I love the sentiment. I own 50k shares and have lost a small fortune so far. But if another company wanted AMRN, they could buy it now for $2 or $3 per share or around $500 MM. Nothing is stopping them and the BODs would have to consider it. There is no controlling shareholder that can hold out for $15. The best we can hope for is some FDA relief and growing scripts at a faster pace to move the stock up to maybe $2 or so until we run out of money.
they had their "two top biotech analysts" chime in on EXEL. One was negative and said that the company was appropriately valued based on its future opportunities, and the other said the same with upside for Meteor and celestial to multiple times the share price, but expected the share count to double due to likely dilution in an equity raise (I guess I am not alone about the dilution concern), and gave a somewhat low probability for Roche stepping in unless the price gets much cheaper as they weren't as bullish on the melanoma market for the combo since it is very competitive.
Fidelity has been an owner of shares for years. They are so big, they have to own everything accross their many funds. Same applies to most of the top 25 buyside firms.
They can especially since there are only about 30 employees, but more likely they will just issue a ton of new ones at the much lower strike price.
The article in SA state that if reduce it fails that the PV is greater than the current market price. I think that assumes that the FDA would not revoke their intial approval for 500 TG. I wonder what makes the author think they won't?
You expect what you want. Hope it works out for you, because I am holding the same bag. But the difference is, I have analyzed it and drew my own conclusions and suggestions. You can disagree, but I thought that the best contributions to the board are multiple opinions that are grounded in facts and experience. How do YOU get past the high dilution risk?
I would be happier if the Bakers bought a big position of the equity (not the debt). They are more focused on opportunities in the small cap biotech space and have made some great calls. When they buy big, the stock typically moves up.
I am happy about this (better than them selling!), but this is peanuts for Fidelity, a couple of million bucks. Somebody at FMR might be as emotional as us about this stock and averaging down. So don't wet your pants.
You are forgetting Meteor and the other trials. Which ones are you saying should be ended? That is what the cash is for. Pay attention!
You are forgetting that they need to spend the cash to complete Meteor at least and the trials in process that follow it. In other words, the cash is spoken for through the Meteor read out. The best solution is to partner with a big pharma or well capitalized BT. Avoid funding the trial costs but share in the successes. Use cash from partnering agreement and miles stones to reinvest in new discovery and to reduce debt. Equitize at reasinable prices some of the debt, preferably the maturing debt. These moves would avoid massive dilution and sustain the company for the long term IMO. That is my view of what the strategy should be.
I believe at last count there is around $350 million of total debt. MTC is nnot going to cover much beyond the interest on the debt and some corporate overhead if they are lucky.
I think that a partnership is much different than an outright sale of assets. I would not advocate an outright asset sale (as compared to a full company sale) as it would reduce pipeline diversity and might not leave much beyond paying down debt, but of course, that depends on what price they get (presumably cobi) verses the future potential. But proceeds from striking a new partnership on cabo indications may have to be shared with Debt holders, which isn't a bad thing (debt reduction). there are still milestone payments to receive and hopefully trials are funded by the partner.
This is a complicating factor here that needs to be considered. there are layers of indebtedness. There is both sub debt and secured debt. The sub debt holders will need to assess whether they are better off (lower recovery) keeping the company going or restructuring? I have not done the analysis yet, but this may determine what happens to the company as much as Meteor. More than likely, the Deerfield debt which matures in 2015 can not be restructured in a manner which is negative to the other debt holders whichout their consent. They could equitize, within the terms of the indenture but they may not be willing to do that earlier if they feel that it could result in lower recovery in default which would be likely IMO.
It truly amazes me that this board has no LT holders that see these issues. Frankly, ST owners should be equally concerned and call IR about it. There has been a plethora of discussion on EXEL's science but little on risk mgt and finance except when that do a capital raise. Unless you are a short, the issues for the company short of a successful Meteor read out will clobber us all. Are the smarter long term contributors to the board unconcerned? I am interested to know. I really don't care about the new kids on the block, and they might all by Jonesy under his latest alias's anyway.
Mgt stated that they have only enough cash to fund through the Meteor read out, or were you not listening. They will be required to fund the rollout of the cobi combo with Roche, in later half of 2015, and they won't have funds to cover the burn rate on additional indications. Do you listen to the company's conference calls? Why do you think the stock hasn't responded to the Cobi read out. I want the stock to go up as much as the next guy, but be prepared for the mother of all EXEL dilutive equity raises if they don't partner up. Smuck.
You talk in circles and then say nothing. I am through with you. You haven't answer the biggest question on liquidity because you cant without undermining your reason for investing in EXEL. I gave you plenty of opportunities. I don't put many people on ignore, but its time for you as of now.