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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

uptabdowntab 360 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 4 minutes ago Member since: Jul 1, 1998
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  • Not one person on this message board (including Joe and Norberto and maybe even Darren and Alex) know ANYTHING about future MCZ stock performance. This has been proven year after year after year. Bulls like me have been proven wrong countless times. Bears like meifud have been proven wrong countless times. The bears only show up when there is blood in the water and "after the fact"....when MCZ stock is already circling the tank. Both Bulls and Bears are eventually proven "correct" simply because a broken clock is right twice a day, no other reason.

    I think all of us simply have to admit that MCZ is completely disconnected from Mad Catz. We have to admit that DR feels once per quarter communication with shareholders (via cc) is enough (and if I were him, I would also think that is enough).

    We also should simply admit that sometimes the simplest most obvious answer is the correct one......MCZ went down because there were more sellers than buyers, Mad Catz issued the shelf because they believe better times are ahead and they want to be ready for whatever opportunities that brings (meaning a capital raise when the stock is significantly higher). Admit that MCZ is not unique in the stock market, anyone here who follows many other small companies can name a dozen examples of stocks that have performed even worse during the last couple months, and they too have good balance sheets, growing revenues, and are profitable.

    Will MCZ ever rise above $2 again? Of course, look at the 15 year chart.

    I feel better when I don't ready this board....so off to the treestand I go.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab 3 hours ago Flag

    Please share.....especially the "means" part.

  • Reply to

    Counter intuitive

    by llewellynlord 3 hours ago
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab 3 hours ago Flag

    Just walked in the door....geez, what a ugly day all around. Not sure if this was discussed or not, but many microcap stocks are being hammered down hard today....the Russell 2000 is down well over 1%. A company like TA announced great results and profits and is down 15%, a little gold miner CLGRF is down 10%, and several more in the same boat.

    With MCZ, it is (as always) more weird than anything else. Yes, 1.4mil shares have traded but the number of trades appears very small, several 100k share chunks make up the bulk. Suggests to me only one or two sellers and one or two buyers. Sure a few of us continue to nibble but I doubt if that is what we are seeing.

    The company needs to talk right now about what their plans are, even if it is just to restate what DR said in the last couple presentations and cc.

  • Reply to

    S3 can only mean one thing.

    by sgjerry_3230 Sep 28, 2014 8:15 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Sep 28, 2014 5:18 PM Flag

    vtsi....likely me, I've been beating that drum for a few years....finally starting to move, and for all the right reasons.

    My first reaction to the S3 was disgust and "you've got to be kidding me." But the more I've thought about it, the more I like it. I believe DR with his 1.2mil shares and countless options (many above current share price) and other officers with the recent option grants at 56 cents and insider buys over the last year or two are going to do very well with whatever breaks.....and you and I will go along for the ride.

    I always want to see a company err on the side of action rather than inaction.....unless they are already going great.

    How soon does everyone think we are going to hear more details? Sept 30?, Oct 1? Early Nov earnings release? When?

  • uptabdowntab by uptabdowntab Sep 28, 2014 10:34 AM Flag

    First, let me preface this by saying I believe VirTra is correctly focused on what is MOST important. Running the business and continue growing revenue and earnings. They already have a very good track record for the 3 most important things...revenue growth, earnings, strong balance sheet.

    This is my WISH list of further improvements the company should (and likely will) be making:

    1. Begin to provide some sort of forward guidance when you release earnings. It doesn't need to be xx revenue and yy EPS. It can be statements such as ...."We expect FY15 revenue levels above those of FY14 with growth in earnings and net cash." Even reminding shareholders and potential shareholders of the lumpiness in Q to Q results is just fine, but do provide some sort of guidance.

    2. Begin to talk about uplisting to the OTC from the current pink sheets. Talk a bit about the requirements, how most have already been met, and the timeframe and pros/cons of this sort of uplisting.

    3. Begin to schedule a cc with earnings release and offer a Q&A. Even if you simply start be taking pre-submitted questions or address FAQ that Rudy Miller hears, that would be a great start and appreciated by all.

    4. When you do receive a large order, talk about when the revenue will be received, approx. how much in each quarter. Again, just provide a bit of guidance.

    5. I know some agree with this and some do not, by I firmly believe that allocating a small amount of money each quarter to buy back and retire shares is SUPER IMPORTANT. By small amount, I mean about $100,000 per quarter....this would have a meaningful impact on the 158mil outstanding shares within a few years. Just please start chipping away. Please.

    Cheers All. Company is worth multiples more than 11 cents ($17million).

  • the coming news is good. Also might imply any future dilution will be at a higher price. I guess when all is said and done, I like Hopeful's take on all this.....that there is far more to suggest good news than bad news.

  • Reply to

    Looks like it's ready to really launch

    by hopeful200 Sep 25, 2014 3:06 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Sep 26, 2014 1:54 PM Flag

    I like your ".10 is the new .05". Hopefully it doesn't last as long.

    Sort of doubt anyone is "onto this now", even today the volume is only 700k shares.....only $70,000 worth. When the volume is 20,000,000 shares per day and we are going back and forth between 40 and 60 cents.....then they are onto this.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Sep 26, 2014 1:16 PM Flag

    Yes, both possible and legal. As micro said, it does sometimes happen since trying to buy a ton in the open market simply is not feasible as the stock would run to astronomical heights.....and then the company would not benefit since nothing would hit their balance sheet. How likely is this? Not very in my opinion.

