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Skullcandy, Inc. Message Board

uptabdowntab 166 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 minutes ago Member since: Jul 1, 1998
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  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 21, 2015 7:51 PM Flag

    I'll take a stab at that as there are many possibilities.....

    1. The $45mil they have avail is more than enough for $145mil in a single quarter as long as inventory turns are enough.
    2. The contract manufacturer/assembler might simply agree to build and ship based on Mad Catz history, reputation, and the fact they always pay their bills. Even the payment terms might naturally span enough time (60 or 90 days?) to make all of this irrelevant.
    3. Likely some combination of #1 and #2. Take some money upfront, and that together with the strength of preorders is enough for the builder to agree to accept the balance later.
    4. How am I able to buy an apartment complex for 10% down? On my good looks? Certainly not. Simply because the bank trusts me enough and has studied the market enough to know I and it is a good investment. Close in August and I have a commercial loan with a rate of 4.40% locked for 7 years! Point is....make a strong case and money is available.

    And there are many more possibilities.
    Cheers.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 21, 2015 5:55 PM Flag

    Oops....you forgot to switch your id back to emoryhowie.

    A couple points......$600k is nothing for a CEO salary......Mad Catz is in a tough business and they continue to survive and occasionally knock the ball out of the park......Trailing PE is 7 and this year PE is sub 2, PS is .2 or some crazy number......balance sheet is robust.....ya can't blame the CEO for how the buyers/sellers of the stock value the company.

    IF you really want to feel better about the current valuation and daily trading, take a look at the historical prices and daily volumes and closes from about July 1, 2010 to Nov 30, 2010. IT LOOKS IDENTICAL TO WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY! Cheers bones....err I mean emory. Dude.

  • Reply to

    1.33 fresh NEW LOWS...

    by svenkarls1 Jul 20, 2015 2:14 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 20, 2015 6:52 PM Flag

    bh, I do give you bonus points for creativity, imagination, and humor. Well done. My favorite was was "Penn has no idea where to make OIS in volume." Why is it even a concern? Surely OIS is a failure so no need to make any. My second favorite was your advice to those short. Similar problem, no one is short HTCH shares. Short interest is well below 1mil shares.

    By the way, my guess on Hutch OIS capacity right now is 4million per week and it is easily doubled. There are zero concerns for FY16 in terms of producing the "tens of millions" that Penn promised during the cc Q&A. Maybe they will be capacity constrained in FY17.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 20, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    In my opinion.....Because it would not work.

    The fundamental difference between an event (like a music fest) and a product (like RB4) is that "the event ends on a specific day and time." In comparison, a product is sold forever. Also, with any event, there is a finite number of spectators allowed....with a product, not so much as it is always available, even if that means the secondary market.

    I liked your earlier post of the DR interview and comments on kiosks. I really love that approach for this type of product and the fact that the bulk of sales are in Nov/Dec. I think these guys really do have some brain function.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 19, 2015 9:53 PM Flag

    I'm clueless about their business. That said, so called peer companies all trade at valuations many times higher than INVE. I also think that Hart has enough competence AND enough wheeler-dealer in him to ensure that the stock goes much higher at some point in the next year or two. With INVE I think it is as simple as promising yourself not to sell at a loss.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 18, 2015 9:00 PM Flag

    "Why" you ask. Very simple. They cannot, they have been locked out for most of the year due to their knowledge of OIS customers and upcoming OIS ramps. Notice the use of the plural.

    Psssstt....Do ya wonder why Hutch didn't warn for the Apr/May/Jun quarter? Increase in OIS revenue has already more than offset the temporary HDD susp revenue softness.

    Psstt #2....HTCH will never ever again trade between $2 and $3! It is going to go straight from sub-$2 to above-$3 overnight.....and then keep rising from there. Over $700million in revenue is in sight.

    Cheers.

  • Reply to

    ANR is at 8 cents today...

    by svenkarls1 Jul 17, 2015 2:08 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 18, 2015 8:53 PM Flag

    Pretty good....Thanks for asking.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 16, 2015 4:15 PM Flag

    FY16 started April 1st, Q1 report due in early August but why wait, here are the upcoming EPS numbers (my guesses):
    Q1= -2 pennies
    Q2= +4 pennies
    Q3= +19 pennies
    Q4= +3 pennies
    Wonder if the stock will still be at 38 cents after Q4?

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 14, 2015 8:11 PM Flag

    Not so hard to believe. Just look at your own, and my, and most other's behavior. Is MCZ your only investment? No Is MCZ your only stock? No. I suspect you and most here are well diversified. I have most of my money in real estate, some active, some passive. I have all my liquid money in checking and saving accounts. Then I have most all my stocks in IRA and Roth IRA accounts. Then within those IRA accounts I own about a dozen stocks, though not equally weighted.

    Then another way to look at is with respect to other opportunities in the stock market. Do I expect MCZ to be a 5 - 10 bagger? Yes. Problem is, I also expect HTCH to be a 10 - 20 bagger. And INVE to at least triple. And VTSI to triple. And ANR to maybe be a 50 - 100 bagger. And so on and so forth. I like comparing MCZ to HTCH because they are so similar in the opportunities and risks. Base business that is at best break even right now. RockBand 4 verses OIS. Recent dilution and capital raise. MCZ balance sheet better in some ways, worse in others. Exec management that is marginal but capable.

