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Special Diversified Opportunities Inc. Message Board

uptabdowntab 320 posts  |  Last Activity: May 22, 2015 2:59 PM Member since: Jul 1, 1998
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  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab May 22, 2015 2:59 PM Flag

    At the last cc, I thought the CEO was pretty clear. My interpretation of what he said is that Q4 would come in below last year's Q4 with respect to revenue and that there would be a small loss. That's why my guess is 17 or 18mil. With respect to the stock I doubt it matters in any way as long as the number is between 15 and 25mil.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab May 22, 2015 1:50 PM Flag

    HEAR did $19.6mil in Jan/Feb/Mar and incurred a HUGE loss. MCZ will be in this same revenue neighborhood, but probably more like $17 or $18mil (year ago was a bit over $20mil) with a SMALL loss (less than $1mil perhaps). HEAR is really in trouble, their stock has a long way to fall.

    MCZ should be the stock at $1.92 and HEAR at 43 cents......and that too may come to pass.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab May 22, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    You mean you haven't yet cracked the code? After all these years? Pretty simple actually....When the bossdude expresses optimism and hope and expectations of future good things it actually comes true 38% of the time. When the bossdude expresses pessimism, coming pain, and worries then those things actually do come true 100% of the time. Now the good news is that the last several bits of hope were quashed so we are overdue for the current expectations of upcoming glory to actually happen. Meaning, we do not have a 38% chance but instead a 98% chance! .....and shake your shoulders, the chip will fall off!

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab May 22, 2015 11:52 AM Flag

    Ppppssssstttttt.....go back and listen to the last cc, DR told all of us (including you) exactly what the Q4 numbers would be.

    I also take back every bad thing I have said about you recently. My sincerest apologies. I didn't know that you had completely lost your mind. Had I known that you had become a zombie focused on the destruction of MCZ I would have offered up prayers rather than slams. Cheers.

  • Reply to

    Late day price action

    by dugmalus May 19, 2015 6:47 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab May 21, 2015 3:38 PM Flag

    The wins will not come from the smartphone companies, they will come from the 5 - 10 large assemblers of camera modules. Those camera module assemblers then sell the whole "camera insert assy" to the company that assembles the smartphone. Point being, when an announcement is made, it may contain the names of companies that we have never heard of....yet those are the companies that feed into all the super big phone companies.

  • Reply to

    Get Real

    by inveforsale May 20, 2015 9:59 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab May 20, 2015 11:45 PM Flag

    inveforsale, You do own a significant number of shares, likely 10X more than Callan owns right now. I take back what I said earlier about you working for him, I shouldn't have said that. I'm not sure how many other stocks you look at on a daily basis. I at least glance at about 100+ each day and I've followed most to some degree or another for at least 5 - 15 years or more, many are tiny companies about the same size as INVE.

    What I'm leading up to is ....don't get discouraged. With a little patience you will make money on your position in INVE. It might take 6 months or 18 months but the stock will get above your average price.

    I will also say that in the 25+ years I've been investing/trading/following stocks and companies, the market for tiny company stocks has been the ugliest (or maybe inconsistent is a better word) I have ever seen it over the last 8 months or so. Really! Also, don't ever confuse the company with the stock, they are two different things and can be going in radically different directions over the short term (up to 2 years or so in extreme cases).

    Right now I own a fair amount of a number of stocks, but the ones I enjoy posting on and following closely are HTCH, MCZ, and VTSI. Both HTCH and MCZ are almost a certainty to be 5 baggers within a year and HTCH could be a 20 bagger over the next 5. Both companies are going in the right direction (and it is obvious) and have been for about 6 months (MCZ) and 18 months (HTCH) ...yet each of those stocks are near all-time multi-decade lows! Point is, patience. You will eventually be proven correct with INVE.

    I also find it fascinating how these tiny company stocks move and I enjoy making money on them more than making money where it is sometimes easy and obvious. NRZ over the next 6 months will go up 10% and pays a 10% dividend. So I own a bunch of this sort of stuff, but it isn't nearly as fun as stocks like INVE and others.

    Good luck to you.

