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TravelCenters of America LLC Message Board

uptabdowntab 324 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Jul 1, 1998
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  • 1.5mil share volume. That's about 1% of the total shares each day. If that could rise to 4 - 6million, I'm certain many more would take positions.

  • drive TAM for Sept quarter of about 145million. Bodes well for Hutch and others. Also sounds like they expect the market to stay strong for a long time.

    Switching gears a bit, I wonder if those holding the 1 million shorted HTCH share positions are starting to do the math on how long it might take to cover when the daily volume is 40,000 shares?

    Now going off on a real tangent....it would be interesting to hear someone ask the HTCH CEO about both their "surgical knife blade" and "optical camera stabilizer" developments and whether they could become meaningful within a year or two?

    Just idling the time away until good numbers are reported in late October and January and beyond. Of course Friday's cc should be interesting as well.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab 14 hours ago Flag

    I sort of think DR has already said that Q2 would be profitable. At least that is my interpretation from what he said at the Roth when he said "second half of the year".....though throughout that preso it seemed to me they were never crystal clear as to whether they meant CY or FY any number of times. As stupid as this sounds, I cannot imagine a scenario where they are not profitable in Q2, my how far we've come.

    But you are right, if he clarifies with a bit of concrete and optimism we will be at $1 in a big hurry....my guess would be before noon (ET or CT or PT....I'll leave it fuzzy) on Tuesday (which Tuesday?....hmmmmm). That is why the most obvious interpretation is usually the one meant.

    Fun times for all.......even today is bullish since it is such an obvious walk down, and they aren't really making any progress. Tic toc tic.

  • Reply to

    SPDC LAWSUIT LOST

    by alecdingle 23 hours ago
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab 17 hours ago Flag

    Dear alecdingle, Not only is it stupid to post a lie of this sort on a message board, it is illegal and the company could go after you if they wish. Plus, any SPDC stockholder would also have grounds to sue you as well. Even if you are not the sharpest knife on the Christmas tree that is not an excuse. Cheers.

  • Reply to

    seller

    by llewellynlord Jul 29, 2014 8:13 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab 17 hours ago Flag

    The seller should just log in to this message board and tell us his/her rationale. That would sure save a lot of speculation over, in my opinion, nothing.

    The volume is still about nothing. Further, would you rather have it ramp up hard into earnings anticipating some sort of blowout that ain't gonna happen .....or trade sideways in a wait-n-see mode. My vote is sideways but none of it matters because the Sept and Dec quarters are all that matter.

  • Reply to

    Beautiful opportunity

    by uptabdowntab Jul 29, 2014 3:29 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 29, 2014 5:06 PM Flag

    Depends on the timeframe.....likely MCZ does the best over the next 18 months.....likely HTCH
    does the best over the next 3 years.....VTSI is impossible to predict I'd be happy to get out at 20 cents within 3 - 5 years.

  • Reply to

    Beautiful opportunity

    by uptabdowntab Jul 29, 2014 3:29 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 29, 2014 4:20 PM Flag

    At this point I don't worry too much about why the person is selling for the following reasons....
    - Overall volume is still very light, buying in volume is still impossible
    - Many other microcaps are beaten down to a pulp so maybe the guy likes something else
    - MadCatz has been GREAT about keeping their numbers quiet until the earnings release, there simply are no leaks as evidenced by how the stock often jumps up/down immediately after.
    - Perhaps it is big buyer from the 40s who wants to lighten a bit ahead of earnings, though I sort of doubt it because if you look at the number of shares bought sub-44 cents, it really isn't very many.
    - Overall stock market stinks of late, makes some nervous.

    hmmmm, in rereading the above, not sure if I convinced myself of anything. All I know is that the MadCatz PS and PE are way too low and revenue, earnings, and cash are going to rise fast.....and the stock price too!