    Also, by now, all of us have plenty of MCZ shares.

    B_frnk and others are correct, nothing will happen here....until it does.

  • Reply to

    New Songs

    by tony_dolgoff Jul 13, 2015 10:31 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 14, 2015 10:03 AM Flag

    Great post and observation. Nice to see there are customers out there who are following close enough to actually notice the song release and then act on it. Jumped from 700 to 300....just good to see life.

  • Reply to

    Why are

    by hogryder2000 Jul 13, 2015 11:24 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 13, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    Well said. At some point in the next couple months it is going to double in the span of 10 minutes. Then double again and again between then and Spring. That gets you to $3 without even trying.....and the funniest part of the whole deal will be that the trailing PE will be sub-15 and the trailing PS a sub-market of 1ish.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 13, 2015 2:12 PM Flag

    IF my memory is correct, the MAJORITY of shareholders wanted the reverse split, however, it required 66.67% of the vote in order to pass. The reverse split only received about 61 or 62%. The main mistake they made at that time was they wanted it to be 1 for 100. Had they gone for 1 for 10 or 1 for 20 I think it would have passed. I was all for it at the time and still am.

  • So Seagate preannounces their revenues will be 10% lower than expected. Everyone knew this was coming and it marks a decent likelihood of a bottom since STX stock remains flat to up today. Hutch stock barely reacts, more confirmation in my opinion. Seagate simply told us today what Hutch told us during last cc when they provided -10% guidance for suspension ships.

    All this is obvious yet you still have some poor HTCH owners who are intent on selling at the absolute bottom below $2. It is no wonder 5% of investors/traders make 95% of the profits.

    HDD susp business is now valued at essentially zero AND the soon-to-be-ramping OIS business is valued at less than zero. Remarkable times. Anyone capable of querying Taiwanese autofocus and camera module blogs and company websites and reading/translating a bit of the Chinese language will soon discover the first couple likely Hutch OIS customers. A bit more research will show you exactly which smartphone companies they ship to. Of course, not all blogs are to be believed and perhaps I am reading more into them than I should. An analyst or two will need to ask some point blank questions during the upcoming cc and be confident enough to name names. Though maybe Hutch will make it easy on all of us and tell us before then.

    The ability to read, write, listen, think, and do math will make you rich.

  • Reply to

    i most say all the catz amazon Bundles

    by joey71440 Jul 10, 2015 1:49 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 10, 2015 3:23 PM Flag

    Walk into ANY GameStop and watch what is happening. Every other person that walks in, walks directly up to the counter and preorders something. All day, every day.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 10, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    The only point of my post was to illustrate that it takes very few preorders per location to add up to big numbers for Mad Catz and Harmonics. Remember, I am an engineer, not a scientist. Ballpark is plenty close enough for me.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 10, 2015 2:42 PM Flag

    You will lose that bet. The settlement date for reporting mid-July short interest is July 15th. This means that any trades through TODAY, July 10th WILL be included in the July 15th report. Any trades starting on Monday, July 13th will be included in the end of July report.

    No one is short MCZ. The anabolic guy is all-talk.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 10, 2015 7:27 AM Flag

    Estimating preorders is tough. My take is simple....there are 6700 GameStop stores. Seems to me each store has to average at least 1 RB4 preorder bundle per day.......6700/day = 47,000/week=$11,750,000 in revenue! Then there is Amazon, Walmart, Target, BestBuy and all the others. The numbers will be big.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 9, 2015 11:10 PM Flag

    No reason. Believe it or not I actually have a well rounded life. Was away from home most of today and I hate using good til canceled orders. Had I seen those 55k shares, I would have bought them. Maybe tomorrow afternoon....in the morning I'm away again.

    Cannot wait until Aug 15th-ish and beyond.
    Cannot wait until Modern Round locations start opening.

    Switching gears a bit.....what a truly spectacular time it is to be buying tiny company stocks! These are days that make multi-millionaires.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 8, 2015 5:58 PM Flag

    I added a bit more MCZ and HTCH late today. Also tried buying more VTSI but couldn't get any fills. I've now moved beyond being PO'd about the stock swoon and am pretty excited by all the stuff on sale. Big stuff like BP and BAC are good buys, yield stuff like NRZ and PNNT are good buys. But of all the stuff out there I really think tiny beaten down company stocks are what a guy should be buying right now.....like MCZ.

    With MCZ, RB4 gives reason for hope.
    With HTCH, OIS gives reason for hope.

  • long time I tried buying shares today. All during the last 2 hours of the day. First I entered an order to buy 100,000 at .103. The bid/ask at that time was .091/.1085. Left it there for an hour and didn't get a single share, then canceled it. Then in the last 30 or 40 minutes of trading I put in an order to buy 10,000 at .095. Same bid/ask and it went unfilled. Not even 1 share!

    So while it is depressing to see the current quote and the resulting value in one's account, at least it really isn't real. Impossible to buy (or sell) any quantity at this price.

    Cheers.

SKUL
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