chasrx, I will be the first to admit I am completely clueless about Identiv's products, technology, and what it is they really do. I like the stock because I love what I hear coming from the CEO's lips. I love how the CEO turned a mess of a company into a simpler cohesive rational operation. Even though I don't know much about the products and tech I know that their competitors sell for much higher PS and EV/EBITDA valuations. I also love the 15 year stock chart in light of the new CEO and his organization, tells me the stock is capable of being much higher. I like the results delivered last quarter and the revenue growth being promised. The strength of the move from 10 to 18 has been on great volume with just enough pull-backs along the way to ensure it continues.
I just read what I typed above, sort of lame and windy, sorry. Simpler.....Love the CEO, love the company simplification, love the last quarter's results and current year outlook, Catalyst will be the revenue for this quarter and forward outlook.
stock. Nice new high on powerful volume, then a very nice dip to the upper 16s that should have shaken out the pansies. Solid move up for most of yesterday...so poised for the inevitable step up to the 25ish level soon. Then a good quarterly report/cc and its a big step up from there. Cheers all.
You guys are silly. A better strategy would be to short as much as possible at this level, then cover at 40 cents and go long at 40 cents. Or better yet, short now, cover at 20 cents and then go long.....ooohhh, wwwaiittt a minute, why not short now, cover at 2 cents and go long?
You guys are so full of it. You are so confident it will go to 50 cents or 40 or 30 or whatever......YET there are less than 150,000 shares sold short. Either you are tiny little people with tiny little positions or you are afraid to put your money where your mouth is ....or maybe you just want it lower so you can buy at a better price?
Yes, very nice to see a bit of a rebound today. With respect to this quarter's earnings. Analyst average is $67.7mil revenue and a 24cent loss. Based on the 110-115mil ship guidance Hutch gave on about Aug 1st, revenue from HDD suspensions would be about $63.8 to $66.7mil. The big (well, not so big yet) unknown at this point is whether or not OIS are shipping in significant volumes. My guess is they maybe 1 million OIS this quarter so that would add about $2.5 to $3mil in revenue. So it seems likely we will come in right around analyst consensus revenue (which compares well to last year). As usual, it will likely come down to guidance, xxx - yyyy suspension ships for Q1 and x - y OIS ships for Q1 (I pray they start to give OIS guidance) and what is said in the cc. I think on the HDD side, ships are going to continue to grow throughout FY15 starting Oct 1 and hopefully OIS ramps quickly from today's (maybe) 1 mil/quarter to the following for Q1,2,3,4: 2, 4, 8, 16mil or something like that.
Very confident that FY15 will show significant revenue growth and be very profitable and FY16 could knock everyone's socks off.....I hope.
Thanks for the post. sgjerry is obviously a complete ignorant idiot that doesn't read PRs, listen to cc's, or the Roth or Needham presentations which were ALL PUBLIC in real time. Darren said "return to growth and profitability" on numerous occasions.
Anyway....I also saw that 25k on the bid and it did just sit there. Over the last 15 years it has been rare for MCZ to be under 50cents, every foray there is brief. What is happening now is EXACTLY the same in terms of volume and price action as what happened before the last burst to $2.50. The big volume single day spikes many months in advance, then the drop off to no volume and a drift down for 2 months before it suddenly moves up at some point in late Oct, early Nov. Bodes well. Very confident and sure since Mad Catz is a better stronger more efficient company playing in a rising tide.
Wow ceedan, you seem to have some experience with these sorts of products. That puts you ahead of me in that department....I don't buy any of this sort of stuff, I stick to guns, ammo, fishing poles, lawnmowers, #$%$ stuff....and the occasional bribe to keep the bride happy.
That said, I like the fact that a Rat looks like a Rat and Tritton a Tritton. It sort of works for every other product in every other market so why not with this stuff?
That's about as deep as I can get into the products. All my investing decisions are based on the numbers, the stock charts, and my forward outlook/guess. I know (usually) an undervalued stock when I see one....and this is one.
As an aside, there was nothing more fun in my early engineering days as playing DOOM for hour after hour with other engineers on Honeywell's dime back in the early/mid 1990s.
I added some at 4.30. Simply looks like someone decided to sell all their shares today. Pretty stupid move as he/she will realize over the next year.
Good luck to you happytrader.
