Maybe I'm way wrong but this is why I bought some....
Management clearly stated they want to take the company private. Only way to do that is to buy my shares. Only way to do that without getting tied up in court is to pay me book value.
Now I'm not totally stupid, I realize they can play some games and manipulate some numbers and strong arm a few of us into a #$%$ deal....but their book value looks reasonable and is in the public domain and they have demonstrated that they are willing to pay north of $1.50 per share.....so time will tell.
I don't know for sure. It is just a guess based on what watching trades execute.
I'm not much of a chart guy or short term trading guy. I buy stocks that I feel are undervalued and I'm willing to wait days, weeks, months, and sometimes years for them to reach or surpass fair value (my estimate of it).
With TA, all I know for sure is that it can not sustain an EV/EBITDA of 2.1.
Take it for what it was, a meaningless drop caused by a silly person entering a market sell order on 20k shares. Another name for it....a gift. I bought more at 7.14. Cheers.
Good list and spot on.
The interesting thing about the list is that only one of them (in my opinion) is meaningful to the company's (as opposed to the stocks) performance - the contribution of the wholly-owned sites. Nat gas will not be a meaningful contributor in any way for at least 5 or 10 years.
That said, it is likely that any of the other three (natgas, activist, outlook) will probably have a bigger impact on the stock (as opposed to the company) performance.....which is why investing is still not an exact science, more like part analysis, part psychology, part gut feel, part chart, etc.
Q4 Net Income will be a loss of about $2million, slightly better than last year's Q4 loss of $2.5million. In my opinion of course. Cheers.
Better than expected is unlikely in this business. That is sort of the beauty of the business, it is reliable, repeatable, and expandable. Sure, incremental changes can be made to boost results a bit but that's about it.
I do believe TA goes much higher but purely because the EV/EBITDA of 2.1 cannot be sustained. They deserve at least a 5 multiple....which means I expect $17 to $20 per share in the next year or so.
I just don't think this is going to be influenced much one way or the other by quarterly results.
I first took a look due to m.swanger's mention on the LEE board....then it got a little more attention when I read about the 1.50 offer verses the sub-1 price.....then I got sort of excited when I looked at the balance sheet and saw assets much greater than liabilities and very little goodwill. I agree with you about the fishy smell which is why I bought so few shares. If nothing else, this will force me to follow it and find out how the end game plays out.
If the strategy is to take it dark (never heard anyone put it that way before but I like how you said it), I would have to think it might be a brilliant strategy at this point. Simply sell off all the assets, pay off all the debts, and split what's left with all the shareholders.....which could result in about $2.50 per share. To steal the Polaris (PII) motto....that might be "The Way Out".
Great minds think alike, good move. I can personally vouch for three new shareholders on my end in the last week as well.
I just read the cc transcript.....the part I liked is that they seem pretty clear about their forward strategy and that implementation and improvements should be obvious and significant by Q3 & Q4. I was sort of afraid they might drag things out much longer. I will likely add shares over the next couple weeks.
hi tom, truer words have never been spoken. Just to show you how much I enjoy pain, I recently established small new positions in BODY, SSY, LEE. I've always been tempted by IMN, but never pulled the trigger. Eventually they are bound to do something right. Cheers.
Just read through the cc transcript. The Tieton guy asked some rather interesting questions, nice to see such candor.
Seems to me that LoJack is teetering on the edge of some big successes. Hopefully the new team is the right one to pull it off. If they get Brazil arbitration out of the way this year and execute on their product/marketing plans, this could be a heck of a good stock in about 18 months.
I admire your efforts and agree with you, BUT it is not going to help. You need to change your approach slightly or take a multi-pronged approach.
Go through the steps and red tape to get your proposal on the annual ballot.
Issue a formal press release as a shareholder pointing out the same.
Show up in person at the annual meeting and ask pointed questions.
Organize a picket in front of their office pointing out the same.
Buy up enough stock to get over 5% ownership and someone might listen.
I wish it weren't so.
Hi m.swanger, It was your mention of ssy on the LEE board that pushed me over the edge. If the balance sheet is real, we'll come out of this ok. It might just be a case of one single fund wanting out no matter what, simple house cleaning for them....causing a world of hurt for shareholders. Happens alot with the thinnly traded micros. Time will tell.
Stock might be struggling today but it is still a cash generating machine with a pristine balance sheet and great healthy dividend. Good day to buy. Cheers.
I sort of stumbled across BODY a few weeks back and the more I learned, the more I like it. So this morning it was time to start building a position.
Let's hope the new Management steps up and makes some significant open market buys.