  • uptabdowntab by uptabdowntab Jul 29, 2014 3:29 PM Flag

    Some shares sitting there at .6299.....I took 15000 of those and 10000 more earlier today. Cheers all.

  • Reply to

    When you're a 5 cent stock, any publicity is

    by uptabdowntab Jul 28, 2014 4:44 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 29, 2014 7:52 AM Flag

    If you google "Brian Hicks Virtra" it will show up half way down your screen.

  • good publicity. Today's Brian Hicks article is better than a poke in the eye. His conclusion and reasoning is sound, I just wish he would have went into a little more detail with regard to valuation metrics. I wonder if Miller had anything to do with prompting the article? I doubt it though.

    The way I see this playing out is that one day (soon?) VTSI is going to announce a $4 or $5 or $6million dollar quarter and we're going to blink twice and the stock will be at 15 cents. Then more positive vibes and it's 25 cents. Then we all know it's stupid crazy but the stock blows up to 50 cents. Wouldn't take much.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 28, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    Hi ron, My take on what DR said in the last cc is that revenue for the Apr/May/Jun quarter will be flat to slightly better than the year ago $18.Xmil. I hope you are correct about your 20-21 guesstimate but one could interpret his cc statement several different ways. I sure wish we had a better idea of how the controller deal with Amazon is structured. Perhaps a way to get some insight is to ask some sort of general question in the cc about how these sorts of deals are typically structured?

    If my previous speculation is correct (and its probably not) you might be dead on accurate with your revenue number but way too low on the EPS. My guess is Amazon funded every portion of the controller development and also is fully funding the manufacturing and that Mad Catz simply gets a "royalty" of, for example, $2/unit that is essentially pure profit. Just a guess and a hope and a prayer.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 28, 2014 9:01 AM Flag

    I agree with you 100%. The runway seems clear and we are taxi-ing towards it. Short interest super low, cc upcoming, Needham conf a couple days after, entering the Fall of the year with the strongest ever product line-up, rising tide with new console cycle, some insider buying but no selling, bullish stock spikes in past several months, current year analyst PE of 7, current year Uptab PE of 3, low PS, improving balance sheet that is close to perfect, and on and on and on.....

    I keep thinking I should sell a loser or two and buy more.....probably will.

  • Reply to

    Best news yet! Short interest dropped from

    by uptabdowntab Jul 24, 2014 4:36 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 24, 2014 10:25 PM Flag

    char,

    The Russell rebalance was on June 27th. HTCH volume that day was about 3mil shares and the stock was up a tiny amount. I was anticipating the high volume on that day but didn't really have a feel for which way the stock would lean. What surprised me was that on the next trading day, Monday, June 30th the volume was 1.5mil shares and the stock traded all the way up to 2.7ish. I now believe that was the day when all those shorts were covered. That's what I meant by my statement about understanding.

    Perhaps you are correct that someone played the rebalance. My guess is it was even worse that that and one large fund months ago decided to short the stock to the point where it would be guaranteed to get kicked out of the Russell thereby making more shares available to aid in covering. The Russell is based purely on market cap so it is pretty easy to figure out from year to year where a company's market cap has to be to be either IN or OUT.

    I think (hope is probably a more accurate word) the remaining shorts are far less sophisticated and likely made up of some retailers and maybe multiple small funds. The one that covered on the 30th was likely a very big boy that had all the fire power they wanted to move the stock just about however they wanted. I've never done well betting against shorts so I am always happy when they leave. There are still enough of them to provide a bit of fuel when it turns up.

    You are also right that it is highly unlikely HTCH would cut a check for the entire amount. But guess what, they could if they wanted to and their cash balance is going to be considerably greater than $40mil by the time January rolls around. My main point was that Hutch has some easy options and it will be simple for them to maybe pay off some and refi the other half or something like that. Based on Seagate's cc, I believe Hutch will be cash flow positive in the current J/A/S quarter and beyond.

    Have a good evening.

