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Skullcandy, Inc. Message Board

uptabdowntab 292 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 minutes ago Member since: Jul 1, 1998
  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Dec 31, 2015 10:17 PM Flag

    Oh, and let me add, even if the Minimums listed for Oct and Nov and Dec are Actuals, that would be excellent. As far as what it equates to in EPS, only Mad Catz knows but it could be anywhere from about 6 cents to 18.5 cents.

  • good news. A few points:

    1. The ebitda numbers listed are clearly labeled as MINIMUM. Obviously the company actual performance for Oct and Nov and Dec is ABOVE those numbers.

    2. Q4 starts TOMORROW and company just told us that Q4 will be even better than Q3!

    3. Under the most pessimistic reading of this, the company will be profitable for this FY and maybe very profitable.

    4. Add up those ebitda numbers for a full FY, you get a MINIMUM number of well over 18million. The company will have zero debt at end of this FY. Ever see a profitable company with a decent balance sheet and growing sales that is worth less than 10X ebitda? NO.

    5. The ebitda numbers listed are clearly labeled as MINIMUM.

    6. This one might be wishful thinking but had the company sold even 1 share via ATM in the quarter, we would have seen the SEC filing tonight along with this one.

    Happy New Year

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Dec 31, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    I probably don't track stuff as close as you, but looking at my stock market numbers I would guess I lost about 12 - 15% during the calendar year. Biggest losers for me were the coal stocks.....anr, aci. Thank heavens I own some stuff I can walk on.....land, waterfront, apartments, etc.

    2016 will be good and it makes no difference to us small company pickers as to what the overall markets do. HTCH should finally be put out of its misery at $4 in Feb/March. MCZ will be multiples higher than where it is today. VTSI (the company) is surging and the stock is starting to warm up. NWY is setting up for a pop soon, PNNT just prints money, BAC can only go up, and many more. I bought a few shares of 3 new ones today and have a couple more on the radar.....once I'm in I'll let ya know!

    Well done micro!

  • uptabdowntab by uptabdowntab Dec 30, 2015 1:42 PM Flag

    is simply a stock that is out of tune with the company. Happens all the time in the markets for just about every stock and is the only reason stock pickers like many here do extremely well. It is rare for any company to be trading at "fair value". Just pull up a 1 or 2 year stock chart for just about any company, there are peaks and valleys and up trends and down trends. Was the market correct at the peak or correct at the bottom. The price of any stock at any given moment is 100% driven by supply and demand of shares and has nothing to do with company performance. All that people like me hope for (and expect) is that over the longer term, the stock price and company performance will eventually meet and maybe cross. Sometimes this takes months, sometimes years. Until something triggers owners to hang on to their shares and makes buyers want to buy shares, nothing much will happen. Seems to me there are at least 3 SIGNIFICANT events happening over the next 6 months that might do the trick. Early Feb Q3 results, early June Q4 results, and probably something none of us are even aware of at this time. Happy New Year all.

  • Reply to

    I'm new here

    by burgoo Dec 29, 2015 2:31 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Dec 30, 2015 12:50 PM Flag

    Aaahhhh! That sure explains your vtsioriginal moniker. None of my business, but I am curious as to approximately how many of the 158million outstanding shares you own? A few hundred thousand or a few million or more?

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Dec 30, 2015 12:00 PM Flag

    Oh emory.....Happy New Year! You must have finished up your buying of MCZ shares as that is about the most optimistic posting I have ever read from you. 2016 will be beautiful.

  • Reply to

    When will TDK deal close?

    by carpinus1 Dec 29, 2015 5:02 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Dec 29, 2015 5:45 PM Flag

    My guess is between Feb 15 and March 7th. Nice to see shares getting gobbled up, apparently funds want a sure-thing +10% in first calendar quarter.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Dec 29, 2015 5:32 PM Flag

    10,000,000 million is equal to 10 trillion......so, you are correct, he will not be taking a 10 trillion dollar loss.

  • Reply to

    I'm new here

    by burgoo Dec 29, 2015 2:31 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Dec 29, 2015 4:34 PM Flag

    Hi burgoo, You say "We bought in...." Is that a "We" as in you and a spouse or a "We" as in you and an investment club or "We" as in you and your clients? Just curious. Thank you,

    I started buying in October, 2009 and have added in many shares since then including some up through a week or two ago. My avg price is about 7 cents.

    Another question.....How did you find VTSI?

    Good luck to you.

  • only has 20mil shares and is now post-bankruptcy? Do people really believe oil stays at $35 for the next 5 years? It is impossible to imagine a portfolio where HERO doesn't have at least a small place. Market cap is $46million!!!

  • I have 99% certainty that at some point in 2016 we will all look back at this time and realize that it was truly a tremendous buying opportunity.

    I have met several different CEOs at 4 different companies where I have worked and maybe another 3 whose company stock I owned. Some were good, some were average, but all had big egos, all cared about making money (for the company, for themselves), and none of them would ever want to be the CEO of anything worth 40cents. There is zero doubt that DR wants Mad Catz to become something big and, worse case, wants MCZ to be worth multiple dollars. Every CEO also wants to move on to bigger and better.

