You did well on the last micro-mini spike but then you got caught without any shares and are too stubborn to buy. That's about what always happens to flippers.
In the interest of amusing the readers, you should tell us all "your life story." Do you really live in Hutchinson? Did Hutch Tech really downsize you 7 years ago? Why are you so old? That sort of stuff.
I messed around for an hour or two with a variety of buy orders (all 25k orders down to 5k orders), bottom line is that if you want to actually buy shares you better enter it "at the market". If you put in a specific limit between the bid/ask it ain't gonna happen. You get one-upped by .0001 or some stupid number. Just don't do the at the market thing with more than about 20k or 30k shares. The price isn't going to stay here very long.
I do not believe you. If you really are an excited long, then why rip on the company and the stock and raise stupid questions?
To answer your question, Yes I really do believe it goes far above $3. Just think for a moment: Current year revenue will be $200million, EPS will be 25 cents. Any reasonable PS or PE gets you into the $3 - $5 range. Then factor in a balance sheet that is debt free and heavy with cash.
I fully expect another big deal from Mad Catz to be announced next Summer. Doors have been opened. So then you have an outlook for next FY which will support $300mil or more in rev and EPS of 40 - 45 cents.......and there you have $8.27 in August, 2016.
All of todays flipper will be long gone....and still poor.
for the company and the stock to be in a better place? Everything is beautiful right now.
MCZ is trading beautifully. Chart is picture perfect. Every large volume order is a buy. Every pullback or sideways action is on minimal volume. 50dMA and 200dMA are beautiful.
MCZ from a PS, PE, EV/EBITDA perspective based on current FY revenue and EPS is extremely undervalued. PS sub .25, PE of 3, EV/EBITDA sub 4. No place to go but up for the stock.
Mad Catz has a great product for the holiday season and beyond. They launched it smart, early enough to gage demand, early enough to turn inventory and ensure adequate supply for Thanksgiving and Xmas. Financially they maximized their opportunity.
The little bit of analyst coverage is far far underestimating revenue and earnings. There will be new coverage and upgrades.
When MCZ crosses $3 or $4, avg volume will be 2mil per day. That sort of liquidity will pull in even more momo guys and the sky is the limit.....BUT BUT BUT, it is all underpinned nicely by revenue and earnings and revenue growth and earnings growth.
logic, You sound like a sharp investor, thanks for creating the new moniker and joining the discussion. If I were you, I would use all available ammo to short this stock. It will be a big payday for you. Cheers.
"the medical product....looks good on paper but...."
The medical product never looked good on paper and never made any sense. Take a look at exactly what the OIS product is, you can see it on the Hutch and Cambridge websites along with very detailed photos and explanations. It does makes sense, it has suspension like features, massive volume potential, similar end user type of companies.
It is obviously not a sure thing, nothing is. But this is pretty close, my guess is likelihood of success (OIS rev of $300mil in CY2017 with OIS EPS of $1) is about 80%.
It really was the smartest way to do it. Right now they KNOW FOR SURE what the demand will be for Thanksgiving and Christmas and beyond. NOW they have the money to fulfill that demand....and they have the time to do it. Smart and well done.
The alternative was to either way way overbuild and pray or take a mid-level guess and have it first available in mid-November. I really think it was smart how Mad Catz and Harmonix went about this.
Q2 numbers will be excellent, Q3 will be off the charts great, and Q4 will be extremely profitable with a cash infusion that will make us all blush.
$8.27 in August, 2016.
Then either a weird yahoo glitch or (more likely) someone clicked on the Report Abuse button so it would get pulled off.
In many ways this is a beautiful thing.....but only because it is October 6th and not December 6th. They have plenty of time to build more/restock AND sustain excitement. Cheers.
Whoever started that thread must have deleted their message, once that happens everything below it is also gone......Hillary should have thot of that!
I give up on the purchase price discussion, believe what you wish.
Calendar Year Targets for HTCH:
Jay loves this stuff.
Not really charboneus. If I buy HTCH today for $10 per share, all I have to do is take about $330million out of my pocket. That is what it would cost me to own 100% of the company. Sure, when the deal is done I also own the debt (and the cash, and the assets, and everything else) but so what. The ONLY money I spent was $330million, that is all it cost me.
It is the same sort of thinking that makes real estate is an almost impossible investment to beat. When I buy a $500,000 apartment building, what does it cost me? It only costs me about $52,000 (10% down and $2000 closing costs since banks trust me), but as soon as the deal is done I own 100% of the apartment building and also have debt of $450,000. Will I ever have to take another dollar out of my pocket to repay the $450,000? No. After about 12 years, the building will have paid off the debt and I sell it for (worse case) $500,000. I just made about 9X my money in 12 years. All it cost was the initial $52,000 plus some blood, sweat,....but no tears. In other words, I bought something for $52k and sold it for $500k 12 years later......WITH ABOUT ZERO RISK!
Point is, with Hutch, the company is now cash flow positive so the debt isn't necessarily a bad thing. It certainly doesn't hinder anything.
I share all your sentiments as well.
A few random thots....
In HDD/susp business, whenever there are temporary subtleties that cause volumes to lighten those subtleties (actually the lighter revenue) are viewed as permanent disruptions (as a sign) that will lead to a quick industry death. So insane. The most recent example is Windows 10
With OIS, just look at the part/assy Hutch is making and ask yourself....Does it make sense for Hutch? Obviously the answer is Yes. Hi volume, similar features as susp, size, type of end user company, etc. Impossible to say "Yes" to some of their earlier diworseification efforts.
Then start multiplying 33mil shares by $1.70 and ask if that makes sense. Nope, sure doesn't. Then ask yourself ....if I had $55mil laying around, could I buy the company? No, not possible. Then ask, if I had $100mil avail could I buy the company today? Doubtful but maybe. Let's say one could. Would it make sense? Sure would. Susp business alone covers all expenses and will even generate excess cash going forward now that major part of OIS dev is behind us. One gets the OIS bus for free.
Just gut feel (maybe influenced by recent WDC infusion) ...My biggest fear is a buyout soon at under $5 to TDK. If Hutch makes it into CY2016 "as is", then perhaps they remain public, though I seriously doubt they make it to 2017 as the current public company....I expect either some PE fund or Chinese entity to buy them after OIS hits ....likely for well north of $12.....and it will be hostile......and amusing.
GB 31, SF 27
Thanks micro, that was an excellent read. I would guess your head was nodding up/down and you were smiling as much as I as you read it.
I think this is one reason for the relatively early launch.....gives them time to accurately gauge demand and restock in time for Thanksgiving/Xmas. Although some of that 'out of stock' bs might just be bs, help gin up excitement and even more demand. Time will tell. When it finally hits $8.27 we will know exactly what has happened.
....or simply some fund manager or institution guy waking up and deciding he/she would like 2 or 3million shares......or maybe some analyst from a big firm comes out with a strong buy recommendation.......or or or......is for miners.
norwalkron, With all due respect, please reread that article and think about how the phone interview likely transpired. DR DID NOT SAY sales would be $100mil, the questioner through out a $100mil number and DR neither confirmed nor denied, he simply said that sort of number would be meaningful to Mad Catz.
bfrnk's numbers are probably even too low.
Much of it is basically a repeat of an article from a couple months ago prior to the rise of RB4 sales rankings and the fall of GH sales rankings (relative to RB4).
I think your take bfrnk is exactly correct with respect to what happens +/-1 week from the Feb report.