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Skullcandy, Inc. (SKUL) Message Board

uptabdowntab 362 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Jul 1, 1998
  • Even though some people will, why on Earth would anyone sell shares tomorrow in the 50s?

    Usually the most obvious answers ARE correct, such as with the shelf and the limited PRs.

    Can you imagine if the opposite would have happened tonight.....sales of 15million and a big loss? So nice to enjoy these numbers.

    Even better is that DR clearly knew what he was talking about earlier this year at the Roth, and at the last couple ccs, and the Needham. Bodes well for next week in Chicago.

    I like the tag-team effort during the ccs and also operationally (apparently) with Darren and Karen. Seems to me their individual strengths are complimentary to each other and the company is benefitting.

    In my opinion, DR does occasionally re-write (too about re-slant) history with regard to "guidance". Show me one place he said revenue would be north of 22. No big deal though.

    I loved the questions in the cc from the "regular guy" with regard to advertising and marketing and PRs. Those were good points and questions and pulled some info out of the hosts.

    The cc was FILLED with optimism and excitement.

    Tomorrow will be a good day to buy even more shares, this is going on a sustained RUN for many months to come.

  • Reply to

    15, 18, 20, 23, 27...(million)

    by uptabdowntab Nov 5, 2014 11:46 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 6, 2014 4:25 PM Flag

    I guess we trade at 57 cents tomorrow morning. Cheers.

  • Reply to

    Where's the love?

    by gormless3908 Nov 6, 2014 12:51 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 6, 2014 1:47 PM Flag

    By the way, the reason someone is afraid of not getting enough Hutch susp is because demand for susp is heading up fast (incr heads/drive) AND because Hutch has the best performing susp in the guess is the resulting drive yields are higher on drives that use their heads vs. competition.

  • Reply to

    Where's the love?

    by gormless3908 Nov 6, 2014 12:51 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 6, 2014 1:45 PM Flag

    Well said, your subject line is perfect.

    With regard to the up front 15mil.....My guess is that neither WDC nor Seagate are trying to do a favor for Hutch. But rather that either WDC or Seagate is afraid to death that they will not be able to get enough suspensions from Hutch next year so this is their way of guaranteeing a supply. What sealed it for me is when they said it crystal clear in the cc that the customer is NOT getting any sort of price discount! Great deal for Hutch, they get to collect interest on 15mil for several months....and they know that 25mil of Q2 ships are already paid for.

    Like you said, where is the love?

  • Reply to

    I love it, but I don't get it?

    by binturong13 Nov 5, 2014 5:48 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 5, 2014 6:01 PM Flag

    Book Value is REAL and it is $15.50 per share.
    Coal generated 40% of US electric 5 years ago, this year, and 5 years from now and 25 years from now.
    Prez is weaker today than yesterday.

  • The analysts (and likely you and I) have no idea how to estimate OIS shipments 1,2,3 years from now. Not a clue. Sounds like Hutch might provide some rough estimates when a couple more wins are achieved or maybe over the next 3 - 6 months. Sort of neat to think about a market that has potentially 2 billion cameras. Loved that Hutch said OIS is likely to be mainstream.

    Also loved that breakeven is now 130 susp but will fall through the course of current FY. This makes sense since it is absorbing all the OIS development costs and is why breakeven was thought to be 122-125 a year ago. Also suggests confidence in the OIS ramp.

    Avg share count for Q1 is 30mil.

  • Reply to

    Upward Revisions

    by kebko Nov 5, 2014 4:41 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 5, 2014 5:02 PM Flag

    My guess is every Q this FY will be EPS positive. Pretty impressive that the money generated from HDD has funded the OIS development. The payoff is starting.

