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Skullcandy, Inc. Message Board

uptabdowntab 361 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Jul 1, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Reversal Time

    by mitchelloctaviavv54510 Apr 4, 2016 12:45 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Apr 5, 2016 7:32 AM Flag

    Everyone I know in central WIS is voting for Trump including me. Bernie will beat Hillary though.

    Cruz probably will win WIS but it will be close. Cruz cannot win a national election. Zero chance.

    THE MAIN REASON I am voting for Trump is because I believe he is the ONLY one who will actually build a wall and do a better job at the border. If that is the only thing he does in 4 or 8 years it will have been worth it.

  • Reply to

    No matter how you slice it...

    by rather_be_long Apr 4, 2016 1:40 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Apr 4, 2016 3:00 PM Flag

    At least each of us are on the same page, that's got to mean something given how long each of us have been doing this (investing). I get a kick out of the 1 or 2 bashers that continue to frequent here especially given the lack of any short interest. It really doesn't make much sense to me but to each his own I guess. I will know all there is to know about one of them in a few months as that process is now underway. Brighter days ahead.

  • Reply to

    OT: Update on STLY...

    by microcaptrader Apr 4, 2016 10:52 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Apr 4, 2016 12:44 PM Flag

    Those numbers (the big cash infusion) do make STLY look like a pretty compelling buy. I think no matter how you look at it, the company is now likely worth more than current stock price.

    One big demographic (not the right word) thing in the USA that is hurting them is that young people (20 - 40yr olds) don't want to own anything. They don't want cars or houses or stuff. Houses is a big one since everyone these days seems to want to rent. I have a bunch of apartments and these are the best of times in the apartment business.....but apartment people rarely buy decent furniture even people in my higher end units.

    The good thing is these sorts of trends seem to go in waves of 5 - 15 years so within a few more years the pendulum should swing the other way.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Apr 4, 2016 12:30 PM Flag

    Lots of possibilities when there is an asset being undervalued by the market. Certainly Lockheed has an interest, Taser should have an interest if they had half a brain and wanted to do something productive with their overpriced stock, The S&W founder of Mod Round might have designs on VirTra as well, also private equity and many others......including shareholders like you and I!

    Bottom line for me is I hope Ferris just keeps doing exactly what he has been doing....consistently and aggressively growing revenues and profits and maintaining a pristine balance sheet. All the rest will take care of itself.

    It will be difficult for the stock not to rise markedly as the revenues continue to creep up and cross $20mil. Many more eyes will be looking at VirTra.

  • Reply to

    There has never been a better time than

    by uptabdowntab Apr 2, 2016 5:39 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Apr 3, 2016 11:29 AM Flag

    I'll also add that my favorite sayings/jokes about the stock market and stocks are these:

    1. What's the quickest way to become a millionaire in the stock market? Start with 3 million.

    2. It took my xyz stock 3 years to triple in 2 weeks.

    Both are oh so true in the world of the stock market and at their core speak to the importance of patience.

  • Reply to

    There has never been a better time than

    by uptabdowntab Apr 2, 2016 5:39 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Apr 3, 2016 11:25 AM Flag

    Hi fishaker, The reason I am optimistic about Q1 and all of 2016 and 2017 and beyond is because of their decade+ track record of profitable growth. Each year they exceed the prior year in terms of revenue and earnings and I doubt if 2016 will be any different. There have only been a couple very small tiny hiccups along the way.

    And now the macro/world environment is starting to favor the type of product that VirTra offers so I see a powerful combination of a growing/hungry company getting a bigger piece of a bigger/growing pie.

    Last years Q1 was 2.58mil in revenue and 185thou in net income. With VTSI you have to buy shares when they are offered/available so the last few days were ok as I was able to add some at prices I consider to be stealing.

  • uptabdowntab by uptabdowntab Apr 2, 2016 6:02 PM Flag

    at my post on the VTSI board. If you like value and timeliness and growth and excellent management you might want to buy some VTSI stock. It is rather thinly traded but still pretty easy to buy some over a number of weeks.

    I know I've mentioned it in the past to several of you and since then the company has continued to perform magnificently....though the stock is trending up it has not kept pace = opportunity.

