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Skullcandy, Inc. Message Board

uptabdowntab 314 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: Jul 1, 1998
  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 13, 2016 11:11 AM Flag

    micro, With longs like you and hogryder, who needs bashers? You guys are fabulous with the "soft bash" whether you know it or not, very effective. I'm still not sure about you guys.

    Look at the post, you say something positive/encouraging, then immediately imply a bigger negative. Like I said, effective.

    People here keep thinking the stock and the company are the same thing. Just stupid. Over the short term (months) they are completely independent things that only match up correctly every year or three....usually by accident.

    People bashing DR are also being stupid as he is certainly delivering strong revenue growth and profitability and cash generation this FY. We can argue about forward prospects but there is certainly enough "there" to make a strong case that FY17 will be even stronger than current FY16. In this industry (basically any hi tech, consumer product, short-life products) it is IMPOSSIBLE to deliver profitable growth year after year after year. There isn't one company in the universe that has ever done it for more than 5 or 6 years in a row.

    Until the lesson of Q2 is replaced with the reality of Q3, not much will happen.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 12, 2016 6:11 PM Flag

    1am CDT.....tick, tock.

    It has nothing to do with your trades. I always hope everyone makes money. I hope you do well with your investments.

    I simply don't like you. No big deal.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 12, 2016 5:54 PM Flag

    I've decided to delete all your posts. They will disappear at 1am central time tonight. Sorry.

  • many companies end. We wake up one day and see a headline saying the company is being sold for 2 or 3X the current (at that time) share price.

    Why? Because it actually makes sense for someone to do it. Maybe Harmonix, maybe Private equity, maybe Logitech, maybe Facebook, etc. The company has some valuable assets....relationships, design capability, pulse on the market, cash generation, etc.

  • Reply to

    Headphones crash

    by jymbow7 Jan 12, 2016 5:21 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 12, 2016 5:32 PM Flag

    Very true.....but not just headphone companies. Virtually every small cap company stock has crashed hard over the last month or so. Many I track are down 20%, 50%, some 80%. Very few deserved it, yet even the really strong companies (rev growth, profits, no debt, good prospects) have been pounded. Today was especially brutal to many.

    If you actually compare MCZ to most, it has done reasonably well.......and is about the only one set for a +200% revenue quarter that is nicely profitable.....and with forward prospects that look very good (VR, Saitek, Capcom, Samsung, RB4 addons, etc.).

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 12, 2016 4:40 PM Flag

    I do admire your efforts at trying to estimate the numbers. The thing is, none of us have any idea what the quantity is of RB4 sold and none of us know "blended wholesale $" either. If the $130 is really $110 or $150 then the answer is much different. Likewise if the quantity is 400k or 500k or 600k.

    What I do like with all these estimates is that it seems very likely that Q3 revenue will be between $60million and $120million and EPS between 5cents and 20cents. Compared to last years Q3, any of these numbers will be spectacular and will go a long way towards erasing the lesson of the recent Q2 (positive EPS is impossible).

    I would still like to see Mad Catz be a bit proactive and issue a prerelease together with some forward guidance either later this week or Jan 18th at the latest. Perhaps package it with the PR announcing the formal release date and cc.

    All I do know is that the company is worth more than the current market cap and enterprise value. Multiples more.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 12, 2016 7:52 AM Flag

    ....and it really does make it easier to own and have patience with TA! least for me.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 12, 2016 7:49 AM Flag

    It is a great time to buy HPT. They are smart and well run. I do not know about their interest expense profile.

    Like most other good dividend payers, they have been pulled down a bit due to fears of a fast interest rate rise.

    I am pretty certain they raise their dividend a couple pennies later this year.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 11, 2016 9:47 PM Flag

    The stock has been kind to me as well. I last sold at about 12.5 and am now just starting to buy back in, was waiting for sub-8 although I sort of think it goes into the upper 6s. Several years before that, also made a few dollars per share on a trade. So this is the 3rd time for me.

    (I also own HPT and simply keep adding shares to that one. Will hold it forever. Makes it easier to overlook all the TA conflicts of interest and relationships.)

  • Reply to

    SKUL tanking after hours

    by chickentraderr Jan 11, 2016 9:24 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 11, 2016 9:38 PM Flag

    Every MCZ shareholder should read SKUL's update. It is exceedingly bullish for Mad Catz.