I knew this would tick off some, but I truly believe it. I believe that Mad Catz is a phenomenally good "boutique" product development company that understands what hard core gamers want. The problem is there just aren't enough hard core gamers. I also believe the space in which Mad Catz or any hi tech sort of company plays is a extremely difficult space in which to stay relevant and even alive. That's why I typically invest in boring stuff like coal or newspapers or real estate. So, in my mind, the fact that Mad Catz continues to survive is proof enough that the CEO understands his core customer and the products that are required. Not I didn't say he is a marketing genious or a brilliant sales guy, he is not. But in the last cc there were glimmers of hope that he is starting to understand that (by referring to marketing to the masses, and some lower price points, and adding some marketing/sales heads). There is hope. CFOs result over the last two years stand on their own merit. She has made lemonade from lemons.
Also, this is a $35mil market cap company. You aren't going to get a "Apple CEO" or a "Seagate CEO" or a ........, be happy you have a competent one who owns enough shares to be meaningful.
I have not been drinking kool-aid but Bombay Sapphire with a bit-o-tonic & lime.
Just go with my old standbys.....Mr. CEO, do you believe the current $35million market cap represents the correct value for this company? Then immediately follow up with.....Then why haven't you been buying more shares?
The reaction of the CEO is usually very telling.
.....and I do not believe you are still an owner, but that is neither here nor there
Hi nip.....any thought or comments on NAUH? It is like DRAD in many ways but is in a hated sector right now and is at multi-year lows. I like it and own some and thinking of buying more. Maybe you are even the guy that put me on it a year or so ago? Thanks
very active bashers. Must be getting close to when the stock starts ramping upward. My opinion is that it is a 100% sure thing, 100%. I am pleased to have joined micro and a couple others as "one-percenters" in MCZ shares. Again, THANK YOU seller(s).
PS is way sub-1.
PE is sub-10 for current FY.
EV/EBITDA for current FY is too low.
Revenue is growing (this Q and beyond).
Earnings have arrived (this Q)
Insiders continue to add....and never sell.
Debt has almost completely disappeared.
Excess cash by end of current FY (truly amazing vs 40mil debt several years ago)
Established relationships with all the big boys...Amazon, Sony, Microsoft, etc.
Product line-up that is high quality, profitable.
CEO who is starting to invest heavily in his sales team and marketeers.
CEO who has kept the company alive and thriving as the world transistions to mobile.
CEO who understands his core customer.
Perhaps one of the best CEOs in terms of innovation, vision, product development.
Perhaps one of the best CFOs in terms of relentless improvement of balance sheet.
Great 1-2 tandem at the helm that compliments each other.
Predictions (just for fun)....MCZ stock price at Thanksgiving, Christmas, March 1st, Christmas 2015: $1.47, $2.42, $3.75, $7.10.......psst, don't think $7.10 is possible....EPS FY15=15cents, FY16=27cents, FY17=40cents. Maybe I should bump up Christmas 2015 to $11? Will stay conservative and keep it at $7.10.
What it says to me is that many investors are "wired" much differently than me. If I want to buy some shares or sell some shares, a penny or two means nothing. For example, if I wanted to buy those 66k shares I would put in a limit buy order at 59.5 or 60 cents to be sure I get them. If I wanted to sell those 66k shares I would do the same but in reverse, limit sell at 55 cents or maybe just sell in 2 or 3 chunks whenever I saw some quantity on the bid. The reason I think this way is that I do not own MCZ because I am looking for a 5% or 10% or 50% gain. I own it because I believe it will be a 3X-10X gainer from this level....so who cares about a penny or two.
What we don't know about the 66k is whether it is the last of maybe 300k or the first of another 300k coming. What all of us longs on this board do know is that anyone selling now is doing it at just about the worst time possible....right before the greatest (and only) multi-year run the stock has ever had....a run that will see it go past 1, past 2, past 3, past 5.....so who cares about a penny. Cheers.
That reminds me of the old joke......Whats the quickest way to become a millionaire in the stock market?........Start with 3 million.
our very eyes for the last week or so. Smart people are taking HTCH shares from not-so-smart people. Several good intra-day spikes on high volume buying......then the trickle trickle down on super low volume.....then repeat. Those trying to day trade or flip it might make a few dollars but they are going to be left without shares when it takes the next step up....maybe today, maybe next week, maybe next month...but its gonna happen .....step up, step up for the next couple years. Fun times.
hweb2, This may sound flippant but please don't take it that way....Just stop thinking so hard!......Revenue growth of almost 10% YOY with ebitda that is 10% of revenue along with a great dividend and big insider buying is a simple recipe for a rising stock price. It will work every single time whether with DRAD or any other ticker. Cheers.