many shares are currently for sale at 59/60/61 cents? I haven't been watching all that close the last several days, perhaps someone has seen some large numbers flashing at the ask or maybe when the ask disappears it is immediately replaced in a concerted effort or perhaps some other observation.
I don't know. My guess is the only reason it went to $1.90 was due to the crummy small cap market. Now I think HTCH is trading entirely on its own merits and will perform independently of the overall market.
Every one day chart for the last couple weeks is sssooooo bullish for HTCH. Today is perfect example, it goes up on big volume purchases and drifts lower on tiny sells. The pros are coming in and little guys are losing shares to the big boys. Stay long and strong and buy the dips (like now) if you can.
to move up a bit. At today's market cap, the HDD suspension business is still valued at half price (ok, maybe 60%) and the OIS business is valued at about nothing! I sort of think when the market wakes up and understands what Hutch has done with both businesses that HTCH will be much higher. There are 3 analysts whose estimates and target stock prices are starting to look very stupid. Will they get on board or double down on stupidity? Fun times ahead.
If I got thumbs down for being boring or stating the obvious or wasting computer memory then I understand. If I got thumbs down for the content of the post then it makes no sense since there was a little something there for everyone. Or maybe someone doesn't like me......aaawwww, I'm starting to cry.
I actually do not believe the stock will stay dead for very long. If I had to bet my life, I would guess that by about September 10th (one week after labor day weekend) the stock will be 40 or 50% higher than today.
(apparently) interest in the stock can dry up this quickly following an upbeat earnings release and upbeat Needham presentation. Either the CEO wasn't talking to the right people at the conference (not possible) or all fund managers are total dweebs (possible).
I don't really buy any sort of manipulation theory at this point. I do believe most traders and investors are stupid unable to look ahead any further than their nose.
Between now and early November is going to drag.....unless the big buyer(s) decide to launch it to $1+ in 1 day with some 100k share buy orders.....that's all it would take.
Ya might want to redo that math. 1% of 7.9million is 79,000 shares.....so 200k volume is about 2.5%....which in my opinion is very healthy and good to see. This just about always happens when a stock is powering upward. HTCH was trading 100,000 shares most days before the recent quarterly results and now trades north of 600,000 on a regular basis on only 28mil outstanding. MCZ right now has close to no volume yet when it starts moving it will trade 1-2mil per day on 60mil outstanding.
Some of it is long term holders giving up, some is institutional shuffling, some is momo guys, lots of reasons and most are good.
I sure wish I knew more about these guys (meaning this company). I did make a small buy of some shares a month or so ago but haven't paid much attention. It is reassuring to me that you are continuing to buy so Thank You for posting that. I've been running around WIS the last week or so doing fun stuff with my kids and their friends before school starts up in a couple weeks so whatever attention I have given the markets has been on mcz and htch and inve (which, as a stock, I am starting to fall in love with). Over the next week or so I will try to do some reading and maybe get a stronger feeling for ABHI.
Not sure of you or your history but you triggered an interesting (perhaps) point regarding weak hands. My own opinion is that HTCH will continue to rise relatively quickly partially because there are relatively few weak hands left in the stock.
The long slog down from the 5s to 1.9 must have cleared out many non-believers.
Then, the late June, early July gyrations due to Russell that saw the stock go from 1.9 to 2.7 and then back to 2 relatively quickly had to shake out most remaining doubters.
Now in August we have had some powerful up days on relatively huge volume, but even most of these folks (retail, institutions, managers, etc.) didn't get in below 2.5. They got in in the high 2s up to 3.5 or so.
I think this is part of the reason the stock didn't need to consolidate very long in the 3.5 range and likely why it will not stay at the 4 level for very long before heading higher. Those large positions did not establish their positions to settle for a 20 or 30% gain. Most of these big boys are here for several hundred percent or more.
While this is all sort of interesting stuff to think about, the neat thing is that the stock movement is underpinned by great things happening at the company. Namely the continued volume ramp of DSA suspensions due to new HDD program ramps and the new OIS program. Both took years of effort and both are starting to pay off in a very big way.....and the momentum of these efforts cannot be stopped...that is just the nature of the HDD business and the even higher volume smartphone/camera business. By the time the revenue growth and bottom line EPS are apparent to everyone (FY15 starting in 45 days), HTCH is going to be much higher.
This sort of action also caught me by surprise. I was buying pretty steadily before earnings and used up too much of my ammo. November will be here soon and February and beyond quickly as well.
I think it is simply a matter of these sorts of situations (tiny company, recovery/turnaround story, beaten down stock), in the current market being "show me" stocks. In other words, they are not going to move until AFTER the results or news are formally announced. No one wants their money tied up any longer than possible and (these days) people seem willing to forego some gains in order to reduce their risk level.
ACI and ANR ....everyone knows they will survive and eventually thrive but no one will buy until coal prices are clearly rising even if it means buying at 7 or 8 instead of 3.
HTCH....entire market knew about the Seagate quals and what that will do to ship numbers and revenue yet no one buys until guidance is higher and knew product announced.
INVE....crystal clear a great CEO is now at the helm yet buying is just starting now that results announced and forward path seems clear.
MCZ....WE (the regulars here) all know that the company is going to have much higher revenue this year, will be very profitable, has relationships with big boyz (Amazon), but until Q2 is announced in early Nov we are not going to crack $1. WE also all know MCZ will be over $1.50 in February yet many are willing to wait to buy at 80 cent and 90 cents and $1.20 when it is a 100% certainty rather than take the extra risk and buy today.
...of course tomorrow I will have some other idea....sigh
The only one sounding desperate is you, mognj. SPDC is going to walk up and up and up in a steady relentless fashion over the next couple years. Cheers.
Billions with a B.
Friends.....Listen to the replay of last night's INVE quarterly results cc or simply go to the INVE yahoo message board and read the last day or three of posts. Just about zero doubt INVE is going to trend steadily higher over the next year, likely a triple in that timeframe and it will continue far beyond as long as Hart is running the show and guiding the street.
VTSI will announce Q2 tomorrow morning. Last year was only 1.57mil in revenue and 6 months was 4mil, this year Q1 was 2mil and I am expecting 2.5 -3.5mil for Q2 and full year of about 12mil verses last years 10 mil. with 158mil shares the market cap is about 8.7mil and they are very profitable, have zero debt, and over 1mil of cash. They are tiny but steadily growing. I think you could buy lots of shares today in the 6 cent range and reasonably expect it to be worth more in the future.
year ago Q2 and year ago Q1+Q2.......should make for some nice headlines and interest when VirTra releases Q2 results tomorrow am. Way undervalued at current price. Cheers.
Interesting post, not sure I knew about your previous life, great perspective. The other sort of striking thing to me tonight is who isn't posting on this message board. Perhaps several of the supposedly die-hard longs went awol a couple years early......though it is Summer and vacations and other activities abound.
....or fall short. Also emphasized being conservative with what they tell the Street with respect to numbers. Well done. Also like the continued mentions of shareholder value and unlocking the value and that sort of stuff. The realization that they also need to focus on the bottom line shows good awareness of how to babysit the Street. Beautiful.
Likely just some customer relationship sort of stuff. It obviously has to be neutral or good news. If bad, they couldn't keep it confidential.
I agree with your point about the sequential being more important and telling. I admit to knowing little about the business but I can listen and read and it seems clear they launched some efforts last quarter that are likely to pay off with further growth this quarter and beyond. I also believe the quarter they just reported pretty much validates everything that Hart has done. Bodes well.