Funny. When I saw your subject line, I was worried. Thought maybe you "tapped out" like in the mixed martial arts fighting octagon. Glad to see you are still fighting!
I also took advantage. Just bizarre but I think it is nothing more than margin calls and fear and stupidity.
We all should have seen it coming, so obvious...
....balance sheet with exploding debt (ah, er not really, virtually no debt)
....stock valuation way above market (ah, er, not really, PS & PE extremely low)
....coming up on the slow part of the year (huh, Xmas is coming)
....sales continue falling with no hope in sight (wwwhhhhaaat....RB4, Capcom)
....clearly no capital available to grow sales (not what the CFO just said)
.....maybe emory really did have another 200k to sell? (perhaps)
No one else see's it either even though it is very likely to happen.
You are missing 2 things. First, Hutch ships suspension assys, not hard disc drives. Suspension TAM will be up over FY15 due to #/heads per drive. Second, Hutch continues to gain share at Seagate, this will continue to play out over the next couple years.
If HTCH stock is not trending strongly higher by the end of this calendar year, I will give up on it and move on.
micro, No interpretation or reading between the lines. The "tens of millions" was from during the Q&A a couple cc's ago. Penn was being pushed hard and relentlessly by an analyst and the analyst finally said "so, tens of millions in FY16?" and Penn answered crystal clear "yes".
My opinion....HTCH will have positive EPS in FY16. Required OIS ships = 0.
So true. I have not been right at all lately. It's gotten so bad that I'll be happy to be like a broken mechanical clock and be correct twice a day. I do keep adding a few shares here and there, I just stay away from the message boards more when it is ugly....no need to torture oneself....and it's Summer.
Per Hutch cc's: Rev per OIS is about $2.25. Cambridge gets nothing until Hutch is profitable. My guess....OIS will be profitable at extremely low volumes, likely sub-4mil units per quarter. As they said a couple cc's ago, Hutch will ship at least "tens of millions" of OIS assys in the FY starting Oct 1. 50million ships is an extra 112mil in revenue and EPS of 20 to 40 cents.
Your assumption about HDD susp ship rates staying at current is a poor one. Upcoming Q4/Q1 will be strong, stronger than last Q4/Q1....which was stronger than the prior, etc. The quarters that are sporadic are Q2/3. Thing is, if you look at the history, weak times are ALWAYS followed by exceptionally strong times since it is simply pent up demand.
Best case for both of us would be for MCZ to spike to $4 at the same time HTCH spikes to $1.....doubt the timing works out that way though. Hutch said they would announce some OIS wins in late Summer and that should be enough to double or triple the stock overnight. Heck, even the HTCH short interest has dropped a bit. That surprised me.
I sure hope up. It really can't go any lower as it is already effectively Zero. I've been wrong on lots of stuff lately so probably not the best person to ask.
If ANR management decides to take the easy way out and declare bankruptcy then the stock will be Zero. If they decide to do a bit of work and sell some assets, buy back some debt, close some mines, etc. then the stock will be just fine. Their assets are real and their book value is real. Far more real than a company like HERO that took the easy way out and shafted the shareholders.
I think several things are happening. First, as bulbhead said below, investors are worried about the worse-than-normal seasonal weakness in both the current and upcoming quarter in suspensions due to PC weakness. Second, there is across the board weakness in tiny company stocks, many are as beaten down as HTCH and there are simply no buyers. Third, investors are in a "show me first" mentality and not willing to pay ahead so Hutch and HTCH get zero credit for upcoming OIS ramps. I had hoped $2 would hold, but now looks like we test 5 year lows.
I do wish they would give us an OIS update, but I suppose that will come in late July with the quarterly earnings release. Cheers all.
If you really want a "head scratcher" listen to last evenings MCZ cc and earnings release. The company told everyone point blank that the current FY will have approx. 100% revenue growth and EPS of 20 - 30 cents.....and the stock is at 46 cents! I could give you a list of 20 other micro stocks in similar positions so HTCH is not unique. Maybe that is where the misery loves company saying came from?
409,000 shares at the end of May to 218,000 shares at June 15th.
one thing.....that MCZ opens flat to down tomorrow morning. What an awesome gift that would be to all of us longs that want to add more or even add their first shares (like emory). A gift.
Just think about what was said in tonight's cc. SAID, not implied, not hinted at, not read betwixt the lines...but what was SAID:
1. YES....we have enough capital to handle the opportunity in front of us.
2. RB4 will result in more than the extra $60mil that RB3 did.
3. FY16 will be profitable with tons-o-cash-generation.
And what was NOT SAID....."inflection point". Finally.
sell every other stock we own and buy more MCZ shares. How on Earth is it sub-$1 based on what was just said in that CC. We got EVERYTHING in the way of guidance. Not one person here could have hoped for more. Wow!
FY ebitda was positive, that's why they could take the benefit. So, this tells me that FY16 could easily be a GAAP net profit of 25 to 30 cents.
Very nice all around. Great time to buy shares. All the seeds planted in the last 6 months are going to be sprouting and producing for a couple three years to come.....and the rewards to longs will be great.
Soft bashing is always the most effective kind. You do it well. I take it you have now started to accumulate some shares. HDD susp ships will be their usual seasonally soft this Q and next. Q1/Q4 will be strongest ever. You should really do some OIS sleuthing online, it is remarkable what one can learn. Multiple wins have been had and you can figure out the companies with a bit of effort. Welcome aboard micro!
Just my two bits....
I think DR's strengths are his vision and rapid on-target product development.
One weakness is "follow-through/stick-to-it-tiveness". He seems to always want to get on to the next thing rather than developing/milking the current thing to its max potential. I would also argue that from an organization standpoint he has failed to bring on board (or internally develop) someone(s) who can accurately predict required product demand.
My final point is something that I mentioned a year or two ago and firmly believe. I think Mad Catz heavy sponsorship in tourneys and financially backing some of the winners is brilliant. There is clearly an effort underway to turn these guys into stars just like the Nascar drivers or the X-games snowboarders. It is happening.
If product rankings/preorder rankings are based on "number of units" then we are beyond gold, absolutely spectacular. If these rankings are based on dollar value or some sort of combination of "number or units" and "dollar value" and "clicks" and whatever else, then we really have no way to know.