drop. Just tells me that eyes are watching. Just need someone to yell GO.

  • MCZ is trading at less than 7X free cash flow, trailing twelve months!

    Sort of neat how now that the company is all cleaned up from a financial and balance sheet perspective that one can look at valuing it in many traditional ways typically applied to good solid companies. PS, PE (soon), Cash Flow, EV.

    Then consider.....Look how fast IFON went from 1 to 1.7, MEA from .25 to .60, VTSI from .05 to .17.

    It will happen fro MCZ as well. Cheers and keep the Faith.

  • Reply to

    Someone pulled the trigger

    by norwalkron 2 hours 46 minutes ago
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab 2 hours 34 minutes ago Flag

    It wasn't a market sell. He/she was using a limit and kept on chasing the bid by lowering his/her ask every minute or so. Did about 50k-60k shares 3X this way. Someone simply gave up. Means nothing. Although, I admit I had to buy a few of them.

  • Reply to

    longs

    by bargainhunter880 Jan 26, 2015 10:26 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab 3 hours ago Flag

    I'm not 100% certain. I just went back and reread the cc notes. Right before he said that, there is an error in the transcript, "wrap" is used rather than "ramp". My take is it simply means the transition to the newer programs is going a little quicker than expected and is happening across multiple programs.

    Since Hutch is the new kid on the block and is only qual'd in the newer programs, I think this is a plus for Hutch since volume will ramp sooner rather than later.

    As an aside, pretty cool that Seagate CEO said this current quarter is the low point and June quarter will be up relative to March quarter. That's a little unusual and bodes well. So do his comments about more heads per drive and the complexity of these machines. That is good for Hutch as well.

  • Reply to

    Don't you love that.....

    by hopeful200 5 hours ago
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab 3 hours ago Flag

    Well done gents! I'm sorry to say I never bought. I am happy for all of you though. It is always good to see money being made. Pretty cool how these sorts of stocks can go up 2X, 5X, or more in a heartbeat. Bodes well for some of our other common holdings.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab 5 hours ago Flag

    Neither one will fall far. About 5 or 6 years ago, both companies made the decision ....."if Wall Street isn't going to value us correctly, we will force them to, so F-off Wall Street." What did they each decide to do? Very simple and a lesson for every public company BOD and CEO. They decided to return cash directly to shareholders. Enormous amounts of cash. Relentlessly. Seagate has reduced outstanding shares from something like 550million to 320million and still dropping. Seagate has increased the dividend from ZERO to over $2 per share and it will take another big bump up soon. WDC has done the same. Seagate has gone from $3 to $60 and WDC a similar move. Funny thing is, they are both still undervalued. They are now strong dividend payers that could each double their divs as they generate $4bil in free cash flow every year.

    The guidance Seagate provided is bullish for Hutch. WDC guidance will be bullish as well.

  • tomorrow, cc tomorrow, shareholder meeting on Thursday morning!

  • Reply to

    HEAR at historic lows

    by dotthalliday 6 hours ago
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab 5 hours ago Flag

    HEAR should be trading lower than MCZ. And I don't think HEAR is even worth 25 cents.

    Look at the revenue trend.
    Look at the cash flow from operations every year, they are bleeding cash at a rapid rate.
    Look at the debt.
    Look at the narrow niche product line.
    Their PS is still 2X MCZ

    In short, HEAR is going down the tubes at a rapid rate. Every financial metric for them is tanking, mostly due to really terrible financial management.

    MCZ is the exact opposite. Improving balance sheet, generating tons of cash each year, debt going down, revenues rising, bottom line profits, broader more diversified products, a "retail" strategy that makes sense in this day and age - online, profitable, and on and on.

    If HEAR is worth $1, MCZ is worth $3.

  • Reply to

    longs

    by bargainhunter880 Jan 26, 2015 10:26 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab 21 hours ago Flag

    "Maybe there's come cultural....."

    That was funny. But seriously, how many USA high school grads are proficient in the English language? How many college grads? Then, if you are good with English, are you also savvy enough to understand and explain hi tech stuff? I don't think there is any cultural opposition. In fact, I would say the opposite is true. There just are not enough technical writers in the world. Usually the task falls back to an engineer or marketing application engineer or that sort of chap.

    My dinner good toonite.

  • Reply to

    Tim to Monetize TA

    by jonathanverenger Jan 26, 2015 1:38 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab 21 hours ago Flag

    "a volatile asset".......You are completely out of your mind. TA is far less volatile than any other asset held by HPT. It is the foundation. It is the key building block. It is a cash generating machine during strong economies and weak. Look at the history of TA payments. I rest my case.

    The only reason I own HPT is because of TA. I traded TA a few times in the past and simply got sick of all the money they were always paying to HPT. So, now I own HPT and feel great about it.

  • Reply to

    longs

    by bargainhunter880 Jan 26, 2015 10:26 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 26, 2015 3:45 PM Flag

    ....Supply constraints also have the added benefit of shifting allocation percentages. So as long as Hutch has capacity, they will benefit. It would be nice to go from (for example), 50/50 allocation to 75/25.

  • Reply to

    longs

    by bargainhunter880 Jan 26, 2015 10:26 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 26, 2015 3:44 PM Flag

    And there is nothing quite like supply constraints to speed up quals on new and existing programs!

    And there is nothing quite like .......to help raise prices at least a wee bit!