  • Reply to

    OT: Hey micro, did you buy any

    by uptabdowntab May 20, 2015 3:52 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab May 20, 2015 4:27 PM Flag

    Your points are all good ones. One thing to keep in mind is that hard drives were also a commodity business up until the day when only two companies remained. The final straw was when Seagate bought Maxtor for $1billion.....just to shut them down and eliminate a competitor (my opinion). In hindsight, it was a brilliant move. From that point on, Seagate and WDC profits and revenues and cashflow just continued to rise and rise and rise.

    The HDD suspension world is at the point now where Seagate, WDC, Maxtor were just before Maxtor was taken out. Right now only Hutch, NHK, and TDK/Magnecomp remain. NHK could decide to shutter their business any day since it really doesn't fit with the rest of what they do. TDK/Mag could decide they actually want to make some money and take the approach of buying Hutch (which is now more attractive with the OIS-soon-to-be-business).

    But I admit, none of these are reasons to buy HTCH. You buy HTCH if you believe they will get back to 1/3rd market share and/or if you believe OIS can be a $300- $500mil business for them within several years.

  • uptabdowntab by uptabdowntab May 20, 2015 3:52 PM Flag

    HTCH yet? As an aside, I don't know who he is or where he came from, but I am relatively certain that the stockjockey poster that recently appeared on the HTCH board is correct with the info in his posts regarding Htch. I think he is a little stupid to post it the way he does but so be it. At some point in May, June, July, August the alarm will go off and HTCH will either gap up a buck or three or get there in hours. I suppose the pros among us would still argue that it is smarter to buy after this happens since that will just be the official start of the relentless march upward. Sorry to ramble.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab May 20, 2015 3:06 PM Flag

    They walked the stock up to $21 so they could pull off the secondary at $15. Simple as that and no other reason.

    If they could do it that easily once, they can do it again.....and likely will.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab May 20, 2015 1:47 PM Flag

    Hi g_younit. You are a moron. lexus and inveforsake work with Callan, not worth replying to.

    So, why do I expect INVE will again go to $20? 1. Their balance sheet is strong, much stronger today than when they recently hit $20. 2. Revenue is growing, it will be higher this FY than in the FY in which it hit $20. 3. It is the type of stock in the type of industry that periodically gets hot. 4. Look at the chart, the stock can be walked back to $20 just as easily as it has been walked down to $6. 5. It is in a business where acquisitions and consolidation is common and expected.

    I've said it before, I know very little about their core business and really don't care about it.

    Callan - What a goofball. He owns fewer shares than you, yet you actually care what he thinks? You are also an idiot.

    All of the above is just my uninformed opinion and is my idea of a good time. Cheers.

  • kevinb are pure pieces of garbage. Callan isn't much better. He reminds me of a spoiled pretentious 3 year old who isn't half as smart as he thinks he is. Read his latest letter, it says....."hurry and sell now because I want to get rid of my 12 shares for a slight profit and move on." Callan doesn't even own enough shares to be a significant shareholder, he owns less than several that post on this board. What a crybaby. Unreal. Why not sell and buy something else if so brilliant? Goes for kevinb as well. Just sell and move on.

    Several of you who whine about Hart should look at what he has done over the last year. He has focused the company, he has improved the balance sheet via the secondary, and has signed several deals with impressive partners (Cisco). Even with the lowered guidance for this FY, it still shows excellent growth over last year.

    Sure, he has gotten plenty of free shares. So what? Give him even more I say. The more shares he has the better aligned are his motivations with the rest of us longs.

    Look at the stock chart, it will obviously cross $15 or $20 again within a year. That's a sure thing double or triple from today's price. Jay loves this stuff.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab May 19, 2015 9:14 AM Flag

    Like most things, the answer is .....a buck two eighty.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab May 18, 2015 6:30 PM Flag

    The tide will turn. Always does. FY17 EPS could easily be close to 40 cents and the year starts in 4+ months! FY18 should be well over $1, maybe $1.30ish. Jay loves this stuff!

  • Reply to

    Procedure

    by tracant May 18, 2015 12:14 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab May 18, 2015 3:46 PM Flag

    I would guess they are in the hands of a hand full (or less) of individuals. If you have less than about 3.6million shares you don't need to report.

