Yep, good points all around. One of these days the right investors are going to wake up and start buying. Until then I'd even be happy if some sort of hype machine hedge fund stock pumpin yahoos started driving this up to the stratosphere. Merry Christmas!
Some posts are interesting and some are INTERESTING! Thank you identiv2015 as yours falls into the latter category.
the close, about 55k shares. Someone has been scooping it up in discrete decent sized chunks the last few days. I just wish a market maker was so cooperative with me when I want to buy or sell something.
That is a truly great point. It is another example of Mad Catz seeing something before the rest of us. It is why they are investing in the "stars" of the sport and/or turning the great performers into "stars". Same thing Nascar decided to do a decade ago.
Just my two bits on valuation...
- Very few companies are not worth at least a PS=1 when they are bought out.
- Mad Catz EPS likely to be in the 15-20 cent range for the FY starting April 1st.
- Mad Catz outlook one year from now will be even more bullish/optimistic.
Apply any sort of reasonable PS or PE or EV/EBITDA multiple on those sorts of numbers and .......we all do pretty well from todays 45 cent stock price.
Great post and dead-on accurate. The only way I can continue to hold is to look at it as you described AND also look at the big macro moves the company has made in the last couple years to position themselves to capitalize on the macro environment.
Big aggressive moves like....
-Relentless and steady and great improvement on the balance sheet.
-Shifting away from US bricks/mortar to a more profitable online sales model.
-Helping force/shape the new world order of mobile devices with MOJO effort.
-Deciding to partner with Amazon and set up the funding of product so as not to deplete Mad Catz resources.
-Execs buying MCZ shares in open market
You also get many bonus points for using the word "ennui".
jxenge, What is your best guess as to when we might hear some sort of update from Hutch with respect to OIS?
I still look at Hutch and HTCH from the perspective that at the current price we are buying the HDD operation for a super low price and getting the OIS operation for free. It just puzzles me as to why the stock isn't pushing $10 at this point. I know part of it is due to the still crummy market for tiny company stocks and part is due to a "show me first" mentality due to past mis-steps. Cheers.
You're right, I do like "local" companies, especially in the Twin Cities area. That area really has a vibrant economy and many companies understand how to get a really good valuation on their stock.
ETRM - I am clueless about how to evaluate that sort of company, meaning one in development stage without revenue yet. It might turn out to be the greatest thing ever and be a 10 or 20 bagger, I just don't know how to study it or analyze it or weigh risk/reward or likelihood of success. The fact that it is in St. Paul does help because these sort of small start up or developing medical companies have a strong history of success in MN.
Thanks for mentioning it to me. It is one I had never looked at before. I will try to do some more studying and reading and see if I can convince myself to buy some.
I was going to pen this reply on the ETRM message board but was sort of shocked to see all the traffic over there and figured it would be too easy to miss. That alone was a surprise to me and makes me want to dig a bit deeper.
....and 4 months from today, we can confidently say "Next FY EPS will be 25 cents". That's FY17 for those of you proficient with a calendar and knowledge of Mad Catz FY start April 1st.
Will he ever run out? The only difference between now and a week or two ago is that there is a bit of buying interest to absorb the shares. Just like clockwork, he dumped another 25k shares today. It has happened every day for weeks now.
That is a really nice find. Seems possible/probable. If true, I would guess we wake up to a really nice PR from Hutch and PRs from Cambridge on January 5 or 6 (I doubt they would issue the PRs between Christmas and NYears).
If true, the contribution to revenue for Q1 should be very noticeable in the financials. Foxconn doesn't mess around with any low volume stuff.
Best case PR would be one that says....xyxyxxy started selling/shipping smartphones on xx/yy/zz. Early feedback very positive. We are also announcing several addition smartphone wins that will result in a strong volume ramp. Then....Since we now have some visibility to OIS in the current FY, we are providing the following guidance....xx Mil in revenue and positive contribution to EPS. Lastly, due to stronger than expected demand in Q1, we expect our HDD ships to come in above the previous guidance.
Should be a strong start to 2015 for HTCH stock.
The only good thing in the PR is they were rather specific when they said "60 days". That is far better than "later next year" or something fuzzy. That said, this thing really does smell like a scam and the PR reads like one (other than the 60 days) with the mention of the huge potential market.
I own shares at a far higher price so I hope there is really something to it. I remember listening to their interview many months ago when they merged and I came away thinking it is probably legit. So I hope it really is. 60 days from now we will know.
I think the EPS for Q3 is going to get many people's attention and the Revenue AND positive EPS for Q4 are going to get everyone's attention.
Last year, Q4 was 20.2 million.
I really believe it is possible that Mad Catz will have positive EPS for every quarter for the next several years starting with the current Q3. I also believe YOY Revenue comparisons will be positive for the next 10 or 12 quarters as well.
Some day in 2015 we will look back at 42 cents and laugh.
Some day in 2016 we will look back at the 2.00 plateau in 2015 and wonder why we didn't buy more.
Some day in 2017 we will look back at the 2016 $6.00 peak and wonder why we didn't sell it all.
Merry Christmas All.
None of this matters, but nothing else to do so what the heck......This is the way it is viewed:
Advantage of Wireless: Easier set up, Looks better/wires ugly, Wires knock your drink over, You can move about easier. More reliable since no mechanical connections. No power supply/outlets to worry about.
Advantage of Wires: I believe you get a better response (no delays) and more reliability with wires, however, you said the specs were the same. No batteries to mess with.
I admit you likely know more about this stuff than me. I should have just shut up. Cheers and buy some shares.....Please.
No, you didn't increase sales. Someone sees two boxes side x side in the store or on the website, one is wireless and one is wired, price is the same (per your scenario).....the buyer will buy the wireless one 99% of the time.
The current Q3 will blow that out of the water....my current guess is $46mil. It will be nice to see the headline "Mad Catz Revenue up 40% with Improved Margins."