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Array BioPharma Inc. Message Board

urabt2 237 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 hours ago Member since: Jul 28, 1998
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  • Reply to

    A quick note on the Convertible Debt:

    by maxx22xx Jul 1, 2015 9:34 AM

    So if you want to take the big science business risk, and the big financial risk, just go to vegas and play roulette. This company doesn't survive, or our share price certainly doesn't if meteor fails. That is not investing. That is gambling unnecessarily IMO. If you sell shares to dilute, you are diluted no matter how the drug trials perform. If you partner, you dilute only if the drug is successful. If it fails like Comet, you are not diluted. Why is that so hard for you to understand????

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • urabt2 urabt2 Jul 1, 2015 9:38 PM Flag

    Wonder if mgt has given any thought to combining VB-111 with an immunotherapy drug for rGBM? Like the phase 3 drug owned by CLDX which has also had good results? Seems like together they could work togehter for even better results for patients.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A quick note on the Convertible Debt:

    by maxx22xx Jul 1, 2015 9:34 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 1, 2015 7:02 PM Flag

    I am in the bond business professionally, and if I were raising equity, I would have only done best efforts deals like several other biotechs have done (i.e. CLDX did with Canter). Each time they did it, the pps went up, not down. Basically, there is an open registration to raise equity and depending upon supply, they can raise $10 million or hundreds of millions at any point and at a locked in price which dictates investor demand. very efficient way to raise equity. ARRY has used this method as well. Much better than EXEL's robbery method: Stock is high, Goldman leaks and stock declines, EXEL announces without underwritten commitment, stock drops much more, then gets underwriting commitment at sp way off high. This happened over and over again.

    My preferred method for developmental biotech is to keep the share count relatively low. This means little share dilution so if there is a successfully commercialized drug with a large patient profile, or, if there is a buyout, the share price really pops. So to keep the share count low, you dilute in a different fashion. You partner on most of your individual indications, for an upfront payment of cash and/or liquid equity, milesstone payments, and royalties plus options to share some markets (like EXEL correctly did with Cobi). The partner agrees to fund further development and trials etc. This way, EXEL could focus on its raison d'etre, to invent new molecules and drugs to broaden its pipeline. ARRY and many others do this quite well. If anyone knows what happened with ARRY and Novartis, it was brilliant for ARRY. The only way a company fails with this strategy is if they are terrible in the science department. EXEL should be taking science risks and not financial risks. Think about the Comet trials and what they have cost us in dilution? Could you imagine what the sp would be today if that was someone else's money?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A quick note on the Convertible Debt:

    by maxx22xx Jul 1, 2015 9:34 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 1, 2015 12:03 PM Flag

    This is the most liquid bond market in history. The market is not the point. the point is that the stock price is manipulated lower by the significant number of shorts, many of which have no risk due to their ownership of the converts. without the contribution by convert holders to that pool of shorts, perhaps the sp would be higher and we could do a meaningful and less dillutive equity capital raise. Converts are bad for EXEL. The company was badly advised and badly led. Period.

  • Reply to

    A quick note on the Convertible Debt:

    by maxx22xx Jul 1, 2015 9:34 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 1, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    "-companies do not want to lay out the cash for redemption". - Only true if they don't have the cash. Converts can be very dillutive and expensive if the stock is running up. So typically, companies that can afford it do wnat to pay cash to take out the converts.

    Converts are a terrible vehicle for developmental companies like EXEL and lead to excessive short selling without the typical prospect for a short squeeze as convert holders will short the stock usually after some run up in order to achieve a risk free return on the convert investment. In other words, they don't get scared when the stock runs up because they have the implied warrant in the convert, and they don;t get scared about the convert exposure if the stock tanks because the value of their short increases to hedge the convert. Then they are left with the risk free 4.25% coupon to enjoy for four years. What a country!