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab May 18, 2015 3:29 PM Flag

    I believe you. You believe you. No one else (other than the person(s) accumulating today) believes you. The analysts don't believe you.

    Let's assume they launch with 3 customers per your post in the Oct timeframe. Works out nicely since Oct 1 is start of Hutch fiscal year. Pretty easy to see Hutch selling 30 to 50million OIS assys in that FY. 40mil x $2.50 = $100mil in revenue and likely $10mil in earnings. This fits in nicely with what Penn said two cc's ago when he said "tens of millions" of OIS ships in next FY. Also easy to see this is just a start and they could easily ramp to 200+million ships in the following FY......and generate revenue greater than their core HDD susp business!

    The best part of the deal is that HTCH is $2.

  • Reply to

    Procedure

    by tracant May 18, 2015 12:14 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab May 18, 2015 3:19 PM Flag

    Every one of those shares was purchased/placed into the hands of the institutions that bought them on the day the deal closed. None of the volume we have seen since then is any of those shares.

  • Reply to

    1st QTR 2015 Results

    by srowe38 May 15, 2015 9:50 AM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab May 17, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    I have a hard time being disappointed by a 30% increase in revenue no matter how they got there. That said, I was thinking the number would be more like $3mil (once I knew the big one was delayed).

    What struck me were 4 things:

    1. The very last sentence of the PR where Skidmore provided guidance for this FY. That is about the first time I've ever seen VirTra provide guidance. I think these guys do "get it" and given their historical caution this one statement says "relax, everything is cool."

    2. The 34% increase in employees also tells us much bigger revenue numbers are ahead. It was nice that Skidmore's statement also included the word "earnings."

    3. I was very surprised they highlighted the FAAC settlement to that degree. Says to me they put some effort into it and felt it was important. Maybe the balance sheet will show something next quarter?

    4. Modern Round. Not sure what to think. They seem to think it will be a big deal. Why did they record the 0.1mil as earnings? That seemed odd but whatever.

    Bottom line for me....Lots of reasons to buy the stock, not many to sell.

  • Reply to

    Not that it matters in any way, but it sure is

    by uptabdowntab May 14, 2015 4:07 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab May 14, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    I was mostly out of INVE but still have a few shares. I can't even claim that I was lucky to be mostly out of INVE since I used much of that money for HTCH shares at a higher price than where it is today.

    When Hart was reluctant to give a firm number for Q1 at the Q4 cc I sensed it would be a light quarter. But I still really like what Hart has done and even the reduced guidance for this FY is still pretty decent. I also think it is the type of stock that will catch fire at some point this year and it will run higher than seems possible today. The only surprise for me was they reduced full year guidance.

    I didn't listen to the cc today and doubt that I will. Next time it approaches $15 I will probably kiss it good bye. Wish I could be of more help.

  • interesting/curious/surprising how well the stock price seems to have been/is being managed over the last several weeks and through today. Very slight but seemingly relentless upward drift. Super tight range. Not many trades but most are decent sized in terms of number of shares. A whole different vibe than over the previous couple years. I am not sure I would know "accumulation" if it bit me in the .....But this sure does look like it.

  • Reply to

    Has SSD caught up or surpassed HDD?

    by keyes_fred May 13, 2015 4:05 PM
    uptabdowntab uptabdowntab May 14, 2015 12:30 PM Flag

    In my opinion it is two things....#1 The one that did buy it would be perceived as "not playing nice" and these two companies decided to play nice several years ago in my opinion.......#2 Fear of not being able to manage it correctly.

    Of course this is offset by several other factors where one could argue that it makes sense for one of these companies to buy them. Whoever bought them would have super deep and clear insight into the technology and path of the other. It would also give them increased leverage with NHK and/or TDK.

    I've always thought that TDK should buy Hutch. It becomes more likely now with OIS.

    Again though, if you believe that either HDD susp gets back to 33% market share or if you believe OIS will become meaningful, then buy HTCH. If you believe both, then now is the time to buy as many shares as you can.

SDOI
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