most beautiful Viking game I ever watched. Even if the Packers lose by 50, it will still have been a great day! I'll be laughing for the rest of the year. Well done Vikes.
Just my guesses....
Your RB4 revenue is too low. I say $62mil.
Your OTHER PRODUCT revenue is too high. I say $29mil.
Your OTHER PRODUCT margin is too low. I say 27%.
Tax is too negative. I say -$2.1million.
This is a great way to waste time until earnings!
Great post and 100% accurate.
As an aside.....I hope Modern Round does away with the super slick looking "Bond-girl" type women shown in some of their online advertising. I do not think that is the slick hi-end image they want to put out there since it would appeal to too small an audience. They need to target this at families and both men and women in my opinion.
That said, everything about Modern Round appears to be well researched and well financed so it would seem they do have some smart people trying to make sure this works.
In terms of VirTra and VTSI, I sort of look at it as icing on the cake.
I no longer own shares. Took my loss but really haven't moved on. I still pay a bit of attention to it and doubt if the delisting will matter at all to the stock price. I think at some point in 2016 INVE will make a nice run upward. I didn't like moving some of my money from INVE to MCZ but my thinking was that MCZ will move sooner and more significantly than INVE.....and if I'm lucky I can get back into INVE before the next big move.
barney, Exactly what part of my post do you think is full of shlt? Everything in the post is easily verified truth. Lots of arguing about level of EPS for Q3 but even the bashers admit Q3 will be well above 0. The 3 analysts even have a consensus of +4 cents for Q4. Perhaps you doubt they will be debt free at end of Q4? Look at the cash generation that occurs every year in Q4. Perhaps you don't think $4 is 10x more than 40 cents? Consult your 3rd grade teacher. Maybe its my statement about "best forward prospects ever"? RB4 will have legs throughout the upcoming FY. VR is in Mad Catz wheelhouse with Saitek, read latest article. Capcom deal is huge and starts to hit in June. New relationship with Samsung also bodes well.
Sorry I threw stones at your KTCC position. I just didn't want to see you guys lose half your money on that stock.
Anyone who hangs out on the message board of a stock they don't own as much as you do is either a liar or a liar?
Just remember, Q2 taught the world that no matter what the revenue level, it is impossible for Mad Catz to make an EPS profit.
The funniest part of the whole deal is that folks here are arguing about whether Q3 EPS will be 8 cents or 16 cents or maybe higher. This for a company that will exit this FY in 2 1/2 months with zero debt, excess cash and a Q4 that likely generates another 3 - 5 cents in EPS....and perhaps the best forward prospects ever. If the stock were $4 today with a market cap of $300million, I would be a little worried about what the reactions will be to the next couple quarters. But with the stock 10X lower and completely disconnected from the reality of what is happening at Mad Catz.....no worries.
Sort of funny you mention that as similar thoughts crossed my mind as well. I think the big problem with the GM deal was that GM didn't really understand their own business. GM makes almost ALL their money by selling guns. Having VirTra systems in their stores was never ever going to result in GM selling more guns.
Some links on ihub board. Read about the royalty deal details with Modern Round. If MR takes off......oh my. And even if MR is an utter failure, VTSI is still grossly undervalued. PS for current calendar year is likely a bit above 1.....PE of about 5.....Balance sheet with excess cash, no debt......Growth rate accelerating and now at about 30%/year.....the right product for these nasty times.
I wonder who the dolt is selling shares today?....but I thank him!
I shouldn't have chimed in as I don't own any shares and I give barney a hard time about doing similar on MCZ board. I did make some money in this sector in either the late 1990s or early 2000s but sort of got lucky with some consolidation/buyouts. At least I made barney laugh.
I love lots of your stock picks but this sure isn't one of them. Contract manufacturing in general is a terrible business, low margin and zero customer loyalty. KTCC looks to be one of the better ones but they are falling into the same trap as every other one, trying to buy business. The KTCC short term chart suggests this goes well below $6. Longer term, maybe $3 or $4. I know....nobody asked me. Just wanted to toss in a caution since I come here to see how terrible my picks are doing in the stock contest.
I'm not much into FB or messaging or even texting for that matter. I could email you via yahoo but then even if you replied I would never find it since I NEVER check yahoo email. I'm sort of a stubborn cuss in many ways.
I do not know either but here are my guesses.....
A) No potential new investors believe that RB4 will lead to profitability and great cash generation this fiscal year because that is what Q2 told them. Furthermore, the company has not made clear what products will drive FY17 results.
B) RB4 and the partnership with Harmonix caught many completely off guard and came when they were mostly out of the stock. Retailers like me had already gathered up many of the available shares and are unwilling to sell. The big (at least bigger) boys wanted in and used some ammo and Q2 results to drive this down to present level where they have slowly been building positions. Until "they" have their shares, they will trade between desks to keep it here.
C) Company has been and continues to sell shares via ATM.
I think it is mostly "A" and a bit of "B". The stock has also not caught anyone's attention. The trading volumes on the most recent march from 35 to 70 cents were very small and the crash down after Q2 was on even tinier volume.
At some point, new investors/traders will wake up and start to buy. Several near term potential triggers are approaching. It would not surprise me at all if MCZ were to go from 39 cents to 50 cents to 70 cents to $1 in the span of 3 or 4 trading days on daily volume of 5 to 10 million shares. I would only be surprised and shocked if the stock stays at 40+/-10 cents for the next 6 months.
turn_turn, If you do know meifud's real name, please post it here. I have always been curious who she really is. Or if you do not want to post, give me a few tips on where to find it. Thanks.
.....and there you have it.....this is why HTCH is at 3.52 and not 3.60 or 3.70.....simple as that and a valid reason to boot.........
twomambo2.......Please share with us what you are buying. Thanks.
Against my better judgment, I will answer your questions:
- trading pattern different due to lesson of recent Q2, "No matter how hi the revenue, EPS will be negative".....also, overall markets are far more reactionary now than then, in other words more backwards looking than forward
- history always repeats and this time it will be pinned by real profits and a balance sheet with excess cash
- VR will be big AND substitute Samsung for Microsoft AND this time there is CAPCOM, many more opportunities this time around and the balance sheet to follow through.
Age must be catching up with you as you are off your game. Why even hang around on a stock message board of a company and stock you don't own? Of course same question for barney? Then the nonstop bashing by emory and others....too funny m'boy. I think many of you swing from the wrong side of the plate.