  • Reply to

    How did that feel Shorts?

    by apdamic Nov 5, 2014 4:23 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 5, 2014 4:51 PM Flag

    Congrats on your gain......but hang on to some for the long term. When it is $20/share in a year or two you will be even happier.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Miss

    by tgagrippa Nov 5, 2014 4:33 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 5, 2014 4:48 PM Flag

    I got to OIS of 2.5mil by taking 117.1 x .58 = 67.9million and comparing that to the reported revenue.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Miss

    by tgagrippa Nov 5, 2014 4:33 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 5, 2014 4:40 PM Flag

    You should try the earnings release PR yourself and try thinking for yourself. Rev was slightly above consensus, EPS was slightly below....the important things are they guided up for the current quarter, significantly. Without any contribution from OIS, the current quarter beats consensus revenue estimates. The relentless march upward in HDD suspension ships will continue. And now OIS is ramping up this quarter as well. Seems to me it contributed about 2 - 2.5mil in revenue in Q4 and I would guess it should be several times that in Q1. Should be an interesting cc.

    Everything intact. Lots of reasons to buy, no reasons to sell. Cheers.

  • Reply to

    Great potential

    by jiayao.lin Nov 4, 2014 9:21 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 5, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    I agree with you. 6 months ago, the current leadership said they would realize some tremendous revenue growth over the next year. The next two earnings reports will tell the tale as to whether it is just "potential" or whether it is real. I keep adding shares but confidence level is not high. Need some sort of confirmation from the company leadership.

  • Reply to

    Rev numbers for 2Q

    by nanocaptrader Nov 5, 2014 1:40 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 5, 2014 1:48 PM Flag

    You have bad data, there are 723million hogs in China in 2014. But I "liked" your post anyway. Scientific methods are always appreciated.

  • Reply to

    15, 18, 20, 23, 27...(million)

    by uptabdowntab Nov 5, 2014 11:46 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 5, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    "Gee whiz"...I like that. Roomates?....then where would my wife and kids live?...."Own apartment".....I already own a whole bunch of them, why would I want more? Cheers

  • uptabdowntab by uptabdowntab Nov 5, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    38, 45, 52, 58, 65 (cents)
    This is where MZC will trade 48 hours from now depending on revenue reported tomorrow evening.

    135 (cents)
    This is where MCZ will trade 3 months from now regardless of whether Sept Q was 15 or 27million.

    Just wastin time with guesses. Good luck all.

  • Reply to

    could mad Catz beat with big buzz?

    by swisslakes Nov 5, 2014 3:36 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 5, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    Last year was 17.8million for the Sept Q.

    Right now the stock is trading as if this year's Sept Q was about 15million. Based on all the CEO comments over the last several months (Roth, last cc, Needham), revenue dang well better be at least 18million worse case. Anything over 20million and the stock will start moving up strong.

  • Reply to

    $4 by end of November

    by vgabrq Nov 5, 2014 8:14 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 5, 2014 8:19 AM Flag

    Maybe by the end of today. Buy the stock, buy the calls, sure thing 8 bagger over the next 12-24 months.

  • of MCZ? Just another mystery of the universe.

  • Reply to

    Relatively low volume affair.

    by anhyun46 Nov 4, 2014 10:54 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 4, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    The most awesome thing ever would be if volume in ANR dries up to nothing. That will scare the shorts more than anything. Until they are gone, we will not move up.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Nov 3, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    Welcome back! My guess is there will be some encouraging OIS news late Wednesday or Thursday morning from both Hutch and Cambridge. If you do the math on Q4, it suggests they may have shipped upwards of 1 million OIS assys in Q4.....though I really don't even know if "assys" is the correct terminology. The #1 reason to own the stock is for the HDD suspension business, that is really all that matters. The ship volume and revenue and earnings are going to build steadily quarter after quarter after quarter until they have at least 33-35% market share. Maybe it takes 6 quarters, maybe 8, maybe 12, doesn't matter. At 33% market share, EPS will be impressive, likely pushing $1/share and that is with zero contribution from OIS or their surgical blade development or anything else.

    Analyst's have to start increasing their estimates, they already look stupid low. Good luck to us and all.

    ....Also, spend 15 minutes digging into is a good one to buy now.

  • uptabdowntab by uptabdowntab Nov 3, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    Good time to be adding shares. A bit of consolidation after going over 15 cents. Should move up to 20 - 25 cents either later next week or the following. Earnings report will likely be on the 14th. I sort of doubt if they will be all that great but the current quarter and all of next year's quarters will be fantastic. Trading at 13 cents now, worth 30-35cents right now. Cheers.

9.01+0.13(+1.46%)Nov 21 4:00 PMEST

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