    Although one can make a case this is why the stock price has been driven into the toilet, makes us all the more receptive to 50 cents or 60 cents or 70 cents or whatever.

  • Reply to

    Hypothetical...

    by microcaptrader Sep 26, 2014 12:26 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Sep 26, 2014 12:57 PM Flag

    Sidoti estimate for this FY (that is now half over) is EPS=6cents. PE=8 at this moment.

  • Reply to

    Hypothetical...

    by microcaptrader Sep 26, 2014 12:26 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Sep 26, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    .....and another thing, if Mad Catz has some great wonderful opportunity staring them in the face that requires some money, then do it in the smartest way possible.....when your stock price is in the toilet (PS below 1, PE below 10) you don't use it as currency. Walk into a bank and make your case and if it really is a great opportunity then someone will loan you the money on pretty great terms. I'm an absolute nobody and I can walk into any bank and get a commercial loan for $5million at sub-5%. Simple.

  • Reply to

    Hypothetical...

    by microcaptrader Sep 26, 2014 12:26 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Sep 26, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    I cannot believe anyone at Mad Catz would be stupid enough to sell shares at anywhere near the current share price. That would be (in my opinion) insanity.....and the end result would be lots of lawsuits and CEO and CFO going to prison for a long time. All just my opinion.

  • Reply to

    Analysts....or lack thereof

    by uptabdowntab Sep 25, 2014 9:18 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Sep 26, 2014 9:22 AM Flag

    Well stated disk_investor2.

    Not sure I agree with the small potatoes over the next year. Cetainly small potatoes now, but for the FY starting Oct 1 it could be significant (noticeable) to both revenue and EPS. Lets say (pure uneducated guess) Hutch OIS shipments for next FY are 3mil, 7mil, 10mil, 20mil per quarter.....that would be $100mil in revenue and probably 25 cents EPS. What I don't know is whether these volume guesses are wildly low or wildly high.

  • uptabdowntab by uptabdowntab Sep 25, 2014 9:18 PM Flag

    In general, I don't think too much of the average analyst. Seems to me most are tools with ulterior motives that are often misaligned with the average retail investor.

    That said, I do find it interesting and surprising that none of them have tweaked their estimates to take into account Hutch's OIS efforts. Or maybe the analysts were/are so good and tuned in that their numbers already have this baked in for next FY.

    I guess these guys are in the same boat as the rest of us. Perhaps no one outside of Cambridge and Hutch know the pace at which OIS will ramp or take-hold in the smartphone market. I was encouraged to see a commercial during tonight's football game for the larger Iphone6 where they touted it having "image stabilization". I know, it is still likely the old VCM technology, but I like the fact that at least Apple sees it as a marketable/sellable feature. That bodes well.

    Just wasting time.....

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Sep 25, 2014 6:54 PM Flag

    ceedan, Hi there, by the way, you are a piece of garbage. SPDC issued a shelf reg when the stock was in the 40 cent range, the stock went up and up and up and eventually they executed on the shelf when the stock was multiples higher. More recently, INVE issued more shares after the stock ran from 6 to 21, they issued at 15. Point being, not a snowball's chance in H that MCZ issues more shares with their stock at 50 cents. The shelf simply gives them that future option, it might never happen or maybe will happen when the stock is several dollars and they want to do something big. Simply smart business to have this registered. Most every public company does. Grow up.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Sep 25, 2014 4:52 PM Flag

    It is GREAT news, they know that over the next year the stock is going to run much higher and they want to have a shelf in place to take advantage when we are overpriced at $5 to $10 next year.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Sep 25, 2014 4:44 PM Flag

    I think you have this exactly backward. If it is shelf, that is a spectacularly good thing because it means the stock is poised to run up several dollars and then when it is $3 or $4 they will sell 5million shares for $3.50 and EVERYONE will be happy. Rock on.

  • Reply to

    Looks like it's ready to really launch

    by hopeful200 Sep 25, 2014 3:06 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Sep 25, 2014 4:26 PM Flag

    Interesting. It is always helpful to see how others view something. I've been so close to it for so long that sometimes I miss important things.

    The one thing I've always wondered with this stock is "who owns all the shares?" The reason I wonder(ed) is that trading volumes have been so low for so long and that never made sense to me. Even now, we struggle to achieve trading volume of 1% of outstanding shares. I know the CEO owns something like either 6million or 6.6million shares which is about 4% so that's a good thing. Maybe the other 96% is just people like you and I?

    Take care....I'm off to the woods and water for a few days.

  • Reply to

    Volume

    by tracant Sep 25, 2014 3:14 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Sep 25, 2014 3:44 PM Flag

    Not me. No buying for several days now....and obviously no selling since I believe it is going multiples higher.

  • Reply to

    Looks like it's ready to really launch

    by hopeful200 Sep 25, 2014 3:06 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Sep 25, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    Question for you hopeful......I know you've followed VirTra for at least some period of time and are a great numbers/balance sheet guy with lots of investing/trading savvy. Where do you see VTSI trading over the next 6 - 12 months? Or maybe a more fair question is where do you see it trading between now and late May? I use late May because Q1 should be announced in mid-May and it should be spectacular.

    Any insight/guesses appreciated.

  • Reply to

    Looks like it's ready to really launch

    by hopeful200 Sep 25, 2014 3:06 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Sep 25, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    Agree...and nice to have a big green one today.

ACI
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