The good thing is the new program ramps are finally underway and at a faster kick off than expected. Bodes well for this Q IF IF IF the yield issues are really behind them. Also good that they were able to meet all required shipments to customers.
Seems like their "flat to +5%" shipment guidance is truly conservative on the low end, maybe they are finally learning their lesson. Also good that it is tighter range than last Q's 100 - 110mil guidance, they have a better grasp on what is coming.
Today will be tough for holders (like me) but it is an opportunity to get some shares in the 2.90 to 3.10 range. Cheers......and remember, gaps ALWAYS fill!
Had you thrown the dart today, you would have been correct and likely much happier than owning HTCH tomorrow. That said, I think the odds are in favor of HTCH outshining almost all other stocks from tomorrow's close through Sept 30, 2014. That is the other good thing about HDD stocks, short memories and fortunes that change in an instant. Always a fun ride, though ya sometimes gotta puke.
Sort of. Ships and revenue were about exactly what they said they would be. What is a little different this time is that over the next several quarters, ships are going to build to roughly 108mil this quarter, 115mil in Q2, perhaps 125mil Q3, and so on. The future is still exceedingly bright and none of this is priced in. Sure, maybe the stock sees 2.60 or 2.70 but so what, buy more and be happy in 6 months. Cheers.
Yes, it sure did. Even though their revenue growth wasn't great, it was significant and when viewed relative to many other microcaps I follow, it was even more impressive. It is just extremely dificult for any company to grow revenue in a significant way in this sssslllllooooowwwwly growing economy. I think LOJN will continue to step up over the next several (and beyond) months.
Good luck to you buyatbid.
....the reason the stock couldn't break free of 4.10.
...the reason insiders didn't buy earlier in the quarter.
Wow, they through everything and the kitchen sink into these results. Seems to me they are setting themselves up for a clean and beautiful FY2014 which is already one month old. Tomorrow's trading will be interesting.
Believe it or not, but I sort of think that in the world of hard drive companies, there are far fewer accurate leaks of quarterly performance than in any other sector. It is virtually impossible for any employee to figure out the bottom line number due to all the factors that come into play. There are multiple programs and confusing yields and irratic shipments and pricing tweaks and crisis after crisis that influence those too close. Sure, the 1 or 2 top guys in Accounting/CFO/CEO know ahead of time but that's about it. I'm certain the BOD doesn't have a clue so there is really only 3 or 4 people who know the numbers a few days or weeks ahead of time.
That said, I would guess that many employees and others can figure out reasonably close how the top line revenue number is going to look. I mean, in Hutch's last official guidance, they told us as much so there will not be any surprise there.
All that matters for forward stock price is forward guidance and q&a in the cc.
I do like the Trick or Treat subject line, very timely.
I am now certain that no matter what the numbers/guidance are tonight I will be adding shares over the next week. If they are a disaster, wonderful!, then I get shares at 2.60. If they are great, wonderful! then I get shares at 4.20 tomorrow morning. The key is that HTCH will be $12-$15 at some point in 2014.
Yep, seems to me the handwriting is on the wall. First, you have the CEO saying repeatedly in one of the recent cc's that it doesn't makes sense for MadCatz to remain a public company at its current size. Second, why on EARTH would you add another "accounting/numbers guy" to the BOD. Clearly he cannot possibly know anything about the passionate gamer business or even recognize a MadCatz product in a lineup of anything. Third, say what you want about MadCatz revenue and earnings but they ARE a very very good boutique design house.
There is value here to the right acquiring party.
Monster 2014 coming, stock will rise. Amen.
well with extremely bright future. LOJN stock needs to triple to reflect this upcoming growth....and it will. The recent rise in trading volumes and small stock rise is a hint of what is coming. Cheers all.
Revenue growth is accelerating.
Better than solid balance sheet.
The LoJack brand alone is worth more than the current market cap.
Partnership with TomTom was/is smart.
Current Management actually knows what they are doing.
Potential for Ebitda to be 7 - 9% of revenue in about 18 months.
Yes, I know "potential" is just that, potential. But this company now finally seems to have a solid plan, solid execution, solid management and some decent economic tailwinds that should result in strong revenue and earnings growth for the next several years. These are not priced in yet. I believe EPS will be about 40 cents for 2014 and well above that for 2015. All that said, I doubt it happens because my guess is the company gets bought out within 12 months. And all this is pure guess work.
Sort of depends on the cc and q&a. I still think the company is going to have a big 2014 (and beyond) and that the stock is still too low.
meifud, welcome back, we missed you. Now I'm certain MCZ will rise well beyond $3 in CY2014. Cheers!
.01?....why all the optimism?
Anyone (like me) holding onto a glimmer of hope should go back and read the last earnings PR....it is actually pretty good. About every month I go back a reread.
I fully expect this to triple in 2014 and then triple again in 2015.....or not.
Just in case anyone is confused, Hutch's new fiscal year started on October 1st, we are now one month into Q1FY14. The quarter being reported on Thursday is Q4FY13 which ended Sept 30.
I expect that Q4FY13 was cash flow neutral....either a wee bit positive or a wee bit negative. They basically (more or less) said as much at the last cc and investor preso in NY. This quarter, Q1FY14 should be solidly cash flow positive and Q2FY14 should be bottom line net income profitable. I am still astonished at how analyst estimates for EPS have yet to move strongly upward....but analysts typically don't have the retail investor's best interests in mind.
Hutch management is typically guarded and conservative in their guidance. This is necessary in the brutally tough arena in which they play. Product cycles are short, technology is advancing at the speed of light, and information is king and they cannot afford to give anything (info-wise) for free to NHK or Magnecomp.....AND their two customers (Western Dig and Seagate) could get really PO'd if Hutch starts spilling too many beans on programs, quals, ramps, allocations, and volumes.
We'll know a bit more during trick-or-treating time on Halloween.
Value this based on PE and UVE should be way higher.
Value this based on PS and UVE should be higher.
Value this based on EV/EBITDA and UVE should be way higher.
Value this based on DIV yield and UVE should be higher.
About the only measure that says lower would be PB compared to other insurance companies.
I believe earnings will be spectacular and it will finally push UVE well above 10. Also expecting a bonus div at either year end or early Spring.
Fun stock to own.
At least with the 8% div one gets paid to wait. Also think it gets a boost when it becomes even more obvious that the current admin in Wash will be a true lame duck next Nov.
I started noticing that type of thing about a month ago on a variety of message boards. Apparently these clowns have come up with some sort of automated way to hijack/re-use posts for whatever reason. Sure is annoying.
I agree with your sentiments, but the one thing I don't understand is why on EARTH did they issue the new shares at such a low price? I keep thinking that at some point we again test 3.
COCO and CECO valuations (PB, PS, EV/EBITDA) were (ha ha) very similar and now that CECO is poised to double tomorrow, guess what, COCO is going to be pulled up as well, and rightfully so.
CECO has about 4mil shares shorted, that will add serious fuel.
COCO has about 20mil shares shorted, that will add serious fuel as well.
Even without the shorts, COCO should be trading at about 2 - 3X current price. With the shorts scrambling to cover, it could be a spectacular rise. The ONLY way to keep a lid on it is for the shorts to defend their positions and short even more. I sort of doubt they are that stupid. The hand writing is on the wall that these stocks are grossly undervalued.
COCO might rise well above $6/share by noon..........TOMORROW.......or, more realistically, in about 3 months. Cheers.