  • Reply to

    longs

    by bargainhunter880 Jan 26, 2015 10:26 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 26, 2015 3:36 PM Flag

    Well said. And from earlier Hutch cc's it was crystal clear that the program(s) they were qualified on at Seagate were at least a couple of the enterprise ones. For those who are intelligence challenged, those are the drives that go to the cloud market. Those programs continue to ramp quarter after quarter at Seagate. That said, hopefully Hutch is currently in quals on some of the other programs at Seagate as well.

  • Reply to

    longs

    by bargainhunter880 Jan 26, 2015 10:26 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 26, 2015 11:22 AM Flag

    cc, You are very likely correct. I really wonder if anyone actually reads the reports anymore. The Seagate report was a beautiful thing. Even the forward guidance was really good, but about $150,000 below analysts guesses......which is about nothing for a company selling several billion worth of product every quarter. The main driver for Seagate was simply some minor currency misses due to strong dollar and some weakness in retail Europe. None of this impacts Hutch because it is probable that the only programs Hutch is on at Seagate at this moment are some of the enterprise ones. That business is rock solid and is where all the growth resides due to the cloud storage move. Congrats on the 3.19 buy!

  • have their heads examined. VTSI is a great buy on its own merits. VTSI is also a great buy because it might be purchased by Taser. It would make a ton of sense, would be immediately accretive to TASR, and both corporate headquarters are only 20 miles apart! Yes, I own VTSI shares. It is worth 3X current price, strong revenue growth, very profitable, no debt, millions in cash, visionary seasoned excellent CEO, strong 10 year track record of profitable growth. Sorry this sounds like an infomercial. Do your research and make a decision. Cheers.

  • Reply to

    Modern round

    by srowe38 Jan 25, 2015 1:34 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 25, 2015 6:13 PM Flag

    Saturation is decades away if ever. Just in my tiny Wisconsin, there are 72 county sheriff's depts. and another 600 - 800 city/village police depts. There are perhaps 3 cities capable of supporting a Modern Round. There are numerous (30?) large UW and private campuses and tech schools and police academies that could use a VirTra simulator. Multiply this by 50 states. Then multiply that by about 50 countries. Potential market is huge.

    Then you have the whole recurring revenue stream from each purchase. Hardware upgrades, screen upgrades, software upgrades, and most importantly...scenario upgrades.

    All that said, you raise a good point. With 158mil shares, even a 1/2Billion market cap is only a $3+ share price. This is why I feel SO strongly that EVEN NOW and ESPECIALLY NOW (share price still low) Virtra should be buying back and retiring shares. Even if they would only use $100,000 or so each quarter to do so, the impact would be ENORMOUS on several levels. Tells us their stock is a great investment. Tells the world it is a great investment. Says they care about shareholder value. Says the outstanding share count is ONLY GOING TO STEADILY DECREASE. Right now, $100,000 would take the share count down by 500,000 shares. This is significant.

    I know there are some good arguments against doing this. My point is this is just one arrow in the quiver of many that need to be deployed to grow the company and share price.

  • Reply to

    Theory on that sellig dip today....

    by hopeful200 Jan 23, 2015 7:10 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 24, 2015 4:04 PM Flag

    Interesting theories and I am more in Hopeful's camp. The seller was small (relatively few shares), the seller was unsophisticated (used a market sell), the seller was sort of "spur of the moment" since there were zero shares listed at any ASK price between .1725 and .18. I think a guy with a 100k or 200k shares simply happened to check his VTSI stock and said...."holy s, decent price, I'm in the green, sick of holding for 2 years or 10 years, good bye shares". None of this really matters, but fun to speculate.

    The one thing that has puzzled me about VTSI stock for many years now is why the trading volumes are always so low? With 158mil shares outstanding, one would think that avg volume would be at least 3mil every day. This is especially true now that the stock is starting to move. I would love to see a profile for the top 20 owners of this stock. Are they all old white retired golf guys living in AZ that have a few shares of VTSI as part of a huge portfolio so they just ignore it? I'm sure Ferris is at the top of the list with about 15million shares (at least I think that is the number, but not sure). And then I wonder why some sort of hedge guy or private equity guy hasn't latched on and driven this up to crazy high high's.

    I often go through the exercise of figuring out what I think VirTra is really worth. Apply a Taser PS of 8-ish on 2015 revenue and you get $1/share. Apply a super conservative PS of 1 and you get 13 cents. I believe VTSI has sales of $20mil in 2015, EPS of 2 cents, exits the year with $3mil net cash and a very bright 2016 outlook. Seems to me that should be worth a PS of 3 which would be a 38cent share price or a PE of 25 which would be a 50cent share price.

    Bottom line, 17 cents is still way to cheap for this company.

  • Reply to

    Thoughts

    by invetruth Jan 22, 2015 4:19 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 23, 2015 3:02 PM Flag

    I didn't think it was humanly possible to type something as stupid as what you typed. You cannot possibly believe the slant you put on things. Please short the stock, as much as you can, you will be wealthy. Cheers.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 23, 2015 2:37 PM Flag

    BECAUSE IF IT IS THEN SOMEONE IS GOING TO JAIL. I have an email chain where I am told point blank that MadCatz has the exact same number of outstanding shares today as at the end of Q2. They also explicitly said the shelf has not been used. It was CRYSTAL clear.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 23, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    You really do show your true colors with a garbage post like that. You know d well it is not Mad Catz selling shares. Why are you even here? You are not short, you are not long, you will never buy shares at any price. Whatever dude.

MEA
0.65-0.12(-15.58%)Jan 27 4:04 PMEST

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