    The last day to sell MCZ and take a capital loss for 2015 is on December 31st. IRS goes by trade date, not settlement date.

    Current MCZ market cap is likely less than 1/3rd of current quarter's revenue. Crazy times. Notice analyst EPS estimates for Q4 starting 4 days from now have increased a couple three cents!

    Will Mad Catz pre-announce in mid-January or wait until formal announcement date in early Feb? Most likely is they wait until early Feb.

    Cheers.

  • Reply to

    I've sold half my position this morning....

    by fabulouspoodle Dec 28, 2015 10:06 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Dec 28, 2015 2:03 PM Flag

    Well done! The scariest thing about this stock is how (in the past) fast it can drop (and for little reason).

  • Reply to

    HTI, OIS venture with Cambridge

    by carpinus1 Dec 25, 2015 9:52 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Dec 28, 2015 11:53 AM Flag

    That sure was an ugly game....but there is still hope. Even yesterday, if the QB doesn't throw the interception right before halftime, the score is 10-3 at half and the Packers would be receiving the 2nd half kickoff.

    I still think the Pack's #1 problem is the inability of the QB to let go of the ball, he needs to drop back, plant, and let her fly. Maybe the good thing with yesterday's debacle is that the QB and offense will stop caring about meaningless stats and start caring about getting wins.

  • Reply to

    HTI, OIS venture with Cambridge

    by carpinus1 Dec 25, 2015 9:52 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Dec 28, 2015 11:49 AM Flag

    twomambo2, I do not understand your post..."Still running product OIS"...?? Can you explain....Thank You.

  • Reply to

    MCZ in 2016

    by hopeful200 Dec 24, 2015 4:31 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Dec 27, 2015 5:33 PM Flag

    I apologize in advance for a serious post.....

    While it is obvious to you and I that Mad Catz will have great revenue and earnings in Q3 (AND Q4), it is NOT obvious to most traders, investors, fund/institutional managers. Q2 EPS hurt perceptions greatly (good for us buyers). Many believe that no matter what revenue number Mad Catz puts forth, they will never be profitable. That is the lesson (wrongly) of Q2.

    Furthermore, in spite of what the bash-n-buy guys say, Mad Catz IS NOT a leaky ship with respect to information. It never has been. In fact, it is brutally easy to prove this simply by looking at how the stock reacts to recent earning's reports. It always moves significantly.

    Then there are some powerful overall market forces at play that have resulted in the stock market becoming much more reactionary than it used to be. It no longer always looks forward, but more often looks in the rear view mirror. For example, look how long it took for NAII to start moving after the earnings report of about 4 or 5 months ago.

    So I truly doubt if the stock makes a significant (over $1) move until we see some Q3 numbers from the company. Until then, buy more if you can. At least we only have somewhere between 10 and 30 trading days to wait. A mere blink of the eye.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Dec 24, 2015 11:20 AM Flag

    As a further "aside", the US should take over Canada. It would solve many problems. It will only get more difficult now that the Canada military will be trained.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Dec 24, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    Just went and took another look, Canada gov site says 3 weeks and 3 hours to closing! So should be official around January 14/15 timeframe.....so maybe a PR with a $2million in the headline the 3rd or 4th week of Jan! Also says contract to be fulfilled by March 31, 2016.....but it doesn't seem like those dates are always rock solid.

    We know 2015 will likely be 25-40% above 2014.....and I now think it is safe to say that 2016 will be well above 2015.....in terms of revenue, EPS, and cash generation.

    There appears to be 271000 shares for sale at 14 cents right now.....tempting!

  • board as to the details. VirTra was the only company allowed to "bid". In other words the buyer knew what they wanted and who they wanted it from! Looks to be in the $1.5 to $2mil range? I couldn't find the exact number, perhaps someone else has it. Not sure if it has been awarded yet or if we have to wait a number of days. This keeps getting better and better.

    As an aside, I don't think to much of several of the IHUB posters, but they do do a good job finding these orders ahead of when the company issues the PR. They are all often public records when purchased by governments.

  • Reply to

    OT: NWY

    by uptabdowntab Dec 23, 2015 10:54 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Dec 23, 2015 3:52 PM Flag

    So why did you delete your own message stating that you sold all your NAII at 7.4x for a 17% gain?

  • Reply to

    OT: NWY

    by uptabdowntab Dec 23, 2015 10:54 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Dec 23, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    Hi tga, I have actually kept my eyes on about 30 companies in the retail sector for many years, but rarely ever dip my toe....and typically when I do it doesn't turn out well. I've watched NWY especially closely over the last few years because my wife buys tons of clothes there. When we go to the MOA in Twin Cities or Appleton, WI mall, that is where she spends our money. Also lots of online purchases. A couple three years ago when it got so low and then rose to 5 or 6 I kicked myself for not buying. So this time when it got down close to 2 I was ready to buy some. They really do have a great balance sheet and are at least cash flow positive and might make 15 - 30 cents in EPS in upcoming year. But yea, I hate owning a clothing retailer with lots of presence in dying malls. That said, I figure women are always going to love to shop so as long as the retailer is savvy, some will survive. Also makes me feel better about paying off their credit card each month. When it gets to 5 or 6 I will be out.

SKUL
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