were reading The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas? If so, Thank you. I bought it and read it and have to say it was one of the most interesting books I've ever read. Perhaps the best book ever written....in a weird sort of way. It probably will not help me much in the way I invest but I sure will start looking at many things in a new light. Fascinating read, it is worth the $30 bucks.
...and always the chance the Hutch market share goes well beyond 33%, perhaps 40% or more if Hutch quality, performance, and price are the best.
Per recent STX, WDC results and Mark Miller (analyst) interview, TAM (total available market) for HDD (hard disk drives) is about 142million per quarter. So.....
142mil drives x 3.2 heads/drive / .97 susp yield = 468million suspensions need to ship each quarter from Hutch plus Magnecomp plus NHK. So with last quarters Hutch ships of 113mil we can assume they have a market share of about 24%.
Now, the beautiful things are these: TAM is growing, The number of heads per drive is growing, Hutch market share is growing due to program wins at Seagate and WDC.
Now, what are the numbers going to look like in perhaps 18-24months when Hutch has 33.3% of the market, perhaps something like this: 155mil drives x 3.4 heads/drive / .97 x .3333 = 181million ships for Hutch per quarter. This will be about $105mil in revenue per quarter or about $420mil per year. EPS will be way way north of $1/share.
Look at the last 6 quarters, it has already started to happen in front of our very eyes, yet the wall street brainiacs are blind. This is a gift to all of us who are willing to buy shares.
Probably between 2.99 and 0....probably a bad day for a joke if your question was serious. 2.90ish looks like a pretty strong support level to me. 3.00 is nothing in terms of support or resistance. Keep adding shares, the stock is disconnected from the company. The company is fine, the stock is ill.
I think what they were trying to say is that among the 3 analysts that cover the stock, they have raised estimates just as often as they have lowered them.
head much higher within a month or two. Strong ebitda, decent cash generation, now is the time to buy in this sort of cyclical industry. The analyst estimate (there is only 1) is not worth a thing since it has been woefully out of date for months. By year end, I would guess we have several analysts on board.
Don't let the bashers scare you, use your own eyes, ears, and brain.
I added yesterday at .505....and I'm happy!.....just not very happy. Cheers. If you want to feel even better, take a look at the price & volume chart for MCZ over the 6 - 12 months....MCZ is going much higher.
Nope, not a freudian slip. I meant what I said. What I meant was....it seems possible to me that someone like WDC or Seagate or NHK or a PE group buys Hutch and integrates it into a larger company or combines it with another competitor. If that were to happen, it will be when everything is oh so rosy in the industry and it will be at a very high price. We (HTCH owners) would all be happy.
Sort of neat, you can now buy HTCH shares at prices below recent insider buy.
I added more today as well. Feeling good.
I think they will report positive EPS for the upcoming Apr/May/June quarter. I agree with you that the stock price action does little to instill confidence. About all we can do about it is use it as an opportunity. HTCH shares will be much much higher later this year and double digits in CY2015.
The ramp in volume has taken longer than I expected but it is entirely due to Seagate and WDC ramps and not Hutch. But have no fear, the ramp is happening (just look at the sequential Q over Q ship growth for the last 6 or so quarters) and ship volumes will continue to grow (though current Jan/Feb/Mar Q will likely be below last quarter but up a lot verses the year ago). Hutch market share (in a growing market) will continue to go up and up and will likely exceed even 33% within 2 years. They are only at 24ish% now. With profits looming, yet analyst estimates badly lagging, HTCH stock is setting up for a powerful multi-year run. Even $25/share is not out of the question within 2 or 3 years. Perhaps all time highs if/when NHK or Magnecomp or Hutch go away. Keep the faith.
In my opinion, a non-issue. I am a named inventor on 5 patents for a two different companies in two different industries and have worked with way too many lawyers. This sort of thing will cost Mad Catz a few hours of attorney time but that's about it. Even if it is pursued to the full extent of the law it would never end up in court for several more years and with these sorts of short-life (relatively) products with ever changing features no one is going to spend much money pushing the issue from either side. It will go away cheaply one way or the other.
Hi llewellynlord, I simply registered and listened live from the comfort of my couch 1 foot away from my bird dog and 3 feet away from my wood stove! DR's preso took about 25 minutes so there was only time for about 3 or 4 questions because they ended it promptly at exactly 5:30pm central time. The questions that I could hear didn't add much and I have no clue how many were in attendance. You can listen to a complete replay along with the 25 powerpoint slides on the Mad Catz web site.
I added a few more shares at 51 cents today and feel real good about it.
from the lips of Mr. Darren. Said several times the growth trajectory will begin with the upcoming Jul/Aug/Sep quarter and continue strongly thereafter. Mentioned being profitable in the upcoming FY starting in 3 weeks in April. Mentioned the companies "low valuation" a couple times with a strong inference that it is silly low (my words) but implied that would be-a-changin with the upcoming growth and profitability.
Overall, I liked it. The stage is set. Good time to buy more. Be patient and your reward will be great in much less than one year. Cheers......now, wtheck was micro talking about?
Most important part of today's PR was Darren's statement that Mad Catz will be growing and profitable in the fiscal year starting April 1st! Soon, what all of us longs know for sure, will start to sink in among the key fund managers, PE dudes, private deep-pocketed retail guys, and hedgies of the world. Cheers.