    SKUL just said that sales would be flat vs. year ago rather than their previous guidance of +6%. Sort of seems like no big deal.....BUT they also said this would decrease expected EPS from +39cents to +23cents.

    This illustrates the extreme leverage these companies get with respect to earnings when sales rise or fall. Mad Catz sales are going to be up almost 200% verses year ago when they broke even!

    Now read the ONE REASON given by SKUL for the shortfall......"a market shift to a higher percentage of gaming headsets."

    Thank you chickentraderr, finally a nice contribution to this message board.

  • Reply to

    Investing ideas for 2016

    by carpinus1 Jan 10, 2016 7:28 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 11, 2016 9:05 PM Flag

    Within the past few days I've been adding to my shares of RFP, NWY, IPI, TA, MCZ, CDI, VTSI.

    With respect to the underlying companies, RFP making smart moves and will pay off big in several years, NWY is growing top line and has top notch balance sheet but it is not a long term hold (sell when it doubles), TA is a good one to start building a position as long as you promise to sell the next time it rises up through about 13 or 14 but might take a year or two, MCZ will either be a 5 bagger by mid February or mid June, IPI and CDI valuations are simply too low. Nice dividend on CDI. VTSI is the one company hitting on all cylinders and with the best forward prospects but the stock is thinly traded..

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 11, 2016 5:10 PM Flag

    Now I know you are a liar. It was NOT POSSIBLE to short 35,000 shares at 40 cents today. I know this for a FACT based on the number of shares I purchased. You dweeb.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 11, 2016 5:01 PM Flag

    When I say "excess cash" I mean exactly that, add up all the cash and all the debt and add those two numbers together and the result will be a positive number. And this means all debt, both short and long term. When I say "this quarter" or "current quarter" I am talking about the quarter that ends at the end of March.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 11, 2016 4:45 PM Flag

    How do you think VGChartz comes up with their guesses? There is a clue in my use of the word guesses. They are not and never have been a credible organization.

    There are likely only 5 people in the world right now that know the RB4 sales numbers....2 or 3 at Mad Catz and 2 or 3 at Harmonix. No one here finds out until the next earnings release and cc.

  • Reply to

    Sold the 35K long for a loss and went short

    by stockcollextion Jan 11, 2016 4:37 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 11, 2016 4:40 PM Flag

    Excellent decision, you will likely make 200 to 300% from here to zero. Wish I had the nerve to do something like that. Wow.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 11, 2016 4:24 PM Flag

    meifud, Seriously dude, are like a wreetard? This news is about 3 months old and not news at all. Also not the first time either not that you would ever let facts get in the way of your story.

    FACT: At end of this current quarter, balance sheet will have zero debt and excess cash. Current Assets will be approx 1.3X Current Liabilities.

    FACT: Why did you buy shares today if you post such garbage and express hate for the stock?

    All MCZ does is print money, another green close today!

    You are a piece of work......but entertaining!

  • Reply to

    Wow now it's crashing?

    by stokluver Jan 11, 2016 10:39 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 11, 2016 3:26 PM Flag

    Based on your obsession with me, it would appear I am in your mind.

    By the way, today is THE greatest day I have ever had in the stock market in terms of fun and profit.....and truly basking in the glory of a wide-left shanked field goal. It doesn't get any better than this for a GB fan.

    Hang in there, you can keep striving to be like me! You will always have your dreams.

  • Reply to

    Wow now it's crashing?

    by stokluver Jan 11, 2016 10:39 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 11, 2016 2:57 PM Flag

    Sort of fun to feel like a genius for a change. The historical chart of NAII is what is scary......simply because it can drop so far, so fast for no reason at all. Weird.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jan 11, 2016 2:52 PM Flag

    Exactly, low fuel prices will greatly increase their EPS. Think of all the extra miles being driven this Spring and Summer. Also, all the extra money in pockets for convenience store type items and snacks/food/cigs. I also think the Oct/Nov/Dec quarter will exceed guesstimates given the great weather and miles driven. EV/EBITDA is way below 2. As always.....amazing. Good to see you here as well happytrader!

  • keep HPT forever and trade TA every year or three. Start buying in to TA now/soon.....and relax.

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