  • Reply to

    Merger Monday

    by saicinthemoney Jun 20, 2015 2:10 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jun 20, 2015 2:42 PM Flag

    quad options expiry on friday. Lots of stocks had strange movement and volume as a result. I have a handful of biotechs that saw such action such as Xoma and Exel for example.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What is the all time high?

    by retiredceo2002 Jun 20, 2015 1:49 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jun 20, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    $15.81 Dec 1, 2001.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What if...

    by hensley_1957 Jun 19, 2015 10:54 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jun 20, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    last time I checked, we closed over $3.50 yesterday.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • urabt2 urabt2 Jun 19, 2015 1:09 PM Flag

    Yes it has received BTS, but is has yet to file its NDA, so no, it has not been approved by the FDA yet. Still to the facts folks and don't turn this MB into #$%$.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • urabt2 urabt2 Jun 18, 2015 3:52 PM Flag

    People are dying.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    1 Drug Will Make or Break These 3 Biotech Stocks

    by wilderguide Jun 14, 2015 12:40 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jun 15, 2015 2:05 PM Flag

    Slam!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • urabt2 urabt2 Jun 10, 2015 11:37 PM Flag

    I will be hitting the sell execute button right along with you ernie. All 40k shares.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Regeneron/LDL

    by urabt2 Jun 10, 2015 7:27 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jun 10, 2015 11:32 PM Flag

    I don't believe that your view is accurate. The thinking around Triglycerides is evolving and there are many that now believe that Triglycerides play an even great role in heart disease than LDL. Regeneron's drug does not lower Triglycerides, so I don't understand why you believe that their drug would impact Vascepa? Makes no sense.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • So the advisory committee voted FOR approval of Regeneron's new LDL reducing drug. They did so without proof that their drug which helps to loweri LDLs increased overall survival. Though they want to see results of a trial before very wide use. Does this seem like a double standard as compared to Amarin, or is it just me?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • urabt2 urabt2 Jun 9, 2015 10:48 PM Flag

    Well, if METEOR reads out well and Cobi is approved in August, there are two options to deal with the caash need: 1) rake advantage of a higher SP and issue more equity which will likely have a negative-dilutive impact on the SP; or 2) find a partner for METEOR that will pay the company cash for the right to market cabo for this indication in Europe, the US and elsewhere in return for a high upfront cash payment (non-refunable) and a solid royalty rate or partnership.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • urabt2 urabt2 Jun 3, 2015 4:52 PM Flag

    5 week washout.

  • Reply to

    VBLT v CLDX

    by vpg1720 Jun 1, 2015 10:30 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jun 2, 2015 9:06 AM Flag

    Understood, but this is GBM. Everyone is dying. You wouldn't take the chance on doubling you life span if you were faced with this terrible affliction? Many of these are typical for your standard broad spectrum chemo.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    VBLT v CLDX

    by vpg1720 Jun 1, 2015 10:30 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jun 1, 2015 8:25 PM Flag

    Let me put it another way Dorris: There now is greater uncertainty and uncertainty means greater risk. This means caution when buying and risk aversion selling until the market and experts figure it out. Hopefully they figure it out quickly so we see $40.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    VBLT v CLDX

    by vpg1720 Jun 1, 2015 10:30 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jun 1, 2015 8:22 PM Flag

    Perhaps there is still confusion. Will they compete, or will they combo? Right now CLDX is planned to combo with AVASTAN. VBLT demonstrated significantly better performance straight up against AVASTAN and the AVASTAN/Ritenga combo. Yet people are still talking up CLDX, perhaps because of the lead time (ph 3 verses ph 2 for VBLT) and differing strategy (anti-angiogenic vs immunotherapy) which could actually align the two rather than compete with each other. It makes perfect sense to me. Do you have all of this figured out Dorris? I haven't, so as a hedge, I started a position in VBLT.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Today

    by account_1999 Jun 1, 2015 4:08 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jun 1, 2015 8:04 PM Flag

    SO true Ernie. Hopefully IR reads this board once in a while. I know that some BTs do.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

ARRY
6.89-0.13(-1.85%)Jul 2 4:00 PMEDT