  • Reply to

    There has never been a better time than

    by uptabdowntab Apr 2, 2016 5:39 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Apr 2, 2016 5:44 PM Flag

    I will add that to me VTSI feels exactly the same as how SSYS (stratasys) felt in the early/mid 1990s. Great numbers, steady profitable growth, yet the stock never moved as revenue went from 1 or 2mil up through 5/10/15mil over 7 or 8 years. Then when SSYS revenue crossed $20mil, investors started to notice and then suddenly the 3D printing thing became real to everyone....even though engineers like me were using stratasys 3 d printers and other rapid prototype systems from about 1992 onward. Lots of parallels between that and the business in which VirTra participates.

  • now to be buying VTSI stock. By "better" I mean timely and from a valuation perspective. They just crossed $10mil in rev in a big way. They will likely cross $20mil in 2017. Those are big hurdles for any small company and will garner attention.

    Looking back at the entire history of the company and stock, I do not believe it was ever possible to buy shares (based on trailing twelve month performance) at valuations this low. PE of 11, PS of 1.30 and an enterprise value of 14million which is LESS than what 2016 revenue will be!

    And what is utterly fascinating (relative to stock price) is that their business continues to improve and growth appears to be accelerating. Truly excellent gross margins in the 55% range and net income bottom line margins above 10%! Yes, Q4 net income % was low but look at the dollar amounts that drove it. Simply due to a few new hires (mostly) to fund future growth. VirTra has always hired very carefully and continues to do so.

    The other reason now is timely to buy VTSI is because the Q1 report is only 6 weeks away, approx. May 15th. They will again in my opinion announce numbers that show great growth and profitability relative to last years Q1. Think about it, they more or less know/knew the Q1 numbers when Q4 was announced a couple days ago yet there was no effort to downplay expectations or bring up lumpy quarters due to order size or any of that.

    VTSI is at 11 cents instead of 33 cents only because they trade on the pinks and no one knows about them. That is starting to change. Modern Round may help with that as many well-healed investors will see the VirTra name as those locations open and spread. There are just so many positives with VTSI that this is about the only stock I own that I don't worry about.....and the only one that I have never sold a share of. All I do is continue to add to my share count. I hope others join me.

  • Reply to

    C'mon Tabby...

    by microcaptrader Apr 1, 2016 2:18 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Apr 1, 2016 3:02 PM Flag

    Not anymore but I was for 21 years and still miss some of it. In fact, it is very likely that you have a product in your house that I had a major hand in. At least if you have a gas fired furnace, water heater, PC or laptop, chemistry lab (figure maybe you into meth. 7 patents, 3 different industries. Two large multi-billion $ public companies, one private company with $600mil in sales.

  • Reply to

    C'mon Tabby...

    by microcaptrader Apr 1, 2016 2:18 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Apr 1, 2016 2:49 PM Flag

    I am an engineer and now I am primarily a real estate tycoon. When the weather is bad I am a typist. When it is the first day of the month I am sometimes a leg breaker with a G17 in reserve, but I digress.

    You are making the common mistake of confusing an engineer with a scientist. Engineers are practical problem solving "get it done" sort of people whereas scientists are always bogged down by details and snippets and never quite get anything done. That is why most of them teach or do research. That is why I was also a better than good project manager for most of my career....I understood priorities, could focus people correctly, and understood the big picture, but I digress.

    A scientist would approach MCZ and Mad Catz exactly as you are doing. Dig into the numbers, try to understand every detail, draw a myriad of conclusions. The typical scientist will get so mired down in the details as to miss the big picture and be unable to act (buy/sell/hold).

    The engineer simply looks at it this way: Mad Catz has $100million in sales and seems to have been a more or less breakeven company for most of its many years. Throughout its many years, MCZ has traded between about 20 cents and $2. Mad Catz has some brands and relationships that have value. They seem to be able to develop decent products rather quickly. Now that there is a finance person in charge, it seems likely they will be able to squeeze out at least $5 or $6mil in annual net income from that $100mil.

    That is why I still own my shares and have continued to add. The reason I owned it with DR in charge was because it seemed he could occasionally hit the homerun in between strings of strikeouts. But with KM in charge, I think we see a series of singles then a maybe a double or two and perhaps a homerun in a couple years. Either way, the stock will eventually get back to $2.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Apr 1, 2016 1:49 PM Flag

    You've been 100% wrong for about 3 years now....that isn't going to change.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Apr 1, 2016 1:15 PM Flag

    micro, You are trying way too hard to bash. We all get it, you lost some money with MCZ and this is your way to seek revenge. Sort of sad and comical all at the same time. Given the way you obviously feel and the confidence you have in your numbers there is no way anyone believes you still own 400,000 shares. You have fallen hard and need help, we all understand. In your circumstances you should vote for Bernie as he will take wealth from multi-millionaires like me (and Hopeful and Barney and LTF and Xwallstceo and many others) and give it to folks like you. Please cling to that hope as it is better than nothing.