  • 2,245,000 shares on June 30th to 957,000 on July 15th! The runway is being cleared and we now know what was happening with the huge volume the last couple trading days of June. Tomorrow we see it anyone is paying attention.

  • Reply to

    Just some thoughts .....

    by uptabdowntab Jul 23, 2014 9:22 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 24, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    Hi Tom, Good to read your post. My answers.....

    a. It's a message board and some of the fun is predictions. Have you ever bought a stock without thinking about what you think it should be worth today and what it might be worth at some point in the future? Why buy a stock unless you are certain it is going to increase in value to some sort of target price.

    b. I disagree with your premise that there WILL be plenty of time to buy.... There might be plenty of time, but there might not. Look at previous moves, it can double or triple in value in days and weeks. Even "weeks" is not plenty of time if you are in the middle of Wyoming wilderness chasing elk or in the potholes of N. Dakota shooting ducks.

    c. Maybe, just maybe, a stated prediction might keep the person who bought at $4.20 from doing something very stupid and selling at the current price. Of course it also might have made someone buy too early.....me bad.

    Heska was good to me. Navarre was far better and I truly believe that buying HTCH at $2.12 is the same as buying NAVR at 42 cents. Lastly, if you look closely at the HTCH numbers and listen to the last 6 cc's it is clear, crystal clear that Hutch has made the turn and the next several years are going to be very good.

    I like your "mirror under nose" line. Very funny.

  • Reply to

    Just some thoughts .....

    by uptabdowntab Jul 23, 2014 9:22 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 24, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    And I enjoy your comments as well. Always negative, always mischaracterizing, always exaggerating. But entertaining and consistent. I'm sure as the stock crosses $10 you tell us all how smart you were to have bought at $2. That too is predictable.

  • uptabdowntab by uptabdowntab Jul 23, 2014 9:22 PM Flag

    1. Updated short numbers will be available after 4pm tomorrow, July 24th, on nasdaq website. The mid-July number is going to be interesting no matter what it shows.

    2. Not sure how HTCH reacts to the Aug 1 release of the Apr/May/Jun quarterly results. Results should be nearly identical to the previous quarter, perhaps a wee bit better but very similar. This is what they told us during the last cc.

    3. The outlook for the current quarter, Jul/Aug/Sep, should be considerably stronger and the enthusiasm expressed for Q1, Oct/Nov/Dec should be downright giddy. Zero doubt in my mind that analyst estimates need to rise significantly.

    4. WDC will announce numbers on July 30th, two days ahead of Hutch. Should be a story similar to Seagate's.

    5. Watching the trading quite closely the last couple weeks, it certainly appears to me there is major accumulation going on since all the large quantities appear on the bid side. That said, there are still some obvious sellers-of-size since shares are available and the price typically walks to the bid rather than chasing the ask.

    6. Another potential catalyst to the stock price will be when Hutch announces how they have dealt with the $40mil in debt being put to them in January. Will they simply write a check and pay it off since their ops are generating net cash (about now I'm guessing) or will they refi and push it out. Either way the stock wins.

    7. Though my guesses on the timing of the Seagate ramps have been wrong by about exactly 12 months, here are my guesses for share price: $5 by early November, $12 by July 1st, $18 by Christmas, 2015.

    Cheers.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 23, 2014 6:07 PM Flag

    Well I'll be darned....you're the Asian contagion mei(fud)....the .37 and 30degree C are dead giveaways. We all missed you.

  • Reply to

    Gander Mountain

    by joethius Jul 23, 2014 10:50 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Jul 23, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    I just checked on Gander Mountains website and they only list 6 locations as having the VirTra systems so I think the answer to your question is that GM has either stopped adding them or is doing so at a snail's pace since this is about the same number as a year ago.

    The local GM near me completed a huge renovation a month or so ago and did not put in a virtual range or simulation area. They expanded their gun area by a factor of 3X or 4X though.

TA
9.00+0.07(+0.78%)Jul 30 4:02 PMEDT

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