    PS......You should neither fabricate numbers from thin air nor draw conclusions from them. Just not cool.

  • today on the dip. Nice to see analyst estimates sllooowwwwl creeping upward.

  • Reply to

    The AC should be calculated today?

    by carpinus1 Mar 31, 2016 10:34 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Apr 1, 2016 9:59 AM Flag

    That article is factually incorrect. Post-buyout there would only be 2 susp companies - NHK and TDK and both are Japanese. Two great big US companies (STX/WDC) could be crippled if something were to happen.

    The other thing is that Hutch is still THE BEST of the susp companies in terms of knowledge, product quality, and understanding drive performance. Yes, they have an iffy balance sheet due to debt.

    The more this thing drags out, the more likely it is never going to happen. I still have a tiny number of shares but at this point I think I am being stupid to own even 1.

  • Reply to

    OT: VTSI on sale

    by uptabdowntab Mar 31, 2016 2:57 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Mar 31, 2016 8:57 PM Flag

    Ok b_fr_nk, I'll bite, what's not to like? About the only thing I see wrong with VTSI is that the entire market cap is only $19million so it is difficult to invest much money in it. Same problem with MCZ, 3% of the company is only worth $440,000. That is why some of us have to invest in some big cap opportunities such as the BACs and FBs and NUEs of the world.

    VTSI share price is currently 12 cents.
    VTSI PS=1
    VTSI Trailing PE=12, Forward=6
    VTSI Bal Sheet has No debt and $3.3mil in Cash which is over 2cents/share
    VTSI has 10+consecutive years of growth
    VTSI has an excellent CEO
    VTSI has a great product line whose reach continues to expand and is timely in this world
    VTSI buyout price today is about 40 - 50 cents /share or 3 - 4X current share price
    VTSI gross margins and net margins are extremely healthy, 60% and 12%.

  • Reply to

    Here's what we're working with...

    by microcaptrader Mar 31, 2016 4:54 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Mar 31, 2016 8:42 PM Flag

    Nice post but your conclusion about being in "serious default" since late December is obviously incorrect. First, had the company been in default they would have notified via SEC doc. Second, are you really getting so deep into the gutter of misleading people that you fail to mention the FACT that Mad Catz had $9.8 million in cash on the balance sheet as of 12/31/2015. So even if you neglect all the positive cash flow as Q4 progressed from Jan1 through today, the company still had a several million dollar cushion against the $20mil limit as of the START of Q4. In other words, even on the morning of Jan 1, 2016 Mad Catz had about $1.5mil of room to spare against the $20mil limit.

  • uptabdowntab by uptabdowntab Mar 31, 2016 2:57 PM Flag

    Just announced yet another great FY (same as CY), strong revenue growth, strong cash generation, no debt, strong bottom line Net Income with EPS=1cent. Great gross and net margins. Net income was 1.5mil on 13.3mil in revenue so well over 10%.

    There are not many shares for sale today but there are some. I am done adding for the day but there are still about 100k shares for sale at the ASK of 12 cents.

    Buy it and forget about it for a couple years. Extremely well run and a company for the times. It will not stay at this level very long. They will announce Q1 about May 15th.

  • Last years Q1 was just under $2.6mil in revenue and $185,000 in Net Income.

    Sure like our chances of some spectacular mid-May headlines. Only 6 or 7 weeks from now!

    Nice they didn't try to downplay Q1 in any way in todays Q4 PR. For sure they already know the numbers! Cheers.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Mar 31, 2016 11:46 AM Flag

    I think Ferris does a really good job of managing "the numbers", especially on a yearly basis. 2014 was a great example as he made darn sure that Q4 of 2014 came in at a revenue number that was higher than 2013. Now the Q4 reported today is another great example as he made sure the bottom line would still be a profit for the quarter.

    There are 4 openings posted on the employment section of the website. All are significant technical worker bees (and I mean this as a compliment).

    Nice that we get another update soon in mid-May when Q1 (which ends today) is reported. I find it rather significant that they did not try to play down Q1 in any way such as talking about lumpiness or any other excuses. They basically know the Q1 numbers already so my confidence is strong.

3.89+0.26(+7.16%)May 27 